{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T16:23:27Z","timestamp":1790958207176,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":69,"publisher":"Informa UK Limited","issue":"536","funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["1559172"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["1559172"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["www.tandfonline.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of the American Statistical Association"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,2]]},"DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1920957","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,4,23]],"date-time":"2021-04-23T10:14:21Z","timestamp":1619172861000},"page":"1849-1864","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/tandf_crossmark_01","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":140,"title":["An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls"],"prefix":"10.1080","volume":"116","author":[{"given":"Victor","family":"Chernozhukov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kaspar","family":"W\u00fcthrich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yinchu","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Economics, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"301","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,1]]},"reference":[{"key":"CIT0001","author":"Abadie A.","year":"2020","journal-title":"Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming"},{"key":"CIT0002","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jasa.2009.ap08746"},{"key":"CIT0003","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ajps.12116"},{"key":"CIT0004","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/000282803321455188"},{"key":"CIT0005","first-page":"802","volume":"19","author":"Amjad M.","year":"2018","journal-title":"The Journal of Machine Learning Research"},{"key":"CIT0006","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00466"},{"key":"CIT0007","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-7152(01)00009-8"},{"key":"CIT0008","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Arkhangelsky, D., Athey, S., Hirshberg, D. A., Imbens, G. W., and Wager, S. (2018), \u201cSynthetic Difference in Differences,\u201d arXiv:1812.09970.","DOI":"10.3386\/w25532"},{"key":"CIT0009","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w25132"},{"key":"CIT0010","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00392"},{"key":"CIT0011","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA6135"},{"key":"CIT0012","unstructured":"Ben-Michael, E., Feller, A., and Rothstein, J. (2018), \u201cThe Augmented Synthetic Control Method,\u201d arXiv:1811.04170."},{"key":"CIT0013","volume-title":"Time Series: Theory and Methods","author":"Brockwell P. J.","year":"2013"},{"key":"CIT0014","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TIT.2011.2111771"},{"key":"CIT0015","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10208-009-9045-5"},{"key":"CIT0016","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466602181023"},{"key":"CIT0017","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2018.07.005"},{"key":"CIT0018","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Cattaneo, M. D., Feng, Y., and Titiunik, R. (2021), \u201cPrediction Intervals for Synthetic Control Methods,\u201d arXiv:1912.07120.","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1979561"},{"key":"CIT0019","unstructured":"Chan, M., and Kwok, S. (2016), \u201cPolicy Evaluation With Interactive Fixed Effects,\u201d The University of Sidney, Economics Working Paper Series, 2016\u201311."},{"key":"CIT0020","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/14-AOS1272"},{"key":"CIT0021","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"674","DOI":"10.1109\/72.935081","volume":"12","author":"Chen X.","year":"2001","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks"},{"key":"CIT0022","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/18.749011"},{"key":"CIT0023","first-page":"39","volume":"45","author":"Chernozhukov V.","year":"2017","journal-title":"The Annals of Statistics"},{"key":"CIT0024","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1920\/wp.cem.2018.1618"},{"key":"CIT0025","unstructured":"Chernozhukov, V., Wuthrich, K., and Zhu, Y. (2019), \u201cPractical and Robust t-test Based Inference for Synthetic Control and Related Methods,\u201d arXiv:1812.10820."},{"key":"CIT0026","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00049"},{"key":"CIT0027","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/restud\/rdx065"},{"key":"CIT0028","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3386\/w22791"},{"key":"CIT0029","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"199","DOI":"10.2307\/2527098","volume":"35","author":"Dufour J.-M.","year":"1994","journal-title":"International Economic Review"},{"key":"CIT0030","unstructured":"Ferman, B. (2019), \u201cOn the Properties of the Synthetic Control Estimator With Many Periods and Many Controls,\u201d arXiv:1906.06665."},{"key":"CIT0031","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/rest_a_00759"},{"key":"CIT0032","unstructured":"Ferman, B., and Pinto, C. (2019b), \u201cSynthetic Controls With Imperfect Pre-treatment Fit,\u201d arXiv:1911.08521."},{"key":"CIT0033","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/jci-2016-0026"},{"key":"CIT0034","volume-title":"The Design of Experiments","author":"Fisher R.","year":"1935"},{"key":"CIT0035","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00537"},{"key":"CIT0036","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/econometrics5040052"},{"key":"CIT0037","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1515\/9780691218632"},{"key":"CIT0038","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466618000245"},{"key":"CIT0039","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.1230"},{"key":"CIT0040","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/11-AOS894"},{"key":"CIT0041","volume-title":"Testing Statistical Hypotheses","author":"Lehmann E. L.","year":"2005"},{"key":"CIT0042","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2017.1307116"},{"key":"CIT0043","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2012.751873"},{"key":"CIT0044","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"71","DOI":"10.1111\/rssb.12021","volume":"76","author":"Lei J.","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B"},{"key":"CIT0045","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3112775"},{"key":"CIT0046","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2019.1686986"},{"key":"CIT0047","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2016.01.011"},{"key":"CIT0048","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/10-AOS850"},{"key":"CIT0049","first-page":"463","volume":"5","author":"Neyman J.","year":"1923","journal-title":"Statistical Science, Reprint"},{"key":"CIT0050","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x"},{"key":"CIT0051","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-21347-7"},{"key":"CIT0052","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Com- puting","author":"Core Team R","year":"2020"},{"key":"CIT0053","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1109\/TIT.2011.2165799"},{"key":"CIT0054","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/070697835"},{"key":"CIT0055","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/10-AOS860"},{"key":"CIT0056","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1990.10474928"},{"key":"CIT0057","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037350"},{"key":"CIT0058","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176346785"},{"key":"CIT0059","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Shaikh, A. M., and Toulis, P. (2019), \u201cRandomization Tests in Observational Studies With Staggered Adoption of Treatment,\u201d arXiv:1912.10610.","DOI":"10.2139\/ssrn.3509581"},{"key":"CIT0060","first-page":"415","volume-title":"of Handbook of Macroeconomics","volume":"2","author":"Stock J.","year":"2016"},{"key":"CIT0061","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x"},{"key":"CIT0062","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1137\/1.9780898719574"},{"key":"CIT0063","unstructured":"Valero, R. (2015), \u201cSynthetic Control Method Versus Standard Statistic Techniques: A Comparison for Labor Market Reforms,\u201d Working Paper."},{"key":"CIT0064","volume-title":"Algorithmic Learning in a Random World","author":"Vovk V.","year":"2005"},{"key":"CIT0065","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/08-AOS622"},{"key":"CIT0066","volume-title":"Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis","author":"White H.","year":"1996"},{"key":"CIT0067","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/pan.2016.2"},{"key":"CIT0068","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00362-013-0503-4"},{"key":"CIT0069","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9868.2005.00503.x"}],"container-title":["Journal of the American Statistical Association"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1080\/01621459.2021.1920957","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,17]],"date-time":"2021-12-17T03:56:46Z","timestamp":1639713406000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/01621459.2021.1920957"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,1]]},"references-count":69,"journal-issue":{"issue":"536","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,10,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1080\/01621459.2021.1920957"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/01621459.2021.1920957","relation":{},"ISSN":["0162-1459","1537-274X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0162-1459","type":"print"},{"value":"1537-274X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,6,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"The publishing and review policy for this title is described in its Aims & Scope.","order":1,"name":"peerreview_statement","label":"Peer Review Statement"},{"value":"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/action\/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=uasa20","URL":"http:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/action\/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=uasa20","order":2,"name":"aims_and_scope_url","label":"Aim & Scope"},{"value":"2019-11-21","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-04-06","order":1,"name":"revised","label":"Revised","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-04-16","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-06-01","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}