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Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,13]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Significance<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We introduce a simple but powerful method for analyzing mortality after a major shock. We apply the method to show, more conclusively than up to now, that Denmark, which imposed a lockdown during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, suffered considerably lower risks of death than Sweden, which did not impose a lockdown. Our method makes short-term forecasts of the number of deaths that would have occurred if the coronavirus pandemic or other health catastrophe had not occurred. By subtracting the forecast counts from actual death counts, excess mortality can be estimated. This can be done by age, sex, and other characteristics. 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