{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,19]],"date-time":"2026-10-19T03:25:37Z","timestamp":1792380337051,"version":"4.4.0"},"reference-count":73,"publisher":"IOP Publishing","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,7]],"date-time":"2019-06-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1559865600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":6,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,7]],"date-time":"2019-06-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1559865600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":6,"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/info\/page\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["iopscience.iop.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Environ. Res. Lett."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO<jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961\u20131990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1\u20132 categories from \u2018low\u2019 to \u2018relatively high\u2019 which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,6]],"date-time":"2019-06-06T15:15:14Z","timestamp":1559834114000},"page":"065004","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":19,"title":["Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and \u2018attractiveness\u2019 across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century"],"prefix":"10.1088","volume":"14","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3221-1457","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Elena","family":"Parfenova","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4208-6792","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nadezhda","family":"Tchebakova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amber","family":"Soja","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"266","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"erlab10a8bib2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/2\/4\/045016","article-title":"Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission","volume":"2","author":"Anisimov","year":"2007","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.13140\/RG.2.2.27434.41920","article-title":"Socio-economical impacts of thawing permafrost in Russia","author":"Anisimov","year":"2017"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib4","first-page":"3","article-title":"Russian permafrost in the 21st century: model-based projections and analysis of uncertainties","volume":"21","author":"Anisimov","year":"2017","journal-title":"Earth\u2019s Cryosphere"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005315409698","article-title":"Permafrost zonation and climate change in the northern hemisphere: results from transient general circulation models","volume":"2","author":"Anisimov","year":"1997","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"872","DOI":"10.1017\/S0037677900024566","article-title":"Nurture is nature: lev gumilev and the ecology of ethnicity","volume":"68","author":"Bassin","year":"2009","journal-title":"Slavic Rev."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/9\/6\/065004","article-title":"Reconstruction of the lat\u0435 Holocene climate in the Minusink Hollow, south-central Siberia, and its potential influence on settled farming versus nomadic cattle herding","volume":"9","author":"Blyakharchuk","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib8","first-page":"508","author":"Budyko","year":"1974"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"342","DOI":"10.5962\/bhl.title.28570","author":"Clements","year":"1907"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib10","article-title":"Short scientific review of professor Dockuchaev's and his pupil\u2019s collection of soils, exposed in Chicago in the year 1893","author":"Dokouchaev","year":"1893"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib11a","first-page":"pp 404","author":"Dostovalov","year":"1967","journal-title":"Basic Permafrost Science"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"61","DOI":"10.1023\/A:1005347721963","article-title":"The effects of climate on welfare and well-being in Russia","volume":"39","author":"Frijters","year":"1998","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"66","DOI":"10.2307\/1929241","article-title":"Species and area","volume":"6","author":"Gleason","year":"1925","journal-title":"Ecology"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib13","first-page":"5","article-title":"Climate in Russia in the 21st century: II. Evaluation of validity of CMIP3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models for projecting climate change over Russia","volume":"8","author":"Govorkova","year":"2008","journal-title":"Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib14","article-title":"About periodical low of geographical zones","volume":"110","author":"Grigoriev","year":"1956","journal-title":"Doklady AN SSSR"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1186\/s40645-017-0154-5","article-title":"Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century","volume":"4","author":"Groisman","year":"2017","journal-title":"Prog. Earth Planet. Sci."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib15a","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/aae43c","article-title":"Dryland belt of Northern Eurasia: contemporary environmental changes and their consequences","volume":"13","author":"Groisman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib16","first-page":"496","author":"Gumilev","year":"1989"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"155","DOI":"10.1080\/10889388.1999.10641111","article-title":"Out-Migration and depopulation of the Russian North during the 1990s","volume":"40","author":"Heleniak","year":"1999","journal-title":"Post-Soviet Geogr. Econom."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1515\/9781685856694-010","article-title":"Population, health, and migration","author":"Heleniak","year":"2008"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1155\/2012\/361497","article-title":"International comparisons of population mobility in Russia","volume":"2012","author":"Heleniak","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int. J. Population Res."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib20","first-page":"240","author":"Hill","year":"2003"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"5147","DOI":"10.1038\/s41467-018-07557-4","article-title":"Degrading permafrost puts arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century","volume":"9","author":"Hjort","year":"2018","journal-title":"Nat. Commun."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"367","DOI":"10.1126\/science.105.2727.367","article-title":"Determination of world plant formations from simple climatic data","volume":"105","author":"Holdridge","year":"1947","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib24","first-page":"582","author":"Field","year":"2013"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib25","first-page":"192","author":"Isachenko","year":"2003"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib26","first-page":"401","article-title":"Annual evaporation of the globe bulletin","volume":"3","author":"Ivanov","year":"1941","journal-title":"AN SSSR"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib28","first-page":"854","article-title":"Power engineering and the climate on the eve of the new century: forecasts and reality","volume":"48","author":"Klimenko","year":"2001","journal-title":"Therm. Eng."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"807","DOI":"10.1134\/S0040601512110080","article-title":"Changing pattern and amount of the residential and commercial energy consumption in response to economic and climatic factors","volume":"59","author":"Klimenko","year":"2012","journal-title":"Therm. Eng."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib29","author":"Kotlyakov","year":"2002"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-232X(01)00018-0","article-title":"Numerical simulation of permafrost parameters distribution in Russia","volume":"32","author":"Malevsky-Malevich","year":"2001","journal-title":"Cold Reg. Sci. Technol."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"22","DOI":"10.1134\/S1875372818010031","article-title":"Forecast of demographic processes in Russia and in countries of Central and Eastern Asia in the 21st century","volume":"1","author":"Manakov","year":"2018","journal-title":"Geogr. Nat. Res."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/9\/5\/055007","article-title":"Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia","volume":"9","author":"Miao","year":"2014","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib34","author":"Mikhailova","year":"2009"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib33","first-page":"96","article-title":"Essays on Russian economic geography: measuring spatial inefficiency","author":"Mikhailova","year":"2004"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib35","first-page":"97","article-title":"Geography is not fate","volume":"3","author":"Mikhailova","year":"2011","journal-title":"J. Inst. Stud."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"375","DOI":"10.5194\/esd-6-375-2015","article-title":"Migration and global environmental change: methodological lessons from mountain areas of the global South","volume":"6","author":"Milan","year":"2015","journal-title":"Earth Syst. Dyn."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"131","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00114713","article-title":"Paradigm change and vegetation classification in Soviet phytocoenology","volume":"68","author":"Mirkin","year":"1987","journal-title":"Vegetatio"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"275","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-3800(92)90003-W","article-title":"Comparing global vegetation maps with the Kappa statistic","volume":"62","author":"Monserud","year":"1992","journal-title":"Ecol. Modelling"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib40","author":"Nazarevskii","year":"1985"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"550","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-8306.1986.tb00136.x","article-title":"Permafrost distribution in central Canada: applications of a climate-based predictive model","volume":"76","author":"Nelson","year":"1986","journal-title":"Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib41a","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","author":"Odum","year":"1954","DOI":"10.1002\/sce.3730380426"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib41b","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1016\/S0167-8116(00)00006-9","article-title":"Homeostasis and consumer behavior across cultures","volume":"17","author":"Parker","year":"2000","journal-title":"Int. J. Res. Marketing"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib41c","author":"Parshev","year":"2006","journal-title":"Why Russia is not America"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib41","first-page":"5","article-title":"Human migration and climate change","volume":"2","author":"Piguet","year":"2013","journal-title":"Geogr. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib43","first-page":"320","author":"Prokhorov","year":"2010"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib42"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib45","first-page":"147","article-title":"Terrestriasl permafrost","volume":"98","author":"Romanovsky","year":"2017","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib44","author":"","year":"2017"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1111\/gere.12214","article-title":"Climate change and stability of urban infrastructure in Russian permafrost regions: prognostic assessment based on GCM climate projections","volume":"107","author":"Shiklomanov","year":"2017","journal-title":"Geogr. Rev."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib46a","first-page":"344","author":"Sinitsyna","year":"1973","journal-title":"Agroclimatology"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"274","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gloplacha.2006.07.028","article-title":"Climate-induced boreal forest change: predictions versus current observations","volume":"56","author":"Soja","year":"2007","journal-title":"Glob. Planet. Change"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib48a","author":"Sukachev","year":"1964","journal-title":"Fundamentals of Forest Biogeocoenology"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"130","DOI":"10.2307\/2256503","article-title":"The early history of modern plant ecology in Britain","volume":"35","author":"Tansley","year":"1947","journal-title":"J. Ecol."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01094084","article-title":"A global vegetation model based on the climatological approach of Budyko","volume":"25","author":"Tchebakova","year":"1993","journal-title":"J. Biogeogr."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib55","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-319-24409-9_10","article-title":"Significant Siberian vegetation change is inevitably brought on by the changing climate","author":"Tchebakova","year":"2016"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/4\/4\/045013","article-title":"The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate","volume":"4","author":"Tchebakova","year":"2009","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/6\/4\/045207","article-title":"Agroclimatic potential across central Siberia in an altered twenty-first century","volume":"6","author":"Tchebakova","year":"2011","journal-title":"Environ. Res. Lett."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"67","DOI":"10.1007\/978-90-481-8641-9_5","article-title":"Potential climate-induced vegetation change in siberia in the twenty-first","volume":"vol 40","author":"Tchebakova","year":"2010a"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib54","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10113-011-0210-4","article-title":"Climate change and climate-induced hot spots in forest shifts in central Siberia at the turn of the 21st century","author":"Tchebakova","year":"2011","journal-title":"Reg. Environ. Res."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4020-9693-8_22","article-title":"From vegetation zones to climatypes: effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems","author":"Tchebakova","year":"2010b"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib56","first-page":"229","author":"UNDP Human Development Report","year":"2009"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib58a","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"53","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1751-9004.2007.00003.x","article-title":"Climates create cultures","volume":"1","author":"Van de Vliert","year":"2007","journal-title":"Social and Personality Psychology Compass"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib58","first-page":"333","article-title":"Possible changes in the natural conditions of human life in Russia in the middle of the 21st century","volume":"XXIY","author":"Vinogradova","year":"2011","journal-title":"Problems Ecol. Monit. Ecosyst. Model."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib59","first-page":"16","article-title":"Contemporary and future change of climate factor role in natural conditions evaluation of human life of Russia","volume":"4","author":"Vinogradova","year":"2014","journal-title":"Bull. RAS Geogr. Ser."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib57","first-page":"106","article-title":"Zoning of Russia by natural climatic conditions","volume":"5","author":"Vinogradova","year":"2008","journal-title":"Bull. RAS Geogr. Ser."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib60","article-title":"Replacement migration: is it a solution for Russia\u00a0","author":"Vishnevsky","year":"2000"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib61","first-page":"162","author":"Whittaker","year":"1972"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib62a","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"267","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2012.10.003","article-title":"New developments and applications in the ANUCLIM spatial climatic and bioclimatic modelling package","volume":"40","author":"Xu","year":"2013","journal-title":"Environ. Modelling Software"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib62","first-page":"69","article-title":"Climate conditions severity over Russia","volume":"3","author":"Zabolotnik","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geogr. Nat. Resour."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib63","first-page":"16","article-title":"Zoning of Russia by extremity level of natural living conditions","volume":"6","author":"Zolotokrylin","year":"1992","journal-title":"Bull. RAS Geogr. Ser."},{"key":"erlab10a8bib64","author":"Zolotokrylin","year":"2012","journal-title":"Zoning by Natural Living Conditions in Russia"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib65","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"243","DOI":"10.15356\/2076-6734-2018-2-243-254","article-title":"Climate change and the human life conditions in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation","volume":"58","author":"Zolotokrylin","year":"2018a","journal-title":"Ice Snow"},{"key":"erlab10a8bib66","first-page":"79","article-title":"Impact of climate warming on the conditions of human life in Russia","volume":"150","author":"Zolotokrylin","year":"2018b","journal-title":"Bull. Russ. Geogr. Soc."}],"container-title":["Environmental Research Letters"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,19]],"date-time":"2022-09-19T18:25:43Z","timestamp":1663611943000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,1]]},"references-count":73,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,7]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ab10a8","relation":{},"ISSN":["1748-9326"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1748-9326","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,6,1]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and \u2018attractiveness\u2019 across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century","name":"article_title","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Environmental Research Letters","name":"journal_title","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"paper","name":"article_type","label":"Article Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd","name":"copyright_information","label":"Copyright Information"},{"value":"2018-10-26","name":"date_received","label":"Date Received","group":{"name":"publication_dates","label":"Publication dates"}},{"value":"2019-03-18","name":"date_accepted","label":"Date Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_dates","label":"Publication dates"}},{"value":"2019-06-07","name":"date_epub","label":"Online publication date","group":{"name":"publication_dates","label":"Publication dates"}}]}}