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Committed supporters of opposing candidates regularly differed by 20\u201330% in their assessments of the likelihood that each candidate would win. These findings contribute evidence on the false consensus effect, the empirical regularity that own preferences tend to be positively associated with perceptions of social preferences. We used unique measures of preferences and perceptions that enabled respondents to express uncertainty flexibly. We studied a setting that would a priori seem inhospitable to false consensus\u2014one where persons have little private information on social preferences but substantial common knowledge provided by media reports of election polls.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1200861109","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,22]],"date-time":"2012-02-22T03:21:16Z","timestamp":1329880876000},"page":"3711-3715","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":29,"title":["Candidate preferences and expectations of election outcomes"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"109","author":[{"given":"Adeline","family":"Delavande","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, United Kingdom;"},{"name":"RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA 90401; and"}]},{"given":"Charles F.","family":"Manski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2012,2,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"468","DOI":"10.1177\/0146167295215005","article-title":"Attitude importance and the false consensus effect","volume":"21","author":"Fabrigar L","year":"1995","unstructured":"L Fabrigar, J Krosnick, Attitude importance and the false consensus effect. 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