{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,22]],"date-time":"2026-07-22T22:54:50Z","timestamp":1784760890149,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"30","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1753401600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100008995","name":"Balzan Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["n\/a"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["n\/a"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100008995","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,29]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Climate change caused by carbon pollution from the world\u2019s largest economies poses an existential threat to small-island states and territories this century. These places bear virtually no responsibility for climate change but will face sea-level rise, fresh water resource degradation, and intensified storms that will kill or dislocate exposed publics, and damage local economies. To alleviate this crisis, the global community has begun discussing who is responsible for climate mitigation and adaptation costs for those affected by climate change, in addition to continued debates around the distribution of responsibility for climate change. Missing from this analysis, however, are systematic efforts to elicit the preferences and perceptions of publics in these threatened small-island states and territories. Here, we report results from a large-sample (n\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" id=\"i1\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mo>=<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    14,710) cross-national survey of publics living in climate-vulnerable states and territories, conducted in June\u2013July 2022. By quota sampling through Facebook\u2019s ad platform, we generate survey samples at the national or territorial level for publics in 55 small-island states, territories, and subnational regions in the South Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Caribbean. We find widespread awareness and concern about the threat posed by climate change and sea-level rise, in contrast to what existing research finds in the Global North. We also find that climate-vulnerable publics believe their home governments, large polluters, and former colonial powers are all responsible for helping to manage the climate crisis, irrespective of these actors\u2019 relative carbon emissions. These findings fill an important gap by depicting climate beliefs among the communities at the frontlines of climate change.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2415324122","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T16:54:45Z","timestamp":1753462485000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["How publics in small-island states view climate change and international responses to it"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"122","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5784-435X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matto","family":"Mildenberger","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["Santa Barbara"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Santa Barbara"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sara M.","family":"Constantino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Social Sciences, Doerr School of Sustainability","place":["Stanford"]},{"name":"Stanford University","place":["Stanford"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3172-8478","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Paasha","family":"Mahdavi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["Santa Barbara"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Santa Barbara"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0572-4764","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Parrish","family":"Bergquist","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["Philadelphia"]},{"name":"University of Pennsylvania","place":["Philadelphia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1940-7778","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gabriel","family":"De Roche","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["San Diego"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["San Diego"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8466-0545","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emma","family":"Franzblau","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["Los Angeles"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Los Angeles"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cesar","family":"Martinez-Alvarez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["Santa Barbara"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Santa Barbara"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ingmar","family":"Sturm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Political Science","place":["Santa Barbara"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Santa Barbara"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-006-0329-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.009"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-019-0405-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","article-title":"Yale climate opinion maps 2020","volume":"2","author":"Marlon J.","year":"2020","unstructured":"J. Marlon, P. Howe, M. Mildenberger, A. Leiserowitz, X. Wang, \u201cYale climate opinion maps 2020\u201d in Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (2020), vol. 2.","journal-title":"Yale Program on Climate Change Communication"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2583"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","unstructured":"P. Bergquist C. Vandeweerdt M. Mildenberger P. Howe J. Marlon Global geographic variation in climate concern at national and sub-national scales. OSF [Preprint] (2025). https:\/\/osf.io\/6ye59\/ (Accessed 3 July 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-environ-012320-083355"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1057\/978-1-137-42724-3_40"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/9781108800051"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","first-page":"1079","article-title":"Sharing the pain: Perceptions of fairness affect private and public response to hazards","volume":"106","author":"Adger W. N.","year":"2016","unstructured":"W. N. Adger, T. Quinn, I. Lorenzoni, C. Murphy, Sharing the pain: Perceptions of fairness affect private and public response to hazards. Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr. 106, 1079\u20131096 (2016).","journal-title":"Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7208\/chicago\/9780226012896.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2937"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-020-0691-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2006.10.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/a0018963"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jenvp.2016.04.004"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_17_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab466a"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_18_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s44168-024-00136-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_19_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsci.2017.04.011"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-014-1091-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_21_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10584-017-1959-3"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_22_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-023-37130-7"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_23_2","unstructured":"UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (S. Treaty Doc No. 102-38 1771 U.N.T.S. 107) (1992). Available at https:\/\/unfccc.int\/resource\/docs\/convkp\/conveng.pdf. Accessed September 15 2024."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_24_2","unstructured":"UNFCCC Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (T.I.A.S. No. 16-1104) (2015). Available at https:\/\/unfccc.int\/sites\/default\/files\/english_paris_agreement.pdf. Accessed September 15 2024."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0192512111406095"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780197508893.001.0001"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_27_2","unstructured":"A. Leiserowitz Climate change in the American mind April 2022 (2022). https:\/\/climatecommunication.yale.edu\/publications\/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-april-2022\/toc\/3\/. Accessed 19 June 2025."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2019.01.002"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-024-01380-0"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"A. Agrawal C. McSweeney N. Perrin Local Institutions and Climate Change Adaptation (Social Development Notes 113 World Bank Washington D.C. 2008).","DOI":"10.1596\/11145"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1203282109"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2018211118"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/psrm.2018.49"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_35_2","unstructured":"L. Rosenzweig P. Bergquist K. H. Pham F. Rampazzo M. Mildenberger Survey sampling in the global south using Facebook advertisements. Political Sci. Res. Methods in press."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_36_2","unstructured":"M. Mildenberger \u201cReplication data for - How publics in small island states view climate change and international responses to it.\u201d Harvard Dataverse. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7910\/DVN\/YC97YF. Deposited 21 June 2025."}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.2415324122","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]],"date-time":"2025-07-25T16:54:48Z","timestamp":1753462488000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2415324122"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"30","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,29]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.2415324122"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2415324122","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-10-04","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-05-29","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-07-25","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2415324122"}}