{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T03:28:56Z","timestamp":1775014136230,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":59,"publisher":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,27]],"date-time":"2020-07-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1595808000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":182,"URL":"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/site\/aboutpnas\/licenses.xhtml"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.pnas.org"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,2,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Agrobiodiversity\u2014the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices\u2014is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood<jats:italic>et al.<\/jats:italic>,<jats:italic>Trends Ecol. Evol.<\/jats:italic>30, 531\u2013539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar<jats:italic>et al.<\/jats:italic>,<jats:italic>Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.<\/jats:italic>123, 261\u2013270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly<jats:italic>Vitis vinifera<\/jats:italic>subspecies<jats:italic>vinifera<\/jats:italic>). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation\u2014phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 \u00b0C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 \u00b0C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change\u2014including in major winegrowing regions\u2014as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1906731117","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,28]],"date-time":"2020-01-28T01:24:42Z","timestamp":1580174682000},"page":"2864-2869","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.cm10313","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":182,"title":["Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses"],"prefix":"10.1073","volume":"117","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8570-9312","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ignacio","family":"Morales-Castilla","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Global Change Ecology and Evolution (GloCEE) Group, Department of Life Sciences, University of Alcal\u00e1, Alcal\u00e1 de Henares 28805, Spain;"},{"name":"The Arnold Arboretum, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02131;"},{"name":"Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6941-9844","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"I\u00f1aki","family":"Garc\u00eda de Cort\u00e1zar-Atauri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unit\u00e9 de Service 1116 AgroClim, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, F-84914 Avignon, France;"}]},{"given":"Benjamin I.","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025;"},{"name":"Division of Ocean and Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964;"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9968-8228","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thierry","family":"Lacombe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Am\u00e9lioration G\u00e9n\u00e9tique et Adaptation des Plantes (AGAP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Montpellier SupAgro, Universit\u00e9 Montpellier, F-34060 Montpellier, France;"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3601-0951","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amber","family":"Parker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Wine, Food, and Molecular Biosciences, Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Lincoln University, Lincoln 7647, Christchurch, New Zealand;"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9428-0167","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cornelis","family":"van Leeuwen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ecophysiologie et G\u00e9nomique Fonctionnelle de la Vigne (EGFV), Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Institut National de Recherche pour l\u2019Agriculture, l\u2019Alimentation et l\u2019Environnement (INRAE), Universit\u00e9 Bordeaux, Institut des Sciences de la Vigne et du Vin (ISVV), 33882 Villenave d\u2019Ornon, France;"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4756-7851","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kimberly A.","family":"Nicholas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund University, SE-221 00, Lund, Sweden;"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth M.","family":"Wolkovich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Arnold Arboretum, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02131;"},{"name":"Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138;"},{"name":"Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada"}]}],"member":"341","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,1,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_4_1_2","first-page":"182","volume-title":"The contribution of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture to food security and sustainable agricultural development\u201d","author":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","year":"2010","unstructured":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, \u201cThe contribution of plant genetic resources for food and agriculture to food security and sustainable agricultural development\u201d in The Second Report on the State of the World\u2019s Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy 2010), pp. 182\u2013201; http:\/\/www.fao.org\/docrep\/013\/i1500e\/i1500e08.pdf."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tree.2015.06.013","article-title":"Functional traits in agriculture: Agrobiodiversity and ecosystem services","volume":"30","author":"Wood S. A.","year":"2015","unstructured":"S. A. Wood , Functional traits in agriculture: Agrobiodiversity and ecosystem services. Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531\u2013539 (2015).","journal-title":"Trends Ecol. Evol."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"261","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2007.08.003","article-title":"The utility of crop genetic diversity in maintaining ecosystem services","volume":"123","author":"Hajjar R.","year":"2008","unstructured":"R. Hajjar, D. I. Jarvis, B. Gemmill-Herren, The utility of crop genetic diversity in maintaining ecosystem services. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261\u2013270 (2008).","journal-title":"Agric. Ecosyst. Environ."},{"key":"e_1_3_4_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"812","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1185383","article-title":"Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people","volume":"327","author":"Godfray H. C. J.","year":"2010","unstructured":"H. C. J. Godfray , Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327, 812\u2013818 (2010).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1152339","article-title":"Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030","volume":"319","author":"Lobell D. B.","year":"2008","unstructured":"D. B. Lobell , Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319, 607\u2013610 (2008).","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"e_1_3_4_6_2","first-page":"485","volume-title":"Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"Porter J. R.","year":"2014","unstructured":"J. R. Porter , \u201cFood security and food production systems\u201d in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. 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