{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,26]],"date-time":"2026-08-26T08:05:56Z","timestamp":1787731556622,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":74,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,13]],"date-time":"2023-02-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1676246400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014822","name":"Notsew Orm Sands Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["REF: Alison P. Galvani"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["REF: Alison P. Galvani"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014822","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Canadian Institute of Health Research, COVID-19 Rapid Research","award":["OV4-170643"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OV4-170643"]}]},{"name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Council of Canada, Emerging Infectious Disease Modeling","award":["MIPH"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MIPH"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,21]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has displaced more than a quarter of the population. Assessing disease burdens among displaced people is instrumental in informing global public health and humanitarian aid efforts. We estimated the disease burden in Ukrainians displaced both within Ukraine and to other countries by combining a spatiotemporal model of forcible displacement with age- and gender-specific estimates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, cancer, HIV, and tuberculosis (TB) in each of Ukraine\u2019s 629 raions (i.e., districts). Among displaced Ukrainians as of May 13, we estimated that more than 2.63 million have CVDs, at least 615,000 have diabetes, and over 98,500 have cancer. In addition, more than 86,000 forcibly displaced individuals are living with HIV, and approximately 13,500 have TB. We estimated that the disease prevalence among refugees was lower than the national disease prevalence before the invasion. Accounting for internal displacement and healthcare facilities impacted by the conflict, we estimated that the number of people per hospital has increased by more than two-fold in some areas. As regional healthcare systems come under increasing strain, these estimates can inform the allocation of critical resources under shifting disease burdens.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2215424120","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,13]],"date-time":"2023-02-13T15:11:51Z","timestamp":1676301111000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":38,"title":["Disease burden among Ukrainians forcibly displaced by the 2022 Russian invasion"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"120","author":[{"given":"Abhishek","family":"Pandey","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1370-8350","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chad R.","family":"Wells","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7202-6846","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Valentyn","family":"Stadnytskyi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Laboratory of Chemical Physics, NIDDK, NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4414-0227","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Seyed M.","family":"Moghadas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada, M3J 1P3"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1653-0658","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Madhav V.","family":"Marathe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Network Systems Science and Advanced Computing Division, Biocomplexity Institute, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904"},{"name":"Department of Computer Science,\u00a0University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, 22904"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8936-5871","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pratha","family":"Sah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"William","family":"Crystal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lauren Ancel","family":"Meyers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5295-5971","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Burton H.","family":"Singer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olena","family":"Nesterova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ukrainian Institute for Public Health Research, Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 04071"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alison P.","family":"Galvani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,2,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","unstructured":"Ukraine refugee situation. 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