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Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Arctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play\u2014for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines\u2014have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes\u2019 impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska\u2019s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2409411121","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,3]],"date-time":"2024-12-03T13:40:03Z","timestamp":1733233203000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":40,"title":["Permafrost thaw subsidence, sea-level rise, and erosion are transforming Alaska\u2019s Arctic coastal zone"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"121","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6382-6545","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Roger","family":"Creel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Physical Oceanography","place":["Falmouth"]},{"name":"Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution","place":["Falmouth"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julia","family":"Guimond","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering","place":["Falmouth"]},{"name":"Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution","place":["Falmouth"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1517-4711","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Benjamin M.","family":"Jones","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Northern Engineering","place":["Fairbanks"]},{"name":"University of Alaska","place":["Fairbanks"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4201-0373","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David M.","family":"Nielsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Climate Variability","place":["Hamburg, Germany"]},{"name":"Max Planck Institute for Meteorology","place":["Hamburg, Germany"]},{"name":"Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability","place":["Hamburg, Germany"]},{"name":"University of Hamburg","place":["Hamburg, Germany"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6059-3771","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emily","family":"Bristol","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Marine Science Institute","place":["Austin"]},{"name":"College of Natural Sciences, University of Texas at Austin","place":["Austin"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Craig E.","family":"Tweedie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biological Sciences","place":["El Paso"]},{"name":"University of Texas at El Paso","place":["El Paso"]},{"name":"Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Program","place":["El Paso"]},{"name":"University of Texas at El Paso","place":["El Paso"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Pier Paul","family":"Overduin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Permafrost Section","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43247-022-00498-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-021-00232-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-024-58270-w"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2013EF000162"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"J. Overbeck R. Buzard M. Turner K. Miller R. Glenn \u201cShoreline change at Alaska coastal communities\u201d (Tech. Rep. RI 2020\u201310 Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys 2020).","DOI":"10.14509\/30552"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/211190"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","unstructured":"B. M. Jones \u201cArctic report card 2020: Coastal permafrost erosion\u201d (ID #27897 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2020). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.25923\/e47w-dw52."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10889378809377343"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10889378809377352"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2112\/JCOASTRES-D-22-00093.1"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/1088937X.2020.1755907"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","first-page":"F03023","article-title":"InSAR measurements of surface deformation over permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska","volume":"115","author":"Liu L.","year":"2010","unstructured":"L. Liu, T. Zhang, J. Wahr, InSAR measurements of surface deformation over permafrost on the North Slope of Alaska. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 115, F03023 (2010).","journal-title":"J. Geophys. Res. 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Grunblatt, D. Atwood, Mapping lakes for winter liquid water availability using SAR on the North Slope of Alaska. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. 27, 63\u201369 (2014).","journal-title":"Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01281-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2018.58"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_30_2","unstructured":"W. V. Sweet \u201cGlobal and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States: Updated mean projections and extreme water level probabilities along U.S. coastlines\u201d (NOAA Tech. Rep. 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Rolf I. Gr\u00fcnberg J. Hammar J. Boike \u201cQuantifying thaw subsidence in a permafrost landscape\u201d (Tech. Rep. 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H. Erikson \u201cChanging storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island-lagoon system-A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon eastern Arctic Alaska\u201d (Tech. Rep. 2020\u20131142 U.S. Geological Survey 2020).","DOI":"10.3133\/ofr20201142"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_53_2","first-page":"361","article-title":"Modern erosion rates and loss of coastal features and sites, Beaufort Sea coastline, Alaska","volume":"61","author":"Jones B. M.","year":"2008","unstructured":"B. M. Jones, K. M. Hinkel, C. D. Arp, W. R. Eisner, Modern erosion rates and loss of coastal features and sites, Beaufort Sea coastline, Alaska. 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