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Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,17]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Grazing systems represent the most extensive production systems in the world and are highly sensitive to climate change. However, their global-scale sensitivity and vulnerability to climate impacts remain poorly understood. Here, we apply the safe climatic space framework to assess how changes in core climatic drivers of grazing suitability, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind speed, will reshape global grassland-based grazing systems. Our analysis projects a net decline of 36 to 50% of areas in climate suitability for grazing by 2100, accompanied by inter- and intracontinental shift of grazing suitability. These changes are expected to negatively affect 110 to 140 million pastoralists and 1.4 to 1.6 billion livestock, with particularly severe impacts in Africa. We further show that 51 to 81% of these impacted populations reside in countries with low income, serious hunger, severe gender inequality, and high political fragility. Our study implies that future climate change will threaten grazing suitability across large portions of Earth, endangering the livelihoods of numerous communities and potentially triggering widespread socioeconomic consequences.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2534015123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,9]],"date-time":"2026-02-09T20:01:13Z","timestamp":1770667273000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3951-7141","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Chaohui","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]},{"name":"Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, School of Engineering, Peking University","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maximilian","family":"Kotz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]},{"name":"Climate Change and Variability Group, Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre","place":["Barcelona, Spain"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0491-5489","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Prajal","family":"Pradhan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]},{"name":"Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen","place":["Groningen, the Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xudong","family":"Wu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]},{"name":"School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuanchao","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association","place":["Potsdam, Germany"]},{"name":"School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology","place":["Guangzhou, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Zhi","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, School of Engineering, Peking University","place":["Beijing, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1173-6796","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Guoqian","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, School of Engineering, Peking University","place":["Beijing, China"]},{"name":"Macao Environmental Research Institute, Macau University of Science and Technology","place":["Macao, China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1910114117"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-023-01132-6"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-024-02129-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41893-023-01187-5"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.abq4062"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature25138"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-018-19785-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17474230701622981"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.energy.29.062403.102142"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/2016GB005601"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2527\/jas.2009-2586"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S175173111000090X"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","first-page":"28","article-title":"Analysis of livestock climate resources in Daxinganling area","author":"Li S.","year":"2002","unstructured":"S. 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