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This presents central challenge to empirical researchers. If the value of proxies derives from their deniability, this same quality should mean that implausibly deniable types\u2014the types sponsors supposedly wish to avoid\u2014receive disproportionate attention in data and discourse. Accordingly, proxy activity appears to have flagged across several widely used datasets, depending on how the data are parsed. Do proxies still pay? A formal model is used to hypothesize about how new norms of attribution (specifically, the willingness of victims to make accusations on the basis of circumstantial evidence) can encourage capable states to insource more than they outsource. In the model, victims have the power to decide whether denials are plausible. \u201cUsual suspects\u201d who learn that they will take the heat regardless have fewer incentives to rely on proxies. Empirical evidence on insourcing patterns offers backdoor support for this proposition. The findings should decrease our confidence in plausible deniability as a logic for why states outsource to proxies. The paper joins an emerging body of research that has questioned the role of plausible deniability in covert action, including cyber conflict.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/cybsec\/tyac007","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,10]],"date-time":"2022-09-10T08:59:08Z","timestamp":1662800348000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["The illogic of plausible deniability: why proxy conflict in cyberspace may no longer pay"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"8","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4278-4144","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Justin Key","family":"Canfil","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School , Cambridge, MA 02138, US"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"2022121515105028200_bib1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"40","DOI":"10.1080\/03071847.2013.787733","article-title":"Proxy warfare and the future of conflict","volume":"158","author":"Mumford","year":"2013","journal-title":"RUSI J"},{"key":"2022121515105028200_bib2","article-title":"Friends with benefits? 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