{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,14]],"date-time":"2026-07-14T06:35:27Z","timestamp":1784010927455,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"24","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,12]],"date-time":"2025-06-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1749686400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases","award":["Grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID"]}]},{"name":"INCEPTION","award":["PIA\/ANR-16-CONV-0005"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PIA\/ANR-16-CONV-0005"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,17]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Plague continues to pose a public health problem in multiple regions of the world, including Madagascar, where it is characterized by a pronounced seasonal pattern. The drivers of plague seasonality remain poorly understood. Using a deterministic compartmental model, calibrated to rat and flea capture data, serological data collected in active rural foci, and human plague surveillance data, we analyzed the effects of seasonal rat and flea population dynamics on plague transmission. The models that incorporated seasonal fluctuations in rat and flea populations provided better predictive performances than those that did not. We found that a simpler mass-action model also performed well. Driven by these seasonal changes, the effective reproduction number (R\n                    <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                    ) between rats peaks at 1.45 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.41, 1.48] in October and falls to 0.6 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.63) in March. We estimated that 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2%, 0.9%) of rats are infected annually, indicating that plague is not the main driver of rat population changes. Using our model, we evaluated intervention strategies and found that targeting both rats and their fleas at the start of the epidemic season (July\u2013September) was the most effective approach for reducing human plague cases. Such an approach contrasts with the reactive strategy currently employed in Madagascar. Our findings highlight the role of flea and rat populations in plague seasonality and identify strategies that could be deployed in Madagascar to better control plague epidemics.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2502161122","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,12]],"date-time":"2025-06-12T10:49:07Z","timestamp":1749725347000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Unraveling the role of rat and flea population dynamics on the seasonality of plague epidemics in Madagascar"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"122","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7841-7963","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fanohinjanaharinirina","family":"Rasoamalala","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]},{"name":"Doctoral School Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Antananarivo","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Beza","family":"Ramasindrazana","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]},{"name":"Doctoral School Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Antananarivo","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mamionah J.","family":"Parany","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]},{"name":"Doctoral School Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Antananarivo","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0007-3631-3964","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Soloandry","family":"Rahajandraibe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department for the Control of Transmissible Diseases, Central Laboratory for Plague, Ministry of Public Health","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4776-2662","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lovasoa","family":"Randriantseheno","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]},{"name":"Doctoral School Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Antananarivo","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Soanandrasana","family":"Rahelinirina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6096-080X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Olivier","family":"Gorg\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut de Recherche Biom\u00e9dicale des Arm\u00e9es","place":["Br\u00e9tigny-sur-Orge, France"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Valade","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institut de Recherche Biom\u00e9dicale des Arm\u00e9es","place":["Br\u00e9tigny-sur-Orge, France"]},{"name":"Ecole du Val-de-Gr\u00e2ce","place":["Paris, France"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mireille","family":"Harimalala","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Medical Entomology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Minoarisoa","family":"Rajerison","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar","place":["Antananarivo, Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9186-4549","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Simon","family":"Cauchemez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Global Health Department, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, INSERM U1332, CNRS UMR2000","place":["Paris 75015, France"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Antoine","family":"Brault","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Global Health Department, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9, INSERM U1332, CNRS UMR2000","place":["Paris 75015, France"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","first-page":"289","article-title":"Plague around the world in 2019 \u2013 La peste dans le monde en 2019","volume":"94","author":"Bertherat E.","year":"2019","unstructured":"E. 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