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Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The epidemiological dynamics of\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">Mycoplasma pneumoniae<\/jats:italic>\n                    is characterized by poorly understood complex multiannual cycles. The origins of these cycles have long been debated, and multiple explanations of varying complexity have been suggested. Using Bayesian methods, we fit a dynamical model to half a century of\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">M. pneumoniae<\/jats:italic>\n                    surveillance data from Denmark (1958 to 1995, 2010 to 2025) and uncover a parsimonious explanation for the persistent cycles, based on the theory of quasicycles. The period of the multiannual cycle (approx. 5 y in Denmark) is explained by susceptible replenishment due, primarily, to loss of immunity. While an excellent fit to shorter time series (a few decades), the deterministic model eventually settles into an annual cycle, unable to reproduce the persistent cycles. We find that environmental stochasticity (e.g., varying contact rates) stabilizes the multiannual cycles and so does demographic noise, at least in smaller or incompletely mixing populations. The temporary disappearance of cycles during 1979 to 1985 is explained as a consequence of stochastic mode-hopping. The circulation of\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">M. pneumoniae<\/jats:italic>\n                    was recently disrupted by COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), providing a natural experiment on the effects of large perturbations. Consequently, the effects of NPIs are included in the model and medium-term predictions are explored. Our findings highlight the intrinsic sensitivity of\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">M. pneumoniae<\/jats:italic>\n                    dynamics to perturbations and interventions, underscoring the limitations for long-term prediction. More generally, our findings provide further evidence for the role of stochasticity as a driver of complex cycles across endemic and recurring pathogens.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2509184122","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,22]],"date-time":"2025-12-22T20:00:56Z","timestamp":1766433656000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Complex multiannual cycles of\n                    <i>Mycoplasma pneumoniae<\/i>\n                    : Persistence and the role of stochasticity"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"122","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3868-9187","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bjarke Frost","family":"Nielsen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"High Meadows Environmental Institute","place":["Princeton"]},{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton"]},{"name":"Niels Bohr Institute","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]},{"name":"Faculty of Science","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]},{"name":"University of Copenhagen","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]},{"name":"PandemiX Center","place":["Roskilde, Denmark"]},{"name":"Department of Science and Environment","place":["Roskilde, Denmark"]},{"name":"Roskilde University","place":["Roskilde, Denmark"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2202-3361","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sang Woo","family":"Park","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolution","place":["Chicago"]},{"name":"University of Chicago","place":["Chicago"]},{"name":"School of Biological Sciences","place":["Seoul, Korea"]},{"name":"Seoul National University","place":["Seoul, Korea"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0639-3728","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emily","family":"Howerton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology","place":["Princeton"]},{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Olivia Frost","family":"Lorentzen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Canal Pointe","place":["Princeton"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8104-4299","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mogens H.","family":"Jensen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Niels Bohr Institute","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]},{"name":"Faculty of Science","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]},{"name":"University of Copenhagen","place":["Copenhagen, Denmark"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Bryan T.","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology","place":["Princeton"]},{"name":"Princeton University","place":["Princeton"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","first-page":"157","volume-title":"Understanding Pulmonary Pathology: Applying Pathological Findings in Therapeutic Decision Making","author":"Kradin R. 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