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This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models\u2019 responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. 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