{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,25]],"date-time":"2026-10-25T11:00:49Z","timestamp":1792926049059,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":61,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"36","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1788134400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000203","name":"DOI | U.S. Geological Survey","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Ecosystems Mission Area - Land Change Science"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Ecosystems Mission Area - Land Change Science"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000203","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100014586","name":"USDA | FS | Rocky Mountain Research Station","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NA"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NA"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100014586","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Dry forests of the western United States evolved with frequent, spatially extensive, low-severity fires, followed by a century of fire exclusion. Recently, these same forests have experienced large and increasingly severe fires causing widespread forest loss. To what extent do modern high-severity fires depart from pre-1900 fire regimes, and how do these departures affect the future persistence of dry-conifer forests? We address these questions using a multiscalar approach that combines the largest landscape-scale tree-ring fire-scar network in North America with neutral landscape model simulations in the Jemez Mountains of northern New Mexico. Fire scars recorded a continuous 400-y history (ca. 1500\u20131900 CE) of frequent, low-severity fires across individual sites, landscapes, and centuries. We evaluated whether forests exhibiting this record could plausibly persist if they had historically burned under modern patterns of high-severity fire. Across the 240,000-ha Jemez landscape, high-severity fires from 1995\u20132024 burned 32% of fire-scar sites and 25% of dry-conifer forests. Within the Las Conchas Fire perimeter\u2014a 61,000 ha area reburned by multiple fires\u201466% of fire-scar sites and 71% of forests were burned at high severity, erasing multiple centuries of forest and fire history. Simulations indicate that the probability of the observed fire-scar network persisting under modern high-severity fire rates is near-zero (\n                    <jats:italic toggle=\"yes\">P<\/jats:italic>\n                    &lt; 0.001). Projecting these dynamics forward indicates rapid loss of both dry-conifer forests and tree-ring fire histories\u201450% of modern dry-conifer forest will remain by 2055, and 24% by 2115. Modern high-severity fire regimes appear incompatible with dry-conifer forest persistence.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2513731123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T19:03:24Z","timestamp":1788203004000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Recent high-severity wildfires in a dry-conifer landscape are unprecedented over five centuries and foretell future forest loss"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0701-2843","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andreas P.","family":"Wion","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00zf0nh29","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station","place":["Santa Fe"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2234-1960","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jens T.","family":"Stevens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00cvxb145","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington","place":["Seattle"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3930-340X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonathan D.","family":"Coop","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02xs3dj23","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Clark School of Environment and Sustainability, Western Colorado University","place":["Gunnison"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9748-4432","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Calvin A.","family":"Farris","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/044zqqy65","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"National Park Service, Division of Fire and Aviation Management, Pacific Southwest Region","place":["Klamath Falls"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2982-5255","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sean A.","family":"Parks","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ariel Re UK Limited","place":["London, United Kingdom"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/0078xmk34","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana","place":["Missoula"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8777-5989","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Craig D.","family":"Allen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/05fs6jp91","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of New Mexico","place":["Albuquerque"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0595-9005","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ellis Q.","family":"Margolis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00zf0nh29","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"U.S. Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, New Mexico Landscapes Field Station","place":["Santa Fe"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ecs2.4159"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/eap.2431"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","first-page":"39","article-title":"Southwestern ponderosa forest structure: Changes since Euro-American settlement","volume":"92","author":"Covington W. 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