{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T17:47:29Z","timestamp":1787939249309,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":56,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,31]],"date-time":"2025-03-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1743379200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006238","name":"CNRA | California Department of Fish and Wildlife","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Q1996052"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Q1996052"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006238","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CZP EAR-1331940"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CZP EAR-1331940"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Climate change is redistributing life on Earth, with profound impacts for ecosystems and human well-being. While repeat surveys separated by multidecadal intervals can determine whether observed shifts are in the expected direction (e.g., poleward or upslope due to climate change), they do not reveal their mechanisms or time scales: whether they were gradual responses to environmental trends or punctuated responses to disturbance events. Here, we document population reductions and temporary range contractions at multiple sites resulting from drought for three Pacific salmonids at their ranges\u2019 trailing edge. During California\u2019s 2012 to 2016 historic multiyear drought, the 2013 to 2014 winter stood apart because rainfall was both reduced and delayed. Extremely low river flows during the breeding season (\u201cflow\u2013phenology mismatch\u201d) reduced or precluded access to breeding habitat. While Chinook (\n                    <jats:italic>Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)<\/jats:italic>\n                    experienced a down-river range shift, entire cohorts failed in individual tributaries (steelhead trout,\n                    <jats:italic>O. mykiss<\/jats:italic>\n                    ) and in entire watersheds (coho salmon,\n                    <jats:italic>O. kisutch)<\/jats:italic>\n                    . Salmonids returned to impacted sites in subsequent years, rescued by reserves in the ocean, life history diversity, and, in one case, a conservation broodstock program. Large population losses can, however, leave trailing-edge populations vulnerable to extinction due to demographic stochasticity, making permanent range contraction more likely. When only a few large storms occur during high flow season, the timing of particular storms plays an outsized role in determining which migratory fish species are able to access their riverine breeding grounds and persist.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2415670122","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,31]],"date-time":"2025-03-31T15:01:18Z","timestamp":1743433278000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Anatomy of a range contraction: Flow\u2013phenology mismatches threaten salmonid fishes near their trailing edge"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"122","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3055-6483","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stephanie M.","family":"Carlson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California","place":["Berkeley"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0664-9594","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kasey C.","family":"Pregler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California","place":["Berkeley"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0515-874X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mariska","family":"Obedzinski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California","place":["Berkeley"]},{"name":"California Sea Grant","place":["Santa Rosa"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sean P.","family":"Gallagher","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"California Department of Fish and Wildlife","place":["Fort Bragg"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4632-6263","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Suzanne J.","family":"Rhoades","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California","place":["Berkeley"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4363-237X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cleo","family":"Woelfle-Hazard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science, Policy, & Management, University of California","place":["Berkeley"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nathan","family":"Queener","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mattole Salmon Group","place":["Petrolia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sally E.","family":"Thompson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Civil, Environmental, and Mining Engineering, University of Western Australia","place":["Perth, Australia"]},{"name":"Centre for Water and Spatial Science, University of Western Australia","place":["Perth, Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7894-1017","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mary E.","family":"Power","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Integrative Biology, University of California","place":["Berkeley"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature01286"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1111322"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41559-020-1198-2"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.aai9214"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.267.5198.672"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1163428"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/gcb.17271"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s43017-024-00527-z"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0904946106"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.95.25.14839"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rspb.2012.2829"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","volume-title":"Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. 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Carlson Anatomy of a range contraction: Flow-phenology mismatches threaten salmonid fishes near their trailing edge [Dataset]. Dryad. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5061\/dryad.6wwpzgn72. Deposited 14 March 2025."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_56_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"S. Kelson M. Power J. Finlay S. Carlson Partial migration alters population ecology and food chain length: Evidence from a salmonid fish [Dataset]. Dryad. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.6078\/D18T2S. 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