{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,8]],"date-time":"2026-10-08T06:57:13Z","timestamp":1791442633296,"version":"4.3.3"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"43","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,16]],"date-time":"2023-10-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1697414400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,24]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Orbital space enables many essential services, such as weather forecasting, global communication, navigation, Earth observation for environmental and agricultural management, and national security applications. Orbit use is increasingly defined by firms launching coordinated fleets\u2014\u201cconstellations\u201d\u2014of satellites into low-Earth orbit. These firms operate in markets with few or no competitors, such as the market for broadband internet provision to rural areas. How will oligopolistic competition shape the allocation of orbital space? We analyze orbital-use patterns and economic welfare when two profit-maximizing firms operate satellite constellations with sophisticated collision avoidance systems. We compare this duopoly equilibrium to public utility constellations designed and regulated to maximize economic welfare from orbit use. We show that imperfect competition reduces economic welfare from orbit use by up to 12%\u2014$1.1 billion USD\u2014per year and distorts the allocation of orbital space. The nature of the distortion depends on the magnitude of constellation-related environmental damages. When damages are low, economic welfare is maximized by larger-than-equilibrium constellations. When damages are high, economic welfare is maximized by smaller-than-equilibrium constellations. Between the growing commercial and national interests in outer space and the importance of low-Earth orbit to space exploration, orbit-use management is likely to be a fruitful and policy-relevant area for economic research. We conclude with a discussion of future research directions in orbit-use management relevant to policymakers around the world.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2221343120","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,16]],"date-time":"2023-10-16T15:13:23Z","timestamp":1697469203000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Oligopoly competition between satellite constellations will reduce economic welfare from orbit use"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"120","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6505-8594","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Julien","family":"Guyot","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Bordeaux School of Economics UMR 6060, Bordeaux University, Avenue Duguit, 33608 Pessac cedex, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1857-0082","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Akhil","family":"Rao","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT 05753"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"S\u00e9bastien","family":"Rouillon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Bordeaux School of Economics UMR 6060, Bordeaux University, Avenue Duguit, 33608 Pessac cedex, France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41550-020-01224-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","unstructured":"USSPACECOM Space-Track.org (2022). https:\/\/www.space-track.org. Accessed 26 December 2022."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","unstructured":"UCS UCS satellite database (2022). https:\/\/www.ucsusa.org\/resources\/satellite-database. Accessed 26 December 2022."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41550-020-01238-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41550-020-01227-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","volume-title":"Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference Proceedings","author":"D\u2019Ambrosio A.","year":"2022","unstructured":"A. D\u2019Ambrosio, M. Lifson, D. Jang, C. Pasiecznik, R. Linares, \u201cProjected orbital demand and leo environmental capacity\u201d in Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies Conference Proceedings, Maui Economic Development Board, Ed. (AMOS conference, 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","unstructured":"M. Lifson A. D\u2019Ambrosio D. Arnas R. Linares \u201cHow many satellites can we fit in low earth orbit?: Capacity integrating risk-based and intrinsic methods\u201d in Astrodynamics Specialist Conference Maui Economic Development Board Ed. (AMOS conference 2022)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.asr.2020.04.021"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jsse.2020.06.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actaastro.2016.11.021"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-89909-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41550-022-01718-8"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2021EF002612"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spacepol.2010.12.019"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10640-013-9758-4"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actaastro.2015.05.006"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_17_2","first-page":"233","article-title":"Regulating the space commons: Treating space debris as abandoned property in violation of the outer space treaty","volume":"19","author":"Mu\u00f1oz-Patchen C.","year":"2018","unstructured":"C. Mu\u00f1oz-Patchen, Regulating the space commons: Treating space debris as abandoned property in violation of the outer space treaty. Chicago J. Int. Law 19, 233 (2018).","journal-title":"Chicago J. Int. Law"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10640-019-00320-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_19_2","first-page":"221","article-title":"Major federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the space environment: Applying NEPA to federal and federally authorized outer space activities","volume":"44","author":"Gilbert A. Q.","year":"2020","unstructured":"A. Q. Gilbert, M. Vidaurri, Major federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the space environment: Applying NEPA to federal and federally authorized outer space activities. Environs 44, 221 (2020).","journal-title":"Environs"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10640-020-00515-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1921260117"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spacepol.2021.101471"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_23_2","volume-title":"7th Space Traffic Management Conference Virtual Conference","author":"Lifson M.","year":"2021","unstructured":"M. Lifson, R. Linares, \u201cAn advance market commitment program for low earth orbit active debris removal\u201d in 7th Space Traffic Management Conference Virtual Conference, International Academy of Astronautics, Ed. (STM virtual conference, 2021)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0022-0531(82)90096-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1756-2171.2008.00008.x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/app.20150310"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3003416"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_28_2","first-page":"675","article-title":"Environmental economics: A survey","volume":"30","author":"Cropper M. L.","year":"1992","unstructured":"M. L. Cropper, W. E. Oates, Environmental economics: A survey. J. Econ. Literat. 30, 675\u2013740 (1992).","journal-title":"J. Econ. Literat."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_29_2","first-page":"3","article-title":"Conservation through collusion: Antitrust as an obstacle to marine resource conservation","volume":"61","author":"Adler J. H.","year":"2004","unstructured":"J. H. Adler, Conservation through collusion: Antitrust as an obstacle to marine resource conservation. Wash. Lee L. Rev. 61, 3 (2004).","journal-title":"Wash. Lee L. Rev."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1518509113"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.32.2.173"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_32_2","first-page":"1037","article-title":"The Pigouvian tax rule under monopoly","volume":"70","author":"Barnett A. H.","year":"1980","unstructured":"A. H. Barnett, The Pigouvian tax rule under monopoly. Am. Econ. Rev. 70, 1037\u20131041 (1980).","journal-title":"Am. Econ. Rev."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2234517"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3440871"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_35_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2950501"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_36_2","unstructured":"Ookla Starlink slowed in Q2 competitors mounting challenges (2022). https:\/\/www.ookla.com\/articles\/starlink-hughesnet-viasat-performance-q2-2022. Accessed 20 December 2022."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_37_2","unstructured":"T. Butash R. Rusch Low-earth orbit megaconstellations reach record capacity (2021). https:\/\/aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org\/year-in-review\/low-earth-orbit-megaconstellations-reach-record-capacity\/. Accessed 20 December 2022."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_38_2","unstructured":"US Department of Justice Herfindahl\u2013Hirschman index (2018). https:\/\/www.justice.gov\/atr\/herfindahl-hirschman-index. Accessed 19 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_39_2","unstructured":"Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee \u201cIADC statement on large constellations of satellites in low-earth orbit\u201d (Tech. Rep. 2017)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_40_2","unstructured":"H. Lewis \u201cThe reporting by SpaceX suggests that Starlink satellites (in total) are currently performing about 75 collision avoidance manoeuvres each day with the simple extrapolation the number could be 1~ 000 per day by the end of 2027 [4\/n]\u201d (2022). https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProfHughLewis\/status\/1610308012475834370. Posted 3 January 2023. Accessed 4 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781316165270"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_42_2","unstructured":"B. Wang SpaceX Starlink satellites could cost \\250 000eachandFalcon9costslessthan30 million (2019). https:\/\/www.nextbigfuture.com\/2019\/12\/spacex-starlink-satellites-cost-well-below-500000-each-and-falcon-9-launches-less-than-30-million.html. Accessed 20 December 2022."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2021.3119634"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_44_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3003293"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_45_2","first-page":"69","article-title":"Stackelberg and Marshall","volume":"80","author":"Robson A. J.","year":"1990","unstructured":"A. J. Robson, Stackelberg and Marshall. Am. Econ. Rev. 80, 69\u201382 (1990).","journal-title":"Am. Econ. Rev."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_46_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.infoecopol.2018.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_47_2","first-page":"393","article-title":"Vertical product differentiation: Some basic themes","volume":"76","author":"Sutton J.","year":"1986","unstructured":"J. Sutton, Vertical product differentiation: Some basic themes. Am. Econ. Rev. 76, 393\u2013398 (1986).","journal-title":"Am. Econ. Rev."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_48_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2098408"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_49_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-349-06361-1_12"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_50_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0167-7187(92)90052-Z"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_51_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0165-1889(93)90052-T"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_52_2","unstructured":"C. Daehnick I. Klinghoffer B. Maritz B. Wiseman Large LEO Satellite Constellations: Will It be Different This Time (McKinsey Company 2020) vol. 4."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_53_2","unstructured":"R. Staff British satellite firm OneWeb emerges from bankruptcy (2020). https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/oneweb-bankruptcy-idUSL4N2I63KF. Accessed 5 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_54_2","unstructured":"IADC \u201cIADC space debris mitigation guidelines\u201d (Tech. Rep. IADC-02-01 2007)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_55_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.actaastro.2020.01.035"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclepro.2020.120209"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_57_2","unstructured":"Economist staff Starlink\u2019s performance in Ukraine has ignited a new space race (2022). https:\/\/www.economist.com\/leaders\/2023\/01\/05\/starlinks-performance-in-ukraine-has-ignited-a-new-space-race. Accessed 5 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_58_2","unstructured":"E. staff Britain\u2019s government bailed out OneWeb in 2020. Now it\u2019s in trouble (2022). https:\/\/www.economist.com\/britain\/2022\/03\/12\/britains-government-bailed-out-oneweb-in-2020-now-its-in-trouble. Accessed 5 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_59_2","unstructured":"Council of the EU Council and European Parliament agree on boosting secure communications with a new satellite system (2022). https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2022\/11\/17\/council-and-european-parliament-agree-on-boosting-secure-communications-with-a-new-satellite-system\/. Accessed 5 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_60_2","unstructured":"A. Jones China\u2019s megaconstellation project establishes satellite cluster in Chongqing (2022). https:\/\/ spacenews.com\/chinas-megaconstellation-project-establishes-satellite-cluster-in-chongqing\/. Accessed 5 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_61_2","unstructured":"U Department for Business Energy& Industrial Strategy The Rt Hon Alok Sharma KCMG MP UK government secures satellite network OneWeb (2020). https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/uk-government-secures-satellite-network-oneweb. Accessed 5 January 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_62_2","unstructured":"N National Coordination Office for Space-Based Positioning Timing GPS.gov (2021). https:\/\/www. gps.gov\/systems\/gps\/. Accessed 1 May 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_63_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-981-10-3713-9_5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_64_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0014-2921(94)90046-9"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_65_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2202\/1446-9022.1181"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_66_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20131377"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_67_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4337\/9781788112789.00019"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_68_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijindorg.2018.12.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_69_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20172034"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_70_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.15000024"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_71_2","unstructured":"UNO for Disarmament Affairs \u201cTreaty on principles governing the activities of states in the exploration and use of outer space including the moon and other celestial bodies\u201d (UNODA Tech. Rep. 1967)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_72_2","unstructured":"J. Guyot A. Rao S. Rouillon Replication package for \u201cOligopoly competition between satellite constellations will reduce economic welfare from orbit use\u201d. Middlebury Institutional Repository. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.57968\/Middlebury.23816994.v1. Deposited 1 August 2023."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_73_2","unstructured":"A. Rao E. Berner G. Lewis Preparing a satellite-operator-year panel from UCS and Space-Track data. Middlebury Institutional Repository. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.57968\/Middlebury.23982468.v1. Deposited 2 September 2023."}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.2221343120","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,16]],"date-time":"2023-10-16T15:14:40Z","timestamp":1697469280000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2221343120"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,16]]},"references-count":73,"journal-issue":{"issue":"43","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,24]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.2221343120"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2221343120","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,16]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-01-20","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-07-11","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-10-16","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2221343120"}}