{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,19]],"date-time":"2025-12-19T15:41:37Z","timestamp":1766158897466,"version":"3.41.2"},"reference-count":72,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,6]],"date-time":"2022-04-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1649203200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":399,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NSF REU 1820685"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NSF REU 1820685"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Department of Excellence Initiative of the Italian Ministry of University and Research"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Behaviours across terrorist groups differ based on a variety of factors, such as groups\u2019 resources or objectives. We here show that organizations can also be distinguished by network representations of their operations. We provide evidence in this direction in the frame of a computational methodology organized in two steps, exploiting data on attacks plotted by Al Shabaab, Boko Haram, the Islamic State and the Taliban in the 2013\u20132018 period. First, we present $\\textsf{LabeledSparseStruct}$, a graph embedding approach, to predict the group associated with each operational meta-graph. Second, we introduce $\\textsf{SparseStructExplanation}$, an algorithmic explainer based on $\\textsf{LabeledSparseStruct}$, that disentangles characterizing features for each organization, enhancing interpretability at the dyadic level. We demonstrate that groups can be discriminated according to the structure and topology of their operational meta-graphs, and that each organization is characterized by the recurrence of specific dyadic interactions among event features.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/comnet\/cnac008","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,3,10]],"date-time":"2022-03-10T12:13:52Z","timestamp":1646914432000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["The geometrical shapes of violence: predicting and explaining terrorist operations through graph embeddings"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"10","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7734-7956","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gian Maria","family":"Campedelli","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Sociology and Social Research, University of Trento , Via Verdi 26, 38122 Trento, Italy"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Janet","family":"Layne","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science, Boise State University . 777 W Main St., Boise, ID 83702, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jack","family":"Herzoff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science, Boise State University . 777 W Main St., Boise, ID 83702, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Edoardo","family":"Serra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Computer Science, Boise State University . 777 W Main St., Boise, ID 83702, USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"491","DOI":"10.1080\/10576108808435746","article-title":"The predictability of international terrorism: a time-series analysis","volume":"11","author":"Weimann,","year":"1988","journal-title":"Terrorism"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"307","DOI":"10.1177\/0022002700044003002","article-title":"Is transnational terrorism becoming more threatening?: A time-series investigation","volume":"44","author":"Enders,","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. Confl. Resolut."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"145","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-2478.00227","article-title":"Patterns of transnational terrorism, 1970-1999: alternative time-series estimates","volume":"46","author":"Enders,","year":"2002","journal-title":"Int. Stud. Q."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-011-9133-y","article-title":"Spatial and temporal patterns of terrorist attacks by ETA 1970 to 2007","volume":"28","author":"LaFree,","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Quant. Criminol."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"557","DOI":"10.1080\/07418825.2017.1340501","article-title":"A time-series analysis of terrorism: intervention, displacement, and diffusion of benefits","volume":"35","author":"Hsu,","year":"2018","journal-title":"Justice Q."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"163","DOI":"10.1057\/9780230374676_10","article-title":"Decision-making","volume-title":"Terrorists\u2019 Target Selection","author":"Drake,","year":"1998"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"5","article-title":"Terrorist decision-making: insights from economics and political science","volume":"6","author":"Shapiro,","year":"2012","journal-title":"Perspect. Terror."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"228","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh031","article-title":"Kleinman et al. Respond to \u201cSurveilling surveillance","volume":"159","author":"Kleinman,","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/17-AOAS1112","article-title":"Modeling and estimation for self-exciting spatio-temporal models of terrorist activity","volume":"12","author":"Clark,","year":"2018","journal-title":"Ann. Appl. Stat."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"285","DOI":"10.1017\/S1537592712000679","article-title":"Terrorism and civil war: a spatial and temporal approach to a conceptual problem","volume":"10","author":"Findley,","year":"2012","journal-title":"Perspect. Politics"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"5247","DOI":"10.1109\/BigData50022.2020.9377854","article-title":"Large-scale sparse structural node representation","volume-title":"2020 IEEE International Conference on Big Data (Big Data)","author":"Serra,","year":"2020"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"16","DOI":"10.1057\/9780230374676_3","article-title":"Ideology","volume-title":"Terrorists\u2019 Target Selection","author":"Drake,","year":"1998"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"258","DOI":"10.1080\/19361610902929990","article-title":"The softest of targets: a study on terrorist target selection","volume":"4","author":"Asal,","year":"2009","journal-title":"J. Appl. Security Res."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"376","DOI":"10.1080\/19361610.2018.1463140","article-title":"Terrorist ideologies and target selection","volume":"13","author":"Ahmed,","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Appl. Security Res."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"815","DOI":"10.1177\/0022343316667999","article-title":"Twisting arms and sending messages: terrorist tactics in civil war","volume":"53","author":"Polo,","year":"2016","journal-title":"J. Peace Res."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"437","DOI":"10.1017\/S0022381608080419","article-title":"The nature of the beast: organizational structures and the lethality of terrorist attacks","volume":"70","author":"Asal,","year":"2008","journal-title":"J. Politics"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"559","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007123412000452","article-title":"Repression hurts: coercive government responses and the demise of terrorist campaigns","volume":"43","author":"Daxecker,","year":"2013","journal-title":"Br. J. Political Sci."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8533","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-021-87709-7","article-title":"Learning future terrorist targets through temporal meta-graphs","volume":"11","author":"Campedelli,","year":"2021","journal-title":"Sci. Rep."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1007\/s41109-019-0184-6","article-title":"A complex networks approach to find latent clusters of terrorist groups","volume":"4","author":"Campedelli,","year":"2019","journal-title":"Appl. Netw. Sci."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/09546553.2021.2003785","article-title":"Multi-modal networks reveal patterns of operational similarity of terrorist organizations","author":"Campedelli,","year":"2021","journal-title":"Terror. Political Violence"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1300\/J460v01n04_06","article-title":"Researching terrorist networks","volume":"1","author":"Asal,","year":"2006","journal-title":"J. Security Educ."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"45","article-title":"Social network analysis in the study of terrorism and political violence","volume":"44","author":"Perliger,","year":"2011","journal-title":"PS: Political Sci. Politics"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.4324\/9781315885018","volume-title":"Crime and Networks","author":"Morselli,","year":"2013"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113666","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2020.113666","article-title":"Robust link prediction in criminal networks: a case study of the Sicilian Mafia","volume":"161","author":"Calderoni,","year":"2020","journal-title":"Expert Syst. Appl."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1463","DOI":"10.1007\/s11156-021-00984-3","article-title":"Evaluating risks-based communities of Mafia companies: a complex networks perspective","volume":"57","author":"Castellano,","year":"2021","journal-title":"Rev. Quant. Finan. Account."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2020.07.011","article-title":"Anagraphical relationships and crime specialization within Cosa Nostra","volume":"64","author":"Tumminello,","year":"2021","journal-title":"Soc. Netw."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"989","DOI":"10.1093\/comnet\/cny002","article-title":"The dynamical structure of political corruption networks","volume":"6","author":"Ribeiro,","year":"2018","journal-title":"J. Complex Netw."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"13","DOI":"10.1007\/s41109-020-00258-2","article-title":"Corruption and complexity: a scientific framework for the analysis of corruption networks","volume":"5","author":"Luna-Pla,","year":"2020","journal-title":"Appl. Netw. Sci."},{"volume":"32","key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"301"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"143","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2006.05.001","article-title":"The efficiency\/security trade-off in criminal networks","volume":"29","author":"Morselli,","year":"2007","journal-title":"Soc. Netw."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1468-5914.2009.00421.x","article-title":"Positioning theory and terrorist networks","volume":"40","author":"Schmidle,","year":"2010","journal-title":"J. Theory Soc. Behav."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"33","DOI":"10.1002\/pam.20619","article-title":"A preliminary theory of dark network resilience: a preliminary theory of dark network resilience","volume":"31","author":"Bakker,","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Policy Anal. Manag."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.5210\/fm.v7i4.941","article-title":"Uncloaking terrorist networks","author":"Krebs,","year":"2002","journal-title":"First Monday"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"97","DOI":"10.1057\/sj.2012.21","article-title":"Social network analysis: a case study of the Islamist terrorist network","volume":"27","author":"Medina,","year":"2014","journal-title":"Security J."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"270","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2016.09.004","article-title":"Changing organizational structures of jihadist networks in the Netherlands","volume":"48","author":"de Bie,","year":"2017","journal-title":"Soc. Netw."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"171","DOI":"10.1016\/j.socnet.2017.01.005","article-title":"Criminal collaboration and risk: the drivers of Al Qaeda\u2019s network structure before and after 9\/11","volume":"51","author":"Ouellet,","year":"2017","journal-title":"Soc. Netw."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1080\/10967494.2015.1027431","article-title":"With friends like these ... why terrorist organizations ally","volume":"19","author":"Asal,","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. Public Manag. J."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0181405","article-title":"Online extremism and the communities that sustain it: detecting the ISIS supporting community on Twitter","volume":"12","author":"Benigni,","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"21","DOI":"10.1145\/3078897.3080534","article-title":"Detection of terrorism-related twitter communities using centrality scores","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Multimedia Forensics and Security, MFSec \u201917","author":"Gialampoukidis,","year":"2017"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ins.2017.07.030","article-title":"Contagion dynamics of extremist propaganda in social networks","volume":"418-419","author":"Ferrara,","year":"2017","journal-title":"Inf. Sci."},{"volume-title":"The Strategy of Conflict","year":"1980","author":"Schelling,","key":"2023040600413492400_"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"554","DOI":"10.2307\/2010135","article-title":"Reasons and reason: collective political activity in comparative and historical perspective","volume":"33","author":"Waterman,","year":"1981","journal-title":"World Politics"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","article-title":"The logic of terrorism: terrorist behavior as a product of strategic choice. (W. Reich, ed.)","volume-title":"Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind","author":"Crenshaw,","year":"1990"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00869591","article-title":"The calculus of dissent: an analysis of terrorists\u2019 choice of targets","volume":"76","author":"Sandler,","year":"1988","journal-title":"Synthese"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"473","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev.polisci.6.121901.085601","article-title":"Terrorist decision making","volume":"6","author":"McCormick,","year":"2003","journal-title":"Annu. Rev. Political Sci."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"1","article-title":"Graph representation learning","volume":"14","author":"Hamilton,","year":"2020","journal-title":"Synth. Lect. Artif. Intell. Mach. Learn."},{"article-title":"Representation learning on graphs: methods and applications","year":"2018","author":"Hamilton,","key":"2023040600413492400_"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","article-title":"Semi-supervised classification with graph convolutional networks","author":"Kipf,","year":"2017","journal-title":"arXiv:1609.02907 [cs, stat]"},{"article-title":"How powerful are graph neural networks","year":"2018","author":"Xu,","key":"2023040600413492400_"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"181","DOI":"10.1080\/09546550701246817","article-title":"Introducing the global terrorism database","volume":"19","author":"LaFree,","year":"2007","journal-title":"Terror. Political Violence"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"12","article-title":"A reduction of a graph to a canonical form and an algebra arising during this reduction","volume":"2","author":"Weisfeiler,","year":"1968","journal-title":"Nauchno-Technicheskaya Informatsia"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"1025","article-title":"Inductive representation learning on large graphs","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems, NIPS\u201917","author":"Hamilton,","year":"2017"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"855","DOI":"10.1145\/2939672.2939754","article-title":"node2vec: scalable feature learning for networks","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining","author":"Grover,","year":"2016"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.1145\/3097983.3098061","article-title":"Learning node representations from structural identity","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 23rd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining","author":"Ribeiro,","year":"2017"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1320","DOI":"10.1145\/3219819.3220025","article-title":"Learning structural node embeddings via diffusion wavelets","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 24th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery & Data Mining","author":"Donnat,","year":"2018"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1145\/2939672.2939778","article-title":"\u201cWhy should I trust you?\u201d: explaining the predictions of any classifier","author":"Ribeiro,","year":"2016"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-011-9153-7","article-title":"Microcycles of violence: evidence from terrorist attacks by ETA and the FMLN","volume":"28","author":"Behlendorf,","year":"2012","journal-title":"J. Quant. Criminol."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"235","DOI":"10.1007\/s11417-020-09326-z","article-title":"Microcycles of terrorist violence in Turkey: a spatio-temporal analysis of the PKK attacks","volume":"16","author":"Duru,","year":"2021","journal-title":"Asian J. Criminol."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126","DOI":"10.1057\/s41284-019-00212-7","article-title":"An investigation into microcycles of violence by the Taliban","volume":"34","author":"Rieber-Mohn,","year":"2021","journal-title":"Security J."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"46","article-title":"Women, Gender and the evolving tactics of Boko Haram","volume":"5","author":"Zenn,","year":"2014","journal-title":"Contemp. Voices St Andrews J. Int. Relat."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"610","DOI":"10.1080\/09546553.2015.1005742","article-title":"Theorizing the Expansion of the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria","volume":"29","author":"Weeraratne,","year":"2017","journal-title":"Terror. Political Violence"},{"article-title":"Boko Haram\u2019s cross-border attacks: tactical manoeuvring to mitigate weakness","year":"2017","author":"Voronkova,","key":"2023040600413492400_"},{"article-title":"The costs of Boko Haram attacks on critical telecommunication infrastructure in Nigeria","year":"2013","author":"Onuoha,","key":"2023040600413492400_"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"116","DOI":"10.1080\/09546553.2016.1165213","article-title":"The evolution of political violence: the case of Somalia\u2019s Al-Shabaab","volume":"30","author":"Mueller,","year":"2018","journal-title":"Terror. Political Violence"},{"article-title":"Social network analysis as an approach to combat terrorism: past, present, and future research. Homeland Security Affairs, 2","year":"2006","author":"Ressler,","key":"2023040600413492400_"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","volume-title":"Social Networks, Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism","author":"Bouchard,","year":"2017","edition":"1st edn"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"295","DOI":"10.1007\/s10940-012-9181-y","article-title":"Terrorism risk, resilience and volatility: a comparison of terrorism patterns in three Southeast Asian countries","volume":"29","author":"White,","year":"2013","journal-title":"J. Quant. Criminol."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"377","DOI":"10.1017\/S0956792515000686","article-title":"Spatio-temporal patterns of IED usage by the Provisional Irish Republican Army","volume":"27","author":"Tench,","year":"2016","journal-title":"Eur. J. Appl. Math."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"281","DOI":"10.1080\/07388940701643623","article-title":"Transnational terrorism hot spots: identification and impact evaluation","volume":"24","author":"Braithwaite,","year":"2007","journal-title":"Conflict Manag. Peace Sci."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"308","DOI":"10.1177\/0738894210374397","article-title":"Galton\u2019s problem and contagion in international terrorism along civilizational lines","volume":"27","author":"Neumayer,","year":"2010","journal-title":"Conflict Manag. Peace Sci."},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","article-title":"Towards a rigorous science of interpretable machine learning","author":"Doshi-Velez,","year":"2017","journal-title":"arXiv:1702.08608 [cs, stat]"},{"key":"2023040600413492400_","first-page":"417","article-title":"Interpretable machine learning \u2014 a brief history, state-of-the-art and challenges. ECML PKDD 2020 Workshops","author":"Molnar,","year":"2020"}],"container-title":["Journal of Complex Networks"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/comnet\/article-pdf\/10\/2\/cnac008\/43290087\/cnac008.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/comnet\/article-pdf\/10\/2\/cnac008\/43290087\/cnac008.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,18]],"date-time":"2023-11-18T17:33:41Z","timestamp":1700328821000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/comnet\/article\/doi\/10.1093\/comnet\/cnac008\/6564024"}},"subtitle":[],"editor":[{"given":"Carlo","family":"Piccardi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"editor","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,3]]},"references-count":72,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,3]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/comnet\/cnac008","relation":{},"ISSN":["2051-1310","2051-1329"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"2051-1310"},{"type":"electronic","value":"2051-1329"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2022,4,1]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,3,3]]},"article-number":"cnac008"}}