{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T16:37:56Z","timestamp":1782232676809,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":87,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,9,29]],"date-time":"2019-09-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1569715200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":271,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Despite the growing literature on cyber security, most studies have sidestepped important questions of how conflict escalates in the cyber domain. To better understand this dynamic, we advance two main theoretical pathways of escalation, one in which actors respond with increasing intensity based on the effect of an attack, irrespective of how it is conducted (through cyber, conventional, or nuclear) and another in which the means of attack determines the actor\u2019s willingness to escalate. We then test those effects- and means-based pathways with an original experiment that probes support for escalation, focusing on the American public, a key actor in debates about nuclear escalation and deterrence. Our study suggests that cyberattacks create a threshold that restrains the escalation of conflict. Americans are less likely to support retaliation with force when the scenario involves a cyberattack even when they perceive the magnitude of attacks across domains to be comparable. Our findings provide support for cyber strategies based on assumptions of cyber thresholds, while also casting doubt on the credibility of cyber deterrence by punishment. More broadly, our research suggests effects-based theories of escalation may not help understand the impact of emerging technologies on strategic stability.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/cybsec\/tyz007","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,7,17]],"date-time":"2020-07-17T11:15:23Z","timestamp":1594984523000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":79,"title":["Escalation firebreaks in the cyber, conventional, and nuclear domains: moving beyond effects-based logics"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"Sarah","family":"Kreps","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Political Science Department, Cornell University, 313 White Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jacquelyn","family":"Schneider","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,9,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B1","first-page":"123","volume-title":"Problems of National Strategy: A Book of Readings","author":"Enthoven","year":"1965"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B2","first-page":"105","volume-title":"Turning Point: The Gulf War and U.S. Military Strategy","author":"Schelling","year":"1994"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B3","volume-title":"The Long Peace: Inquiries into the History of the Cold War","author":"Gaddis","year":"1987"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1162\/002081899550959","article-title":"The nuclear taboo: the United States and the normative basis of nuclear non-use","volume":"53","author":"Tannenwald","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int Organ"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B5","article-title":"The psychology of nuclear restraint","author":"Hymans","year":"2015","journal-title":"Bull Atomic Scientists"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"126","DOI":"10.2307\/2539198","article-title":"The political economy of nuclear restraint","volume":"19","author":"Solingen","year":"1994","journal-title":"Int Sec"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B7","volume-title":"Daedalus","author":"Potter","year":"2010"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"59","DOI":"10.2307\/20041735","article-title":"The military role of nuclear weapons: perceptions and misperceptions","volume":"62","author":"McNamara","year":"1983","journal-title":"Foreign Affairs"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.2307\/20041081","article-title":"Mad versus nuts","volume":"60","author":"Kenny","year":"1982","journal-title":"Foreign Affairs"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.21236\/ADA553620","volume-title":"Nuclear Lessons for Cyber Security","author":"Nye","year":"2011"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.21236\/ADA601645","volume-title":"Cyber Analogies","author":"Goldman","year":"2014"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B12","author":"Schneider","year":"2017"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B13","first-page":"7","article-title":"The role of effects, saliencies and norms in US cyberwar doctrine","volume":"3","author":"Farrell","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Cybersecurity"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1177\/2053168017715930","article-title":"Warring from the virtual to the real: assessing the public\u2019s threshold for war over cyber security","volume":"4","author":"Kreps","year":"2017","journal-title":"Res Politics"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1162\/002081899550959","article-title":"The nuclear taboo: the United States and the normative basis of nuclear non-use","volume":"53","author":"Tannenwald","year":"1999","journal-title":"Int Organ"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B16","volume-title":"The Purpose of Intervention: Changing Beliefs about the Use of Force","author":"Finnemore","year":"2004"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9780511491412","volume-title":"The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation: Identity, Emotions and Foreign Policy","author":"Hymans","year":"2006"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B18"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B19"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B20","volume-title":"American Public Opinion on NATO Extended Deterrence and Use of Nuclear Weapons","author":"Graham","year":"1989"},{"key":"2020071622482333500_tyz007-B21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"54","DOI":"10.2307\/2539273","article-title":"Why do states build nuclear weapons? 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