{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,10]],"date-time":"2026-06-10T15:36:29Z","timestamp":1781105789482,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":23,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"23","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]],"date-time":"2025-06-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1749168000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"HHS | National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1R01GM144964-01"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1R01GM144964-01"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"University of Washtington","award":["Population Health Initiative Tier 3 Grant"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Population Health Initiative Tier 3 Grant"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,10]]},"abstract":"\n Scientific inquiry about the transmissibility of infectious diseases is largely based on the basic reproduction number (\n \n \n \n R<\/mml:mi>\n 0<\/mml:mn>\n <\/mml:msub>\n <\/mml:math>\n <\/jats:inline-formula>\n ) and its derivations. This paper describes a mechanism overlooked in most conventional analyses, in which a disease can endogenously \u201ccompete\u201d with itself when multiple infectious individuals race to infect the same susceptible individual, thereby reducing the effective reproductive rate. Utilizing an empirically calibrated network epidemiological model of wild-type COVID-19 diffusion in its early pandemic, we show that the mechanism would be expected to reduce its reproductive rate by an average of 39%. Simulation experiments further identify different types of endogenous competition mechanisms and their relative effect sizes. We highlight the incorporation of endogenous competition mechanism as a necessary step in realistically modeling the reproduction process of infectious diseases.\n <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2502676122","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]],"date-time":"2025-06-06T13:39:16Z","timestamp":1749217156000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Endogenous competition and the underrealized reproduction of infectious diseases"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"122","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5614-786X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peng","family":"Huang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology","place":["Athens"]},{"name":"University of Georgia","place":["Athens"]},{"name":"Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, Odom School of Ecology","place":["Athens"]},{"name":"University of Georgia","place":["Athens"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1967-123X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zack W.","family":"Almquist","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology","place":["Seattle"]},{"name":"University of Washington","place":["Seattle"]},{"name":"Department of Statistics","place":["Seattle"]},{"name":"University of Washington","place":["Seattle"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7911-9834","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Carter T.","family":"Butts","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"Department of Statistics","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"Department of Computer Science","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science","place":["Irvine"]},{"name":"University of California","place":["Irvine"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","unstructured":"CDC Behind the model: CDC.s tools to assess epidemic growth. https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/cfa-behind-the-model\/php\/data-research\/rt-estimates\/index.html. 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Huang Z. W. Almquist C. T. Butts Replication data for: Endogenous competition and the under-realized reproduction of infectious diseases. Harvard Dataverse. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7910\/DVN\/PCBWO2. Deposited 9 May 2025."}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.2502676122","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]],"date-time":"2025-06-06T13:39:27Z","timestamp":1749217167000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2502676122"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]]},"references-count":23,"journal-issue":{"issue":"23","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,10]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.2502676122"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2502676122","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,6,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-02-04","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-04-29","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2025-06-06","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2502676122"}}