{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,23]],"date-time":"2026-10-23T21:41:28Z","timestamp":1792791688918,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"35","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,23]],"date-time":"2022-02-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1645574400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":184,"URL":"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/site\/aboutpnas\/licenses.xhtml"}],"funder":[{"name":"Provveditorato for the Public Works of Veneto, Trentino Alto Adige and Friuli Venezia Giulia","award":["Venice 2021"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Venice 2021"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04bqtg656","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000104","name":"NASA","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NNX15AP74G"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NNX15AP74G"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000104","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Observational knowledge of the epidemic intensity, defined as the number of deaths divided by global population and epidemic duration, and of the rate of emergence of infectious disease outbreaks is necessary to test theory and models and to inform public health risk assessment by quantifying the probability of extreme pandemics such as COVID-19. Despite its significance, assembling and analyzing a comprehensive global historical record spanning a variety of diseases remains an unexplored task. A global dataset of historical epidemics from 1600 to present is here compiled and examined using novel statistical methods to estimate the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics. Historical observations covering four orders of magnitude of epidemic intensity follow a common probability distribution with a slowly decaying power-law tail (generalized Pareto distribution, asymptotic exponent = \u22120.71). The yearly number of epidemics varies ninefold and shows systematic trends. Yearly occurrence probabilities of extreme epidemics, P\n                    <jats:sub>y<\/jats:sub>\n                    , vary widely: P\n                    <jats:sub>y<\/jats:sub>\n                    of an event with the intensity of the \u201cSpanish influenza\u201d (1918 to 1920) varies between 0.11 and 0.89% from 1600 to present, while its mean recurrence time today is 879 y (95% CI: 730 to 1081 y). The slow decay of probability with epidemic intensity implies that extreme epidemics are relatively likely, a property previously undetected due to short observational records and stationary analysis methods. Using recent estimates of the rate of increase in disease emergence from zoonotic reservoirs associated with environmental change, we estimate that the yearly probability of occurrence of extreme epidemics can increase up to threefold in the coming decades.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2105482118","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]],"date-time":"2021-08-23T16:27:10Z","timestamp":1629736030000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":528,"title":["Intensity and frequency of extreme novel epidemics"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"118","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1493-6913","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marco","family":"Marani","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Padova, 35122 Padova, Italy;"},{"name":"Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710;"},{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9768-3693","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabriel G.","family":"Katul","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710;"},{"name":"Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7407-7399","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"William K.","family":"Pan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710;"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1046-6790","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anthony J.","family":"Parolari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, Marquette University, Milwaukee, WI 53233"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1151915"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-014-1254-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","first-page":"1371","volume-title":"History of International Public Health, vol. 6","author":"Fenner F.","year":"1988","unstructured":"F. Fenner, D. A. Henderson, I. Arita, Z. Jezek, I. D. Ladnyi, \u201cSmallpox and its eradication\u201d in History of International Public Health, vol. 6 (World Health Organization, Geneva, 1988), pp. 1371\u20131409."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","first-page":"4","article-title":"The geography and mortality of the 1918 influenza pandemic","volume":"65","author":"Patterson K. D.","year":"1991","unstructured":"K. D. Patterson, G. F. Pyle, The geography and mortality of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Bull. Hist. Med. 65, 4\u201321 (1991).","journal-title":"Bull. Hist. Med."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","volume-title":"Plagues and Peoples","author":"McNeill W.","year":"1998","unstructured":"W. McNeill, Plagues and Peoples (Anchor Books, 1998)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","volume-title":"Encyclopedia of Plague & Pestilence","author":"Kohn G. C.","year":"1999","unstructured":"G. C. Kohn, Encyclopedia of Plague & Pestilence (Wordsworth, 1999)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","volume-title":"The Dead and the Living in Paris and London, 1500\u20131670","author":"Harding V.","year":"2007","unstructured":"V. Harding, The Dead and the Living in Paris and London, 1500\u20131670 (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","unstructured":"M. Marani G. Katul W. Pan A. Parolari A global epidemics dataset (1500\u20132020) (2021). Zenodo. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.4626111. Deposited 28 March 2021."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-012373944-5.00320-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","volume-title":"Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences","author":"Sornette D.","year":"2006","unstructured":"D. Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences (Springer, ed. 2, 2006).","edition":"2"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4471-3675-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41567-020-0921-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.advwatres.2015.03.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","first-page":"1","volume-title":"Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty","author":"Madhav W. N.","year":"2017","unstructured":"W. N. Madhav, B. Oppenheim, M. Gallivan, P. Mulembakani, E. Rubin, \u201cPandemics: Risks, impacts, and mitigation\u201d in Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, D. T. Jamison., Eds. (The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development\/The World Bank, 3rd ed., 2017), pp. 1\u201347.","edition":"3"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1086726"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/srep03710"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature06536"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0001-706X(00)00179-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_19_2","unstructured":"COVID-19 data repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University. GitHub. https:\/\/github.com\/CSSEGISandData\/COVID-19. Accessed 12 July 2021."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2004978117"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2173881"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0047-2484(80)90099-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_23_2","first-page":"162","article-title":"End of the Migration Epoch?","volume":"4","author":"Tanton J.","year":"1994","unstructured":"J. Tanton, End of the Migration Epoch? Soc. Contract 4, 162\u2013174 (1994).","journal-title":"Soc. Contract"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1787\/9789264104143-en"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1466-8238.2010.00587.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2019.2736"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-020-2562-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cell.2020.08.021"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1927.10502953"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2302169120","type":"correction","label":"Correction","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]],"date-time":"2023-03-14T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1678752000000}}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"http:\/\/www.pnas.org\/syndication\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2105482118","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.2105482118","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,14]],"date-time":"2023-03-14T14:19:16Z","timestamp":1678803556000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2105482118"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"35","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,31]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.2105482118"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2105482118","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,23]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2021-08-23","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2105482118"}}