{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,23]],"date-time":"2026-10-23T20:02:31Z","timestamp":1792785751609,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":53,"publisher":"IOP Publishing","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791763200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791763200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/info\/page\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791763200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/publishingsupport.iopscience.iop.org\/questions\/alternative-author-rights-policies\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1791763200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/publishingsupport.iopscience.iop.org\/questions\/alternative-author-rights-policies\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"NSERC Discovery","award":["2022-05380"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022-05380"]}]},{"name":"Wellcome Trust","award":["209376\/Z\/17\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["209376\/Z\/17\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"https:\/\/ror.org\/029chgv08","id-type":"ROR","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"name":"New Frontiers in Research Fund","award":["2023-00956"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2023-00956"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["iopscience.iop.org"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Environ. Res.: Health"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,12,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Tropical cyclones (TCs) have had reported impacts on child marriage within certain communities, driven by disrupted livelihoods, displacement, and interruptions to education. However, the extent to which TCs affect national rates of child marriage has not been systematically studied. Here, we combine 12 888 607 person-years of nationally representative survey data on child marriage with high-resolution gridded wind speed data to estimate the effect of TCs on child marriage rates in 14 cyclone-exposed countries between 1983 and 2015. Using a distributed lag model, we estimate changes in child marriage rates up to three years following a cyclone. We find little measurable change in national child marriage rates after cyclones. We observe a small increase in the rate of child marriage in Mozambique, and subgroup analyses suggest that child marriage may have increased slightly among urban populations in Cambodia and Timor-Leste. Overall, these results indicate that, despite reported impacts, TCs are unlikely to be a dominant driver of child marriage rates globally.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,28]],"date-time":"2026-09-28T22:50:59Z","timestamp":1790635859000},"page":"045001","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/crossmark-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Impact of tropical cyclones on child marriage rates in 14 affected countries"],"prefix":"10.1088","volume":"4","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0003-9772-5664","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Anna Y","family":"Palmer","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"McGill University"},{"name":"McGill University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1698-4855","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yuta J","family":"Masuda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Allen Family Philanthropies"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0295-0918","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Aur\u00e9lie P","family":"Harou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McGill University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Margaret E","family":"Greene","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"GreeneWorks"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jai K","family":"Das","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aga Khan University"},{"name":"Aga Khan University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4587-6762","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Christina T","family":"Kwauk","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Unbounded Alliance"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8972-8318","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Brian E","family":"Robinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McGill University"},{"name":"McGill University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5170-6693","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alissa","family":"Koski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McGill University"},{"name":"McGill University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8397-6380","authenticated-orcid":true,"given":"Jill","family":"Baumgartner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"McGill University"},{"name":"McGill University"},{"name":"McGill University"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"266","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"erhaead12bib1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"769","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-025-00010-9","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Earth breaches 1.5 \u00b0C climate limit for the first time: what does it mean?","volume":"637","author":"Tollefson","year":"2025","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"erhaead12bib2","article-title":"UNEP\u2014UN Environment Programme","author":"Emissions Gap Report","year":"2024","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"589","DOI":"10.1017\/9781009157964.008","type":"web-resource","article-title":"Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risk. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate","author":"Collins","edition":"(eds.)"},{"key":"erhaead12bib4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"240","DOI":"10.1016\/j.tcrr.2020.01.004","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Tropical cyclones and climate change","volume":"8","author":"Walsh","year":"2019","journal-title":"Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev."},{"key":"erhaead12bib5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2021.105475","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Long-term impacts of tropical cyclones and fluvial floods on economic growth\u2014empirical evidence on transmission channels at different levels of development","volume":"144","author":"Krichene","year":"2021","journal-title":"World Dev."},{"key":"erhaead12bib6","article-title":"The causal effect of environmental catastrophe on long-run economic growth: evidence from 6700 cyclones","author":"Hsiang","year":"2014","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"152","DOI":"10.2471\/blt.22.288838","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Impact of tropical cyclones on food security, health and biodiversity","volume":"101","author":"Ortiz","year":"2023","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ."},{"key":"erhaead12bib8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"121","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586-024-07945-5","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Mortality caused by tropical cyclones in the United States","volume":"635","author":"Young","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"erhaead12bib9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"946","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.1682","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Association of tropical cyclones with county-level mortality in the US","volume":"327","author":"Parks","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"erhaead12bib10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"694","DOI":"10.1016\/s2542-5196(23)00143-2","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Global short-term mortality risk and burden associated with tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2019: a multi-country time-series study","volume":"7","author":"Huang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Lancet Planet Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"12232","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1820067116","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Mangroves shelter coastal economic activity from cyclones","volume":"116","author":"Hochard","year":"2019","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"erhaead12bib12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"271","DOI":"10.1162\/0034653053970339","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions","volume":"87","author":"Kahn","year":"2005","journal-title":"Rev. Econ. Stat."},{"key":"erhaead12bib13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"297","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-resource-073009-104211","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The economics of natural disasters","volume":"3","author":"Kellenberg","year":"2011","journal-title":"Resour. Energy Econ."},{"key":"erhaead12bib14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2413962122","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Decreased likelihood of schooling as a consequence of tropical cyclones: evidence from 13 low- and middle-income countries","volume":"122","author":"Jing","year":"2025","journal-title":"Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA"},{"key":"erhaead12bib15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"176","DOI":"10.1177\/1524838019835973","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Child abuse in natural disasters and conflicts: a systematic review","volume":"22","author":"Seddighi","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rauma Violence Abuse"},{"key":"erhaead12bib16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1203","DOI":"10.1093\/ajae\/aaz015","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The role of weather on schooling and work of young adults in Madagascar","volume":"101","author":"Marchetta","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am. J. Agric. Econ."},{"key":"erhaead12bib17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"280","DOI":"10.1016\/j.euroecorev.2015.09.004","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The tempest: Short- and long-term consequences of a natural disaster for children\u2019s development","volume":"80","author":"Deuchert","year":"2015","journal-title":"Eur. Econ. Rev."},{"key":"erhaead12bib18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"498","DOI":"10.1016\/j.worlddev.2006.03.007","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Credit, natural disasters, coffee, and educational attainment in rural Honduras","volume":"35","author":"SL","year":"2007","journal-title":"World Dev."},{"key":"erhaead12bib19","article-title":"The sustainable development goals report 2023: special edition","author":"UN DESA","year":"2023","type":"report"},{"key":"erhaead12bib20","article-title":"Child, early and forced marriage: ending and preventing forced marriage","author":"United Nations Human Rights Council","year":"2023","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"309","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-022-12707-x","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The health consequences of child marriage: a systematic review of the evidence","volume":"22","author":"Fan","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S9","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jadohealth.2021.09.020","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Mapping the field of child marriage: evidence, gaps, and future directions from a large-scale systematic scoping review, 2000\u20132019","volume":"70","author":"Siddiqi","year":"2022","journal-title":"J. Adolesc. Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib23","article-title":"Is an end to child marriage within reach? Latest trends and future prospects. 2023 update","author":"UNICEF","year":"2023","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"S13","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jadohealth.2021.09.001","type":"journal-article","article-title":"What are the drivers of child marriage? A conceptual framework to guide policies and programs","volume":"69","author":"Psaki","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Adolesc. Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib25","article-title":"Marry before your house is swept away","author":"HRW","year":"2015","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"303","DOI":"10.1007\/s11111-019-0312-3","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The nexus between extreme weather events, sexual violence, and early marriage: a study of vulnerable populations in Bangladesh","volume":"40","author":"Ahmed","year":"2019","journal-title":"Popul. Environ."},{"key":"erhaead12bib27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"948","DOI":"10.1017\/s0021932020000644","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Child marriage, climate vulnerability and natural disasters in coastal Bangladesh","volume":"53","author":"Asadullah","year":"2020","journal-title":"J. Biosoc. Sci."},{"key":"erhaead12bib28","article-title":"Weathering the storm: adolescent girls and climate change","author":"Plan International","year":"2011","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/17441692.2022.2095655","type":"journal-article","article-title":"What is the current evidence for the relationship between the climate and environmental crises and child marriage? A scoping review","volume":"18","author":"Pope","year":"2023","journal-title":"Glob Public Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib30","article-title":"Global programme to end child marriage climate change and child marriage","author":"UNFPA-UNICEF","year":"2023","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib31","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"741","DOI":"10.1111\/disa.12441","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Gender\u2010based violence before, during, and after cyclones: slow violence and layered disasters","volume":"45","author":"Rezwana","year":"2021","journal-title":"Disasters"},{"key":"erhaead12bib32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"879","DOI":"10.3982\/ecta15505","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Age of marriage, weather shocks, and the direction of marriage payments","volume":"88","author":"Corno","year":"2020","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"erhaead12bib33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"137","DOI":"10.1016\/j.wsif.2014.08.005","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Are climate challenges reinforcing child and forced marriage and dowry as adaptation strategies in the context of Bangladesh?","volume":"47","author":"Alston","year":"2014","journal-title":"Women\u2019s Stud. Int. Forum"},{"key":"erhaead12bib34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1922","DOI":"10.3390\/w13141922","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Gendered perspectives on climate change adaptation: a quest for social sustainability in Badlagaree village, Bangladesh","volume":"13","author":"Hossen","year":"2021","journal-title":"Water"},{"key":"erhaead12bib35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"531","DOI":"10.1186\/s12905-023-02634-3","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Prevalence and factors associated with child marriage, a systematic review","volume":"23","author":"Pourtaheri","year":"2023","journal-title":"BMC Women\u2019s Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","author":"Palmer","year":"2025","DOI":"10.82308\/22842","type":"book"},{"key":"erhaead12bib37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1686","DOI":"10.1002\/sd.3201","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The effect of extreme weather events on the frequency of child marriage: a systematic review of the evidence","volume":"33","author":"Palmer","year":"2024","journal-title":"Sustain. Dev."},{"key":"erhaead12bib38","article-title":"Demographic and Health Surveys (various) [Datasets] [Internet].","author":"ICF","year":"2024","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1111\/padr.12035","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Has child marriage declined in sub\u2010Saharan Africa? An analysis of trends in 31 countries","volume":"43","author":"Koski","year":"2017","journal-title":"Popul. Dev. Rev."},{"key":"erhaead12bib40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0258378","type":"journal-article","article-title":"New estimations of child marriage: evidence from 98 low- and middle-income countries","volume":"16","author":"Liang","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"erhaead12bib41","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"185","DOI":"10.5194\/essd-10-185-2018","type":"journal-article","article-title":"A global historical data set of tropical cyclone exposure (TCE-DAT)","volume":"10","author":"Geiger","year":"2017","journal-title":"Earth Syst. Sci. Data"},{"key":"erhaead12bib42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"363","DOI":"10.1175\/2009bams2755.1","type":"journal-article","article-title":"The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone data","volume":"91","author":"Knapp","year":"2010","journal-title":"Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc."},{"key":"erhaead12bib43","article-title":"Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale","author":"US Department of Commerce N","year":"2025","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1093\/qje\/qjac038","type":"journal-article","article-title":"When should you adjust standard errors for clustering?*","volume":"138","author":"Abadie","year":"2022","journal-title":"Q. J. Econ."},{"key":"erhaead12bib45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"238","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwad203","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Collider stratification bias I: principles and structure","volume":"193","author":"Banack","year":"2024","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"erhaead12bib46","article-title":"Towards ending child marriage: global trends and profiles of progress","author":"UNICEF","year":"2021","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib47","article-title":"Key drivers of the changing prevalence of child marriage in three countries in South Asia","author":"UNICEF","year":"2018","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib48","article-title":"UNICEF Ethiopia","author":"One size does not fit all","type":"web-resource"},{"key":"erhaead12bib49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"583","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-020-08714-5","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Ethnicity, religious affiliation and girl-child marriage: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative sample of female adolescents in Nigeria","volume":"20","author":"Mobolaji","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMC Public Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib50","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/14442213.2022.2132356","type":"journal-article","article-title":"A high price to pay: Weddings and waithood in Cambodia","volume":"24","author":"Estes","year":"2023","journal-title":"Asia Pac. J. Anthropol."},{"key":"erhaead12bib51","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"409","DOI":"10.1111\/jomf.12725","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Bridewealth marriage in the 21st century: A case study from rural Mozambique","volume":"83","author":"Chae","year":"2021","journal-title":"J. Marriage Fam."},{"key":"erhaead12bib52","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2015-000025","type":"journal-article","article-title":"Associations between bride price obligations and women\u2019s anger, symptoms of mental distress, poverty, spouse and family conflict and preoccupations with injustice in conflict-affected Timor-Leste","volume":"1","author":"Rees","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMJ Glob. Health"},{"key":"erhaead12bib53","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.5880\/pik.2017.008","type":"dataset","article-title":"A global data set of spatially-explicit tropical cycloneexposure (TCE-DAT). GFZ Data Services","author":"Geiger","year":"2017","unstructured":"Geiger T Frieler K Bresch D N 2017 A global data set of spatially-explicit tropical cycloneexposure (TCE-DAT). GFZ Data Services GFZ Data Services 10.5880\/pik.2017.008"}],"container-title":["Environmental Research: Health"],"original-title":[],"link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"am","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12","content-type":"text\/html","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"similarity-checking"},{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12\/pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]],"date-time":"2026-10-12T13:25:36Z","timestamp":1791811536000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]]},"references-count":53,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,12,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/2752-5309\/aead12","relation":{},"ISSN":["2752-5309"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2752-5309","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"Impact of tropical cyclones on child marriage rates in 14 affected countries","name":"article_title","label":"Article Title"},{"value":"Environmental Research: Health","name":"journal_title","label":"Journal Title"},{"value":"paper","name":"article_type","label":"Article Type"},{"value":"\u00a9 2026 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd","name":"copyright_information","label":"Copyright Information"},{"value":"2026-03-11","name":"date_received","label":"Date Received","group":{"name":"publication_dates","label":"Publication dates"}},{"value":"2026-09-28","name":"date_accepted","label":"Date Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_dates","label":"Publication dates"}},{"value":"2026-10-12","name":"date_epub","label":"Online publication date","group":{"name":"publication_dates","label":"Publication dates"}}]}}