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Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Understanding what and who shapes urban growth and how it unfolds in the Global South is critical to ensure theories and predictive models of urban expansion and, consequently, global environmental change, are salient to contemporary contexts. Much of the urban expansion in the Global South occurs in informal settlements where urbanization is not officially permitted and residents often lack access to basic services and infrastructure. As a result, formalizing settlements becomes an asset for political transactions where politicians provide titles and improve conditions in exchange for residents\u2019 votes. Yet the cumulative effect of these political transactions on land change remains unknown, rendering electoral dynamics absent from land system science models of urbanization. Here we use panel regression to examine the influence of electoral cycles and voting patterns on urban expansion and formalization of property titles from 1997\u20132015 in Mexico City. We find the distribution of land titles to residents increases in the months leading up to local elections, and more titles are given to core voting neighborhoods of the historically dominant party. Furthermore, urban built-up area increases in districts with higher electoral competition. These results demonstrate that electoral politics influence when and where the legal city boundary expands, who can access secure tenure, and potentially which settlements grow. These results imply sociopolitical dynamics shape urban sustainability. Incorporating quantified links between political dynamics and urban expansion could improve models of future urban growth and identify relevant levers to improve urban sustainability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2421303123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T19:11:12Z","timestamp":1779131472000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Electoral politics influence expansion and titling of informal urban settlements"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3026-6435","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Beth","family":"Tellman","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01y2jtd41","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison","place":["Madison"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6821-473X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Meha","family":"Jain","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00jmfr291","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan","place":["Ann Arbor"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8253-1320","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hallie","family":"Eakin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03efmqc40","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Sustainability, Arizona State University","place":["Tempe"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8988-170X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dylan","family":"Connor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03efmqc40","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University","place":["Tempe"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Felipe","family":"de Alba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Estudios Sociales y de Opini\u00f3n P\u00fablica","place":["Ciudad de M\u00e9xico, M\u00e9xico 01303"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","unstructured":"United National Department for Economic and Social Affairs \u201cWorld urbanization prospects 2018: Highlights\u201d (ST\/ESA\/SER.A\/421 ST\/ESA\/SER.A\/421 United Nations New York 2019)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","unstructured":"United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development \u201cInformal settlements\u201d (Habitat III Issue Paper 22 United Nations New York 2016)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3828\/idpr.2020.14"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2109217118"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-018-0101-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/1747423X.2021.2020919"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1211658109"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1620081114"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","first-page":"624","article-title":"The Regulatory frameworks for regularized settlements in global south countries: A review","volume":"8","author":"Munuo N. A.","year":"2025","unstructured":"N. A. Munuo, J. W. Kombe, D. E. Msangi, The Regulatory frameworks for regularized settlements in global south countries: A review. Afric. J. Land Policy Geospat. Sci. 8, 624\u2013639 (2025).","journal-title":"Afric. J. Land Policy Geospat. Sci."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.landusepol.2007.08.001"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"Approaches to the regularization of informal settlements: The case of primed in medellin","volume":"3","author":"Betancur J. J.","year":"2007","unstructured":"J. J. Betancur, Approaches to the regularization of informal settlements: The case of primed in medellin. Colombia. Global Urban Dev. 3, 1\u201315 (2007).","journal-title":"Colombia. Global Urban Dev."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","unstructured":"P. Connolly \u201cLatin American informal urbanism: Contexts concepts and contributions with specific reference to Mexico.\u201d in (Re)Viewing Latin American Cities A. Becerra F. Hern\u00e1ndez Eds. (Cambridge Scholars Publishing Newcastle upon Tyne UK 2014) pp. 22\u201347."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"H. Conroy J. Ramos Piracoca A. Ramirez-Goldin L. Tang Land regularization and administration projects: A comparative evaluation (RE-470 Inter-American Development Bank Washington DC 2014). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.18235\/0010568.","DOI":"10.18235\/0010568"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","first-page":"172","article-title":"The mystery of capital. Why capitalism triumphs in the West and fails everywhere else","volume":"27","author":"De Soto H.","year":"2002","unstructured":"H. De Soto, H. P. Diaz, The mystery of capital. Why capitalism triumphs in the West and fails everywhere else. Can. J. Lat. Am. Caribb. Stud. 27, 172 (2002).","journal-title":"Can. J. Lat. 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