{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T19:35:54Z","timestamp":1786995354900,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"34","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1786924800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100017642","name":"MEC | Spanish National Plan for Scientific and Technical Research and Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["PID2022-137414OB-I00"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["PID2022-137414OB-I00"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100017642","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100011033","name":"MEC | Agencia Estatal de Investigaci\u00f3n","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["CEX2020001084M"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["CEX2020001084M"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100011033","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003741","name":"Instituci\u00f3 Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avan\u00e7ats","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["2024ICREA00151"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2024ICREA00151"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003741","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    The 1820 plague outbreak in eastern Mallorca\u2014long treated as a local episode and traditionally classified as a late bubonic manifestation of the Second Plague Pandemic\u2014offers a unique opportunity to reassess transmission dynamics in a prebacteriological context. Using a previously unexamined primary source consisting of daily counts of deaths, we combine historical analysis with a Bayesian epidemiological model to estimate the basic reproduction number (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:msub>\n                          <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                          <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:msub>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ), the mean infectious period, and the case-fatality ratio in the towns of Son Servera and Capdepera (Mallorca, Spain). Our results show stark contrasts between the two towns: Son Servera exhibited a higher transmission potential (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                          <mml:mo>\u2248<\/mml:mo>\n                          <mml:mn>1.3<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ) and longer infectious period (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mo>\u2248<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    2.8 d) than Capdepera (\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mrow>\n                          <mml:msub>\n                            <mml:mi>R<\/mml:mi>\n                            <mml:mn>0<\/mml:mn>\n                          <\/mml:msub>\n                          <mml:mo>\u2248<\/mml:mo>\n                          <mml:mn>1.0<\/mml:mn>\n                        <\/mml:mrow>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    ;\n                    <jats:inline-formula>\n                      <mml:math xmlns:mml=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"inline\" overflow=\"scroll\">\n                        <mml:mo>\u2248<\/mml:mo>\n                      <\/mml:math>\n                    <\/jats:inline-formula>\n                    2.0 d). The overall case-fatality rate of 78%\u2014together with short infectious periods and historical descriptions of rapid clinical decline\u2014strongly suggests that pneumonic and septicemic forms contributed substantially to transmission, challenging earlier interpretations centered on bubonic plague and rodent-borne spread. Historical evidence also rules out an enzootic rat reservoir, pointing instead to human ectoparasites or direct human-to-human routes as the most likely drivers. Moreover, mortality among children increased significantly during the outbreak, indicating age-differentiated vulnerability. By integrating quantitative modeling with fine-grained archival records, this study reassesses the biological nature of one of the last major plagues in 19th-century western Europe and contributes to broader debates on plague ecology, transmission mechanisms, and the dynamics of late Second Pandemic outbreaks.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2536892123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T19:03:46Z","timestamp":1786993426000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The 1820 Mallorca plague was not a classic bubonic outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6607-9642","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Pedro","family":"Puig","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/052g8jq94","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Departament de Matem\u00e0tiques, Universitat Aut\u00f2noma de Barcelona","place":["Cerdanyola del Vall\u00e9s, Spain"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/020s51w82","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Centre de Recerca Matem\u00e0tica","place":["Cerdanyola del Vall\u00e9s, Spain"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4975-639X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joana Maria","family":"Pujadas-Mora","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01f5wp925","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Departament d\u2019Arts i Humanitats, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya","place":["Barcelona, Spain"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/02dm87055","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Historical Demography Unit, Centre d\u2019Estudis Demogr\u00e0fics","place":["Cerdanyola del Vall\u00e9s, Spain"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1600-0498.12302"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","first-page":"e42284","article-title":"The plague in Crete during the 19th century","volume":"15","author":"Stefanogiannis I.","year":"2023","unstructured":"I. 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Mart\u00ed Amengual \u201cEstudio hist\u00f3rico de la peste del levante mallorqu\u00edn de 1820\u201d in Actes del II Congr\u00e9s Internacional d\u2019hist\u00f2ria de la Medicina Catalana (C\u00e1tedra d\u2019Hist\u00f2ria de la Medicina de la Universitat de Barcelona Barcelona 1975) pp. 123\u2013152."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","first-page":"125","article-title":"Vers une nouvelle modernit\u00e9 sanitaire: l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de peste de majorque en 1820","volume":"134","author":"Moll I.","year":"2017","unstructured":"I. Moll, P. S. Vives, J. M. Pujadas-Mora, Vers une nouvelle modernit\u00e9 sanitaire: l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie de peste de majorque en 1820. Ann. Demogr. hist. 134, 125\u2013149 (2017).","journal-title":"Ann. Demogr. hist."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","unstructured":"P. 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