{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T06:05:03Z","timestamp":1784527503148,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":75,"publisher":"IOP Publishing","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784505600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784505600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/info\/page\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784505600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/publishingsupport.iopscience.iop.org\/questions\/alternative-author-rights-policies\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]],"date-time":"2026-07-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1784505600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/publishingsupport.iopscience.iop.org\/questions\/alternative-author-rights-policies\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["308914\/Z\/23\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["308914\/Z\/23\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000270","name":"Natural Environment Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["NE\/S0074747\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NE\/S0074747\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000270","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["iopscience.iop.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Environ. Res. Lett."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,28]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Storm Eunice was a severe windstorm that impacted Central Europe in February 2022. The meteorology and synoptic dynamics of Eunice have been studied in depth in several studies examining features of the storm such as its sting jet. The contribution of climate change to the storm dynamics and severity was examined in previous work, which found that in counterfactual weather forecasts\u2014given an identical initial synoptic setup\u2014climate change had measurably increased the severity of the storm. Here we move beyond meteorological attribution and quantify the role of climate change in the insured losses incurred during Eunice in, to the best of our knowledge, the first impact attribution of its kind for a European windstorm event. We combine the same counterfactual weather forecasts with three loss models, including two state-of-the-art commercial models, finding that the increases in meteorological severity do translate through to significant increases in estimated loss. We estimate a conditional increase in insured loss of nearly \u20ac2 bn between pre-industrial and present-day climates. Of particular note is the existence of several members within the forecast ensembles whose losses are far greater than what unfolded in reality. This includes one realisation, simulated in a warmer \u2018future\u2019 climate, in which the estimated loss could reach over 10x the realised loss during Eunice. The plausible existence of such a catastrophic loss is of considerable relevance to a wide variety of stakeholders across adaptation planning and the financial sector. We suggest that our results practically demonstrate not only the utility of counterfactual weather forecasts in quantifying impacts attributable to climate change, but also the value of academic\u2014private partnerships in which the two sectors are able to bring different areas of expertise.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1088\/1748-9326\/ae886a","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T22:49:41Z","timestamp":1783637381000},"page":"144018","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The perfect storm: human influence on the loss potential of Eunice-like cyclones"],"prefix":"10.1088","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4470-1813","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Nicholas J","family":"Leach","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Oxford"},{"name":"University of Oxford"},{"name":"Climate X Ltd"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3402-2633","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Shirin","family":"Ermis","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Oxford"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-2810-389X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Aidan","family":"Brocklehurst","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aon Impact Forecasting"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2253-4129","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Dhirendra","family":"Kumar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Reading"},{"name":"Azim Premji University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alexandros","family":"Georgios","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aon Impact Forecasting"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-4114-019X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Lukas","family":"Braun","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aon Impact Forecasting"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0000-9452-278X","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Mark","family":"Dixon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cotality UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Justin","family":"Murphy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cotality UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Len","family":"Shaffrey","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Reading"},{"name":"National Oceanography Centre"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"266","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,20]]},"reference":[{"key":"erlae886abib1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1161","DOI":"10.5194\/hess-17-1161-2013","type":"journal-article","article-title":"GloFAS\u2014global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning","volume":"17","author":"Alfieri","year":"2013","journal-title":"Hydrol. 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