{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,2]],"date-time":"2026-05-02T00:32:39Z","timestamp":1777681959152,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"SAGE Publications","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,1]],"date-time":"2013-03-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1362096000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/page\/policies\/text-and-data-mining-license"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["journals.sagepub.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Considerable effort has gone into making mathematical and computer models of smallpox spread and control measures, typically consisting of vaccination and quarantine. The orally available antiorthopoxvirus drug tecovirimat has recently completed Phase 2 clinical trials and shows promise as a smallpox control agent. We constructed 2 computer simulations to explore the use of tecovirimat in combination with vaccination and social cooperativity to control an outbreak. Two scenarios were considered: (1) a homogenously mixed, deterministic simulation of a single metropolitan area; and (2) a stochastic network of the 50 largest US metropolitan areas connected by commercial air traffic. Metropolitan-level mass vaccination coupled with drug treatment for all individuals who develop a fever considerably outperforms treating only those who develop smallpox's distinctive rash. Incorporating mass chemoprophylaxis represents another large improvement. More aggressive responses are more robust to low cooperation of the population with public health efforts and to faster disease spread. However, even with the most aggressive public health intervention, an attack that initially infects hundreds or thousands of individuals will need to be fought in multiple cities across the country.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,26]],"date-time":"2013-03-26T11:29:47Z","timestamp":1364297387000},"page":"59-72","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1177\/sage-journals-update-policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["The Role of Vaccination, Antiorthopoxvirus Drug, and Social Cooperativity in a Mathematical Model of Smallpox Control"],"prefix":"10.1177","volume":"11","author":[{"given":"Peter","family":"Finin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Pennsylvania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Akhila","family":"Kosaraju","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Pennsylvania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Eric","family":"Rose","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Pennsylvania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Harvey","family":"Rubin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Pennsylvania"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"179","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_3_1_2_2","volume-title":"History of International Public Health","author":"Fenner F","year":"1988","unstructured":"Fenner F. Smallpox and Its Eradication. History of International Public Health. Geneva: World Health Organization, 1988."},{"issue":"5562","key":"e_1_3_1_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2001","DOI":"10.1126\/science.295.5562.2001","article-title":"Dead virus walking","volume":"295","author":"Enserink M","year":"2002","unstructured":"Enserink M, , Stone R. Dead virus walking. Science, 2002; 295,5562:2001\u20132005.","journal-title":"Science"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.162282799"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1074674"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_3_1_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-10-25","article-title":"Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain\u2014the role of geographical scale and contact structure","volume":"10","author":"House T","year":"2010","unstructured":"House T, , Hall I, , Danon L, , Keeling MJ. Contingency planning for a deliberate release of smallpox in Great Britain\u2014the role of geographical scale and contact structure. BMC Infect Dis, 2010 Feb 14 10,1:25.","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_3_1_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"416","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMsa025075","article-title":"A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy","volume":"348","author":"Bozzette SA","year":"2003","unstructured":"Bozzette SA, , Boer R, , Bhatnagar V et al. A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy. N Engl J Med, 2003 Jan 30 348,5:416\u2013425.","journal-title":"N Engl J Med"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0510873103"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007783"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2217\/fvl.11.27"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"681","DOI":"10.1038\/nature02007","article-title":"Planning for smallpox outbreaks","volume":"425","author":"Ferguson NM","year":"2003","unstructured":"Ferguson NM, , Keeling MJ, , Edmunds WJ et al. Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature, 2003 Oct 16 425:681\u2013685.","journal-title":"Nature"},{"issue":"33","key":"e_1_3_1_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"12221","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0605502103","article-title":"Poxy models and rash decisions","volume":"103","author":"Cooper B","year":"2006","unstructured":"Cooper B. Poxy models and rash decisions. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2006; 103,33:12221\u201312222.","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268806007618"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_3_1_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwg103","article-title":"Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak","volume":"158","author":"Eichner M","year":"2003","unstructured":"Eichner M, , Dietz K. Transmission potential of smallpox: estimates based on detailed data from an outbreak. Am J Epidemiol, 2003; 158,2:110\u2013117.","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"issue":"21","key":"e_1_3_1_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2734","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.294.21.2734","article-title":"Adverse events associated with smallpox vaccination in the United States, January-October 2003","volume":"294","author":"Casey CG","year":"2005","unstructured":"Casey CG, , Iskander JK, , Roper MH et al. Adverse events associated with smallpox vaccination in the United States, January-October 2003. JAMA, 2005; 294,21:2734\u20132743.","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_16_2","first-page":"248","article-title":"Cardiac adverse events following smallpox vaccination\u2014United States, 2003","volume":"52","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2003","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Cardiac adverse events following smallpox vaccination\u2014United States, 2003. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep, 2003 Mar 52:248\u2013250.","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_17_2","unstructured":"Smallpox response plan and guidelines (version 3.0). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website November 26 2002. http:\/\/www.bt.cdc.gov\/agent\/smallpox\/response-plan\/. 2013 January 25."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_18_2","unstructured":"American factfinder. US Census Bureau website. 2010. http:\/\/factfinder2.census.gov\/faces\/tableservices\/jsf\/pages\/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_NSRD_GCTPL2.US24PR. 2013 January 25."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_19_2","unstructured":"Airline origin and destination survey (DB1B). Research and Innovative Technology Administration Bureau of Transportation Statistics website. 2010. http:\/\/www.transtats.bts.gov\/Tables.asp?DB_ID=125. 2013 January 25."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_20_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"20","DOI":"10.1186\/1742-4682-5-20","article-title":"Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox","volume":"5","author":"Nishiura H","year":"2008","unstructured":"Nishiura H, , Brockmann SO, , Eichner M. Extracting key information from historical data to quantify the transmission dynamics of smallpox. Theor Biol Med Model, 2008 Aug 20 5:20.","journal-title":"Theor Biol Med Model"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_21_2","first-page":"1826","article-title":"Bradbury. Epidemiological studies in smallpox. A study of intrafamilial transmission in a series of 254 infected families","volume":"56","author":"Rao AR","year":"1968","unstructured":"Rao AR, , Jacob ES, , Kamalakshi S, , Appaswamy S. Bradbury. Epidemiological studies in smallpox. A study of intrafamilial transmission in a series of 254 infected families. Indian J Med Res, 1968 Dec 56:1826\u20131854.","journal-title":"Indian J Med Res"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_22_2","first-page":"569","article-title":"Smallpox outbreak in Yugoslavia in 1972","volume":"61","author":"Cobeljic M","year":"2004","unstructured":"Cobeljic M. Smallpox outbreak in Yugoslavia in 1972. Vojnosanit Pregl, 2004; 61:569\u2013573.","journal-title":"Vojnosanit Pregl"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_23_2","first-page":"84","article-title":"Expected adverse events in a mass smallpox vaccination campaign","volume":"5","author":"Kemper AR","year":"2002","unstructured":"Kemper AR, , Davis MM, , Freed GL. Expected adverse events in a mass smallpox vaccination campaign. Eff Clin Pract, 2002 Mar-Apr 5:84\u201390.","journal-title":"Eff Clin Pract"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_3_1_24_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"426","DOI":"10.1086\/375823","article-title":"Separate worlds set to collide: smallpox, vaccinia virus vaccination, and human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome","volume":"37","author":"Amorosa VK","year":"2003","unstructured":"Amorosa VK, , Isaacs SN. Separate worlds set to collide: smallpox, vaccinia virus vaccination, and human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Clin Infect Dis, 2003 Aug 1 37,3:426\u2013432.","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_3_1_25_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"15","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01311113","article-title":"Partial deletion of the human host range gene in the attenuated vaccinia virus MVA","volume":"105","author":"Altenburger W","year":"1989","unstructured":"Altenburger W, , S\u00fcter CP, , Altenburger J. Partial deletion of the human host range gene in the attenuated vaccinia virus MVA. Arch Virol, 1989; 105,1-2:15\u201327.","journal-title":"Arch Virol"},{"issue":"27","key":"e_1_3_1_26_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3700","DOI":"10.1016\/S0264-410X(01)00075-5","article-title":"Safety of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) in immune-suppressed macaques","volume":"19","author":"Stittelaar KJ","year":"2001","unstructured":"Stittelaar KJ, , Kuiken T, , de Swart RL et al. Safety of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) in immune-suppressed macaques. Vaccine, 2001 Jun 14 19,27:3700\u20133709.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_27_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/378357"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_28_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa020534"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_29_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.antiviral.2008.03.005"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_3_1_30_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"768","DOI":"10.4269\/ajtmh.2007.76.768","article-title":"Efficacy of the antipoxvirus compound ST-246 for treatment of severe orthopoxvirus infection","volume":"76","author":"Sbrana E","year":"2007","unstructured":"Sbrana E, , Jordan R, , Hruby DE et al. Efficacy of the antipoxvirus compound ST-246 for treatment of severe orthopoxvirus infection. Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2007 Apr 76,4:768\u2013773.","journal-title":"Am J Trop Med Hyg"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_3_1_31_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"689","DOI":"10.1128\/AAC.00879-06","article-title":"Efficacy of delayed treatment with ST-246 given orally against systemic orthopoxvirus infections in mice","volume":"51","author":"Quenelle DC","year":"2007","unstructured":"Quenelle DC, , Buller RM, , Parker S et al. Efficacy of delayed treatment with ST-246 given orally against systemic orthopoxvirus infections in mice. Antimicrob Agents Chemother, 2007 Feb 51,2:689\u2013695.","journal-title":"Antimicrob Agents Chemother"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_32_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0912134107"},{"issue":"7","key":"e_1_3_1_33_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"933","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2007.11.095","article-title":"Immune responses to the smallpox vaccine given in combination with ST-246, a small-molecule inhibitor of poxvirus dissemination","volume":"26","author":"Grosenbach DW","year":"2008","unstructured":"Grosenbach DW, , Jordan R, , King DS et al. Immune responses to the smallpox vaccine given in combination with ST-246, a small-molecule inhibitor of poxvirus dissemination. Vaccine, 2008 Feb 13 26,7:933\u2013946.","journal-title":"Vaccine"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_34_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/AAC.00678-09"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_35_2","unstructured":"Half million were vaccinated in day. New York Times April 18 1947."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_36_2","unstructured":"US Census Bureau. 1950 Census. http:\/\/www2.census.gov\/prod2\/decennial\/documents\/23761117v1.zip. 2013 January 25."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_37_2","unstructured":"Key facts about the Cities Readiness Initiative (CRI). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website April 2 2008. http:\/\/emergency.cdc.gov\/cri\/facts.asp. 2013 January 25."},{"key":"e_1_3_1_38_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2011.06.107"},{"issue":"5","key":"e_1_3_1_39_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.4161\/hv.3.5.4310","article-title":"Trust and experience as predictors of HPV vaccine acceptance","volume":"3","author":"Marlow LA","year":"2007","unstructured":"Marlow LA, , Waller J, , Wardle J. Trust and experience as predictors of HPV vaccine acceptance. Hum Vaccin, 2007; 3,5:171\u2013175.","journal-title":"Hum Vaccin"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_3_1_40_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1016\/S0025-5564(03)00090-7","article-title":"Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox","volume":"185","author":"Kaplan EH","year":"2003","unstructured":"Kaplan EH, , Craft DL, , Wein LM. Analyzing bioterror response logistics: the case of smallpox. Math Biosci, 2003 Sep 185,1:33\u201372.","journal-title":"Math Biosci"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_41_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMp1005102"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_42_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2458-11-575"},{"key":"e_1_3_1_43_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0018479"}],"container-title":["Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,29]],"date-time":"2026-04-29T08:41:29Z","timestamp":1777452089000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,1]]},"references-count":42,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1089\/bsp.2012.0037","relation":{},"ISSN":["1538-7135","1557-850X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1538-7135","type":"print"},{"value":"1557-850X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2013,3,1]]}}}