{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,8]],"date-time":"2026-07-08T05:38:10Z","timestamp":1783489090891,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"21","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779062400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Immigrants play a critical role in the US childcare workforce, yet little is known about how immigration enforcement shapes employment in this essential sector. We study how the sharp escalation in community-based Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity following President Trump\u2019s inauguration in early 2025 affected childcare employment in the United States. Monthly data from the Current Population Survey are linked to compiled state-level ICE arrest records from September 2023 through September 2025, to ask how changes in enforcement intensity influence employment across childcare settings that differ in regulation and visibility. We find that increased ICE activity led to significant declines in employment among foreign-born women, with effects concentrated in center-based settings that are highly regulated and publicly visible. At the same time, employment in private household childcare increased, consistent with a reallocation toward less visible and less formal arrangements rather than a complete exit from the sector. These effects strengthened markedly after early 2025, a period characterized both by a sharp rise in nonprison ICE arrests and heightened public attention to immigration enforcement. Among native-born women, employment responses are limited in magnitude and confined to a limited number of specific care settings, providing little evidence of broad substitution for foreign-born workers. Overall, the results show that immigration enforcement reshapes not only the size but also the structure of the childcare workforce, with important potential implications for childcare access, labor markets, and families.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2602686123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T19:11:12Z","timestamp":1779131472000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["How rising ICE activity influences the childcare workforce"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"given":"Erkmen G.","family":"Aslim","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of Vermont","place":["Burlington"]},{"name":"IZA@LISER","place":["Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9220-9113","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Janet","family":"Currie","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, Yale University","place":["New Haven"]},{"name":"CESifo","place":["Munich, Germany"]},{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","place":["Cambridge"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Chris M.","family":"Herbst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"IZA@LISER","place":["Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg"]},{"name":"School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University","place":["Phoenix"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3666-0540","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Erdal","family":"Tekin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"IZA@LISER","place":["Esch-sur-Alzette, Luxembourg"]},{"name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","place":["Cambridge"]},{"name":"School of Public Affairs, American University","place":["Washington"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jpubeco.2024.105101"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/10659129231155136"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jue.2021.103395"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/soej.12023"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","first-page":"1","article-title":"The effects of deferred action for childhood arrivals on labor market outcomes","author":"Tran N.","year":"2023","unstructured":"N. Tran, The effects of deferred action for childhood arrivals on labor market outcomes. J. Demograp. Econ. 1\u201330 (2023).","journal-title":"J. Demograp. Econ."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/pol.6.3.313"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"C. N. East C. Patler E. Cox ICE Arrests across trump\u2019s first and second terms: Variation in targeting method and geography. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 34794 (2026).","DOI":"10.3386\/w34794"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","unstructured":"L. D. Pearson \u201cFactsheet: Trump\u2019s rescission of protected areas policies undermines safety for all\u201d (National Immigration Law Center Los Angeles CA 2025)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","unstructured":"T. Bradley M. Rodriguez B. Tumulty Absolutet error\u2019: Day care teacher detained by ICE agents on Chicago\u2019s North Side. (2025). WGN9 5 November 2025. https:\/\/wgntv.com\/news\/operation-midway-blitz\/video-daycare-teacher-detained-by-ice-agents-on-chicagos-north-side\/. Accessed 5 May 2026."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","unstructured":"C. Carrazana They are hunting us: Childcare workers in D.C. (2025). https:\/\/19thnews.org\/2025\/09\/child-care-workers-ice-dc-immigration\/. Accessed 11 October 2025."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","unstructured":"K. J. Fernelius B. G. Garcia Climate of fear. The Assembly. (2018). https:\/\/www.theassemblync.com\/politics\/criminal-justice\/henderson-county-climate-of-fear\/. Accessed 1 May 2026."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","unstructured":"R. Thebault E. Felton R. Hatzipanagos M. Alfaro Documented or not Latinos are changing habits during ICE crackdown. Washington Post 1 November 2025. https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/nation\/2025\/11\/01\/ice-latinos-race-profiling\/. Accessed 5 May 2026."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","unstructured":"S. Flood IPUMS CPS: Version 13.0 [dataset]. (2025). (IPUMS Minneapolis MN 2025). 10.18128\/D030.V13.0."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.econedurev.2025.102726"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20181169"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2510395122"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_17_2","unstructured":"A. Bick K. Bloodworth II \u201cWhat is affecting the cps data on shifts in immigrant and native-born populations?\u201d (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis On the Economy 2025). https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2025\/dec\/what-is-affecting-cps-data-shifts-immigration-native-born-populations. Accessed 5 May 2026."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_18_2","unstructured":"W. Edelberg S. Veuger T. Watson \u201cMacroeconomic implications of immigration flows in 2025 and 2026: January 2026 update\u201d (Research report Brookings Institution 2026). https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/articles\/macroeconomic-implications-of-immigration-flows-in-2025-and-2026-january-2026-update\/. Accessed 5 May 2026."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_19_2","unstructured":"E. Aslim J. Currie C. M. Herbst E. Tekin \u201cReplication Data for: How Rising ICE Activity Influences the Childcare Workforce\u201d. Harvard Dataverse. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7910\/DVN\/HIHZZI. Deposited 2 May 2026."}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.2602686123","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]],"date-time":"2026-05-18T19:12:27Z","timestamp":1779131547000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2602686123"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]]},"references-count":19,"journal-issue":{"issue":"21","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,26]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.2602686123"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2602686123","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-01-23","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-03-31","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-05-18","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2602686123"}}