{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T19:55:50Z","timestamp":1790625350522,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":41,"publisher":"National Academy of Sciences","issue":"40","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1790553600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Citizenship is widely summarized as producing a \u201cnaturalization premium\u201d for immigrants, but naturalization is selected: immigrants who naturalize differ in language, residence, employment, and motivation. We provide a quantitative meta-analysis of citizenship effects on immigrant earnings, synthesizing 60 preferred estimates from 31 studies. How a study separates the effect of citizenship from selection into citizenship\u2014its identification strategy\u2014explains more variation in estimates than destination country, citizenship regime, or any other study feature we code. Averaging published estimates with a multilevel random-effects model yields a pooled premium of 9.9% (95% CI 5.1 to 14.9), and 11.0% (95% CI 5.7 to 16.6) when pooling within study-country cells. But this average conceals sharp differences across research designs. The randomized encouragement study relying on a lottery to overcome selection implies a near-zero effect of 1.9% (95% CI \u22121.3 to 5.3); the regression-discontinuity study yields 11.3% (95% CI 5.2 to 17.8); estimates from policy reforms and within-unit panels are positive on average but too imprecise to distinguish from either zero or the pooled average; and observational instrumental-variable estimates average 53.0% (95% CI 27.6 to 83.5). Excluding observational instrumental-variable estimates reduces the pooled premium to 6.0% (95% CI 3.8 to 8.2). Reanalyzing the randomized trial data shows the same pattern: Experimental estimates are near zero, while an observational difference-in-differences comparison based on self-selected citizenship uptake implies a 9.6% gain (95% CI 4.0 to 15.5) four years post lottery, a bias standard pretrend tests do not detect. The published citizenship premium is positive, but its size and causal interpretation depend on research design.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2617804123","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T19:02:56Z","timestamp":1790622176000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The economic returns to citizenship: Evidence from a meta-analysis"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"123","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8214-9041","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jens","family":"Hainmueller","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00f54p054","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Political Science, Stanford University","place":["Stanford"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00f54p054","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University","place":["Stanford"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7911-7089","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David D.","family":"Laitin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00f54p054","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Department of Political Science, Stanford University","place":["Stanford"]},{"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/00f54p054","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"publisher"}],"name":"Immigration Policy Lab, Stanford University","place":["Stanford"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","unstructured":"National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine The Integration of Immigrants into American Society M. 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(American Enterprise Institute Washington DC 1992) pp. 229\u2013296."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/339616"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_8_2","unstructured":"M. Engdahl \u201cNaturalizations and the economic and social integration of immigrants\u201d (Working Paper 2014:11 Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy (IFAU) 2014)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1353\/dem.0.0038"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ecoj.12546"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aay1610"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/13621025.2014.905279"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2516178123"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/1369183X.2017.1367650"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10680-019-09540-1"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_16_2","unstructured":"G. Solano T. Huddleston \u201cMigrant integration policy index 2020\u201d (Tech. Rep. 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Akbari \u201cImmigrant naturalization and its impacts on immigrant labour market performance and treasury\u201d in The Economics of Citizenship P. Bevelander D. J. DeVoretz Eds. (Malm\u00f6 University MIM Malm\u00f6 2008) pp. 129\u2013154."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_22_2","unstructured":"J. E. Hayfron \u201cThe economics of Norwegian citizenship\u201d in The Economics of Citizenship P. Bevelander D. J. DeVoretz Eds. (Malm\u00f6 University MIM Malm\u00f6 2008) pp. 91\u2013104."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_23_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/01437720910948429"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_24_2","unstructured":"H. Shierholz \u201cThe effects of citizenship on family income and poverty\u201d (Briefing Paper 256 Economic Policy Institute 2010)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_25_2","unstructured":"B. Bratsberg O. Raaum \u201cThe labour market outcomes of naturalised citizens in Norway\u201d in Naturalisation: A Passport for the Better Integration of Immigrants? (OECD Publishing Paris 2011)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_26_2","unstructured":"M. Engdahl \u201cThe impact of naturalisation on labour market outcomes in Sweden\u201d in Naturalisation: A Passport for the Better Integration of Immigrants? (OECD Publishing Paris 2011)."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_27_2","first-page":"223","article-title":"The labor market performance of naturalized immigrants in Switzerland\u2013new findings from the Swiss labor force survey","volume":"13","author":"Steinhardt M. F.","year":"2012","unstructured":"M. F. Steinhardt, J. Wedemeier, The labor market performance of naturalized immigrants in Switzerland\u2013new findings from the Swiss labor force survey. J. Int. Migr. Integr. 13, 223\u2013242 (2012).","journal-title":"J. Int. Migr. 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He \u201cCitizenship and the economic assimilation of Canadian immigrants\u201d (IDB Working Paper Series IDB-WP-01127 Inter-American Development Bank 2021).","DOI":"10.18235\/0003117"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/imig.70069"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jrsm.1095"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20190687"}],"container-title":["Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/pdf\/10.1073\/pnas.2617804123","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T19:03:39Z","timestamp":1790622219000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.2617804123"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]]},"references-count":41,"journal-issue":{"issue":"40","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1073\/pnas.2617804123"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2617804123","relation":{},"ISSN":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0027-8424","type":"print"},{"value":"1091-6490","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-05-21","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-12","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-09-28","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e2617804123"}}