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Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,20]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Urban sustainability transformations call for fundamental shifts in how cities are organized, developed, and governed. Yet we need a better understanding of the diversity of visions and pathways that can enable transformative change. We address this gap through an analysis of 60 coproduced positive scenario visions and pathways developed using the Sustainable Future Scenario process, across nine US and Latin American cities participating in the Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network. We engaged diverse urban stakeholders\u2014including government, nonprofit, and private decision-makers, community leaders, residents, and academic collaborators\u2014in more than 20 coproduction workshops to explore alternative urban futures of sustainability and resilience. We examined how the coproduced scenarios represent five domains of transformative change (nature\u2013human relationships, economic transformation, governance, social and environmental justice, and infrastructure futures) and four theories of transformative change (structural\/institutional, agency\/power, goals of the system, and worldviews\/values). Most pathways combined multiple theories of change operating across multiple domains, revealing urban transformations as entangled rather than singular interventions. Some strategies were common across cities\u2014car-free regions, decentralized infrastructure, community-based governance, expanded fundamental rights\u2014yet were pursued with different transformative aims, demonstrating how a strategy\u2019s transformative intent depends on the theories of change behind it. These findings position coproduced scenarios as more than a normative or planning tool and offer an analytical approach for surfacing the possibility space of urban transformation.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2537819123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]],"date-time":"2026-10-16T17:39:04Z","timestamp":1792172344000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Insights from coproduced scenarios toward urban sustainability transformations"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"given":"David M.","family":"Iwaniec","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03qt6ba18","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Urban Studies Institute, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University","place":["Atlanta"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nancy B.","family":"Grimm","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/03efmqc40","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Life Sciences, Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, and Global Futures Lab, Arizona State University","place":["Tempe"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marta","family":"Berb\u00e9s Bl\u00e1zquez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01aff2v68","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"School of Environment, Resources, and Sustainability, University of Waterloo","place":["Waterloo, Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth M.","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01dhcyx48","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies","place":["Millbrook"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/04rt94r53","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Environmental Science Department, Barnard College","place":["New York"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2387-3894","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tischa A.","family":"Mu\u00f1oz-Erickson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/01na82s61","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"International Institute of Tropical Forestry, United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service","place":["R\u00edo Piedras"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"The UREx City Scenarios Team","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,16]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/fee.1309"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/2053019614564785"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s42949-021-00017-x"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41558-022-01542-y"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1059386"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","volume-title":"Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times","author":"Raskin P.","year":"2002","unstructured":"P. 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