{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,3]],"date-time":"2026-07-03T19:42:01Z","timestamp":1783107721095,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,26]],"date-time":"2025-08-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1756166400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":25,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Shaanxi Provincial Key Research and Development Program","award":["2022GY-311"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2022GY-311"]}]},{"name":"Shaanxi Provincial Special Support Program for Leading Talents","award":["W099115"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["W099115"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>In the process of complex product design, rapid design changes bring product development risk. The study of complex product change propagation is an important means to reduce change risks. Traditional methods model the product structure into a network and predict the impact of change propagation through network attributes. However, these methods ignore the form elements of industrial design based on product structure, and the influence mechanism of the designer in the process of change propagation. To explore the influence of industrial design in change propagation, this study proposes a risk prediction method for industrial design change propagation based on complex network evolution. A comprehensive evaluation method based on network and design scheme correlation characteristics is developed to map the structure layer and the form layer, resulting in a multilayer industrial design network model. By extracting influencing factors from designers, a designer-constrained and driven industrial design change propagation and evolution method is established to simulate the real-world influence of design team behavior and support dynamic risk prediction. Finally, the effectiveness and reliability of the method are verified through an engineering case involving the industrial design change of an intelligent cabin. For industrial design change, it performed with better accuracy and robustness.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/jcde\/qwaf084","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,25]],"date-time":"2025-08-25T11:22:34Z","timestamp":1756120954000},"page":"361-381","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["A risk prediction method for change propagation based on industrial design network evolution"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"12","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-9845-6130","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yiwei","family":"Sun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University , Youyi West Road, Xian, Shaanxi ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yao","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University , Youyi West Road, Xian, Shaanxi ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xian","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University , Youyi West Road, Xian, Shaanxi ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2714-1220","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dengkai","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern Polytechnical University , Youyi West Road, Xian, Shaanxi ,","place":["China"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,26]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib1","first-page":"117","article-title":"Concepts of change propagation analysis in engineering design","volume":"34","author":"Arindam","year":"2022","journal-title":"Research in Engineering Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib2","first-page":"939","article-title":"Using an engineering change propagation method to support aircraft assembly tooling design","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 6th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation","author":"Bing\u00a0Tang","year":"2016"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"154","DOI":"10.1109\/EH.2002.1029881","article-title":"Coevolution of form and function in the design of micro air vehicles","author":"Bugajska","year":"2002","journal-title":"Proceedings 2002 NASA\/DoD Conference on Evolvable Hardware"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"12","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijadr.2023.05.001","article-title":"An ergonomic design method of manned cabin driven by human operation performance","volume":"1","author":"Chen","year":"2023","journal-title":"Advanced Design Research"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1419","DOI":"10.1007\/s10845-010-0454-8","article-title":"A network-based assessment approach for change impacts on complex product","volume":"23","author":"Cheng","year":"2012","journal-title":"Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"483","DOI":"10.1109\/TEM.2011.2164082","article-title":"Predicting change propagation and impact on design schedule due to external changes","volume":"59","author":"Chua","year":"2012","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"103656","DOI":"10.1016\/j.compind.2022.103656","article-title":"Engineering change risk assessment: Quantitative and qualitative change characterization","volume":"140","author":"Eltaief","year":"2022","journal-title":"Comput. Ind."},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"840","DOI":"10.1016\/j.camwa.2011.12.063","article-title":"Differentiating complex network models: An engineering perspective","volume":"64","author":"Fan","year":"2012","journal-title":"Comput. Math. Appl."},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"114664","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eswa.2021.114664","article-title":"Propagation path optimization of product attribute design changes based on petri net fusion ant colony algorithm","volume":"173","author":"Gan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Expert Systems with Applications"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2021WR031304","DOI":"10.1029\/2021WR031304","article-title":"A novel approach to analyze the isolation valve system based on the complex network theory","volume":"58","author":"Giustolisi","year":"2022","journal-title":"Water Resources Research"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1080\/09544828.2015.1015783","article-title":"Industrial evaluation of fbs linkage\u2013a method to support engineering change management","volume":"26","author":"Hamraz","year":"2015","journal-title":"Journal of Engineering Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"411","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ergon.2004.10.007","article-title":"Applying a hybrid approach based on fuzzy neural network and genetic algorithm to product form design","volume":"35","author":"Hsiao","year":"2005","journal-title":"International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib13","first-page":"1479","article-title":"The analyzing of the relationship between function and form in industrial product design process optimization","volume":"468\u2013471","author":"Jun","year":"2012","journal-title":"Advanced Materials Research"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib14","first-page":"211","article-title":"Design structure matrix-based modularization approach for complex systems with multiple design constraints","volume":"23","author":"Kaushik","year":"2019","journal-title":"Systems Engineering"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"28002","DOI":"10.1209\/0295-5075\/117\/28002","article-title":"The role of direct links for link prediction in evolving networks","volume":"117","author":"ke\u00a0Shang","year":"2017","journal-title":"Europhysics Letters"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"249","DOI":"10.1007\/s00163-022-00388-x","article-title":"A modeling framework to support the implementation of engineering changes in designing complex products","volume":"33","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"Research in Engineering Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib21","first-page":"e13","article-title":"A dynamic model for engineering change propagations in multiple product development stages","volume":"36","author":"Li","year":"2022","journal-title":"AI EDAM"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"109248","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2023.109248","article-title":"The robustness of complex product development projects under design change risk propagation with gray attack information","volume":"235","author":"Li","year":"2023","journal-title":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2733","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2021.1901155","article-title":"Towards understanding dynamic design change propagation in complex product development via complex network approach","volume":"60","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"International Journal of Production Research"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"191","DOI":"10.3901\/JME.2021.09.191","article-title":"Module partition method for complex products considering the change risk","volume":"57","author":"Li","year":"2021","journal-title":"Journal of Mechanical Engineering"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110340","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ress.2024.110340","article-title":"Combining improved dfmea with knowledge graph for component risk analysis of complex products","volume":"251","author":"Li","year":"2024","journal-title":"Reliability Engineering & System Safety"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"102384","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aei.2024.102384","article-title":"Research on module partition of complex products considering influence of change propagation","volume":"60","author":"Liu","year":"2024","journal-title":"Advanced Engineering Informatics"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102595","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aei.2024.102595","article-title":"Difference identification of 3d cad models based on key-point matching oriented to engineering change management","volume":"62","author":"Lv","year":"2024","journal-title":"Advanced Engineering Informatics"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib24","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"200175","DOI":"10.1016\/j.sasc.2024.200175","article-title":"Adamic\u2013adar similarity indexed wald boost data classification for diabetic disease diagnosis with big data","volume":"6","author":"M","year":"2024","journal-title":"Systems and Soft Computing"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2022\/7488439","article-title":"Multiobjective optimization of propagation path in automotive product design change based on mopso","volume":"2022","author":"Ni","year":"2022","journal-title":"Mobile Information Systems"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1550","DOI":"10.1080\/09544828.2024.2387218","article-title":"Aligning a collaborative resistance model with a change management process: a case study in automation in industry","volume":"35","author":"Nicole","year":"2024","journal-title":"Journal of Engineering Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"479","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcde.2019.02.004","article-title":"Conceptual and detailed design knowledge management in customized production\u2013industrial perspective","volume":"6","author":"Pokojski","year":"2019","journal-title":"Journal of Computational Design and Engineering"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"151","DOI":"10.1177\/1063293X16671771","article-title":"A verification and validation planning method to address change propagation effects in engineering design and manufacturing","volume":"25","author":"Prabhu","year":"2017","journal-title":"Concurrent Engineering"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1310","DOI":"10.1002\/sd.2731","article-title":"The aesthetics of sustainable industrial design: Form and function in the circular design process","volume":"32","author":"Sareh","year":"2023","journal-title":"Sustainable Development"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib30","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"997","DOI":"10.1007\/s12008-023-01648-3","article-title":"The form-affordance-function (faf) triangle of design","volume":"28","author":"Sareh","year":"2024","journal-title":"International Journal on Interactive Design and Manufacturing"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib37","first-page":"109375","article-title":"An improved asymptotic test for the Jaccard similarity index for binary data","volume-title":"Statistics & Probability Letters","author":"Scott","year":"2022"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3610","DOI":"10.1109\/JSYST.2019.2899988","article-title":"An infinite regress model of design change propagation in complex systems","volume":"13","author":"Serhad","year":"2019","journal-title":"IEEE Systems Journal"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"120","DOI":"10.1080\/09544828.2021.1994531","article-title":"Planning unplanned design iterations using risk management and learning strategies","volume":"33","author":"Shafqat","year":"2022","journal-title":"Journal of Engineering Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"433","DOI":"10.1007\/s00170-024-13877-1","article-title":"Product design change propagation analysis in a manufacturing environment with machine learning","volume":"136","author":"Shivankar","year":"2025","journal-title":"The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"114465","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chaos.2024.114465","article-title":"Practical stability criteria for discrete fractional neural networks in product form design analysis","volume":"179","author":"Stamov","year":"2024","journal-title":"Chaos, Solitons & Fractals"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4941","DOI":"10.1080\/00207543.2018.1437287","article-title":"Towards a human factors and ergonomics integration framework in the early product design phase: Function-task-behaviour","volume":"56","author":"Sun","year":"2018","journal-title":"International Journal of Production Research"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1023","DOI":"10.1080\/09544828.2024.2355762","article-title":"Research on multi-objective optimisation of product form design based on kansei engineering","volume":"35","author":"Tang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Journal of Engineering Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib38","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"699","DOI":"10.1016\/S0010-4485(00)00100-7","article-title":"Function-to-form mapping: model, representation and applications in design synthesis","volume":"33","author":"Utpal","year":"2001","journal-title":"Comput. Aided Des."},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1569","DOI":"10.1017\/dsd.2020.121","article-title":"The neurophysiological activations of novice and experienced professionals when designing and problem-solving","volume":"1","author":"Vieira","year":"2020","journal-title":"Proceedings of the Design Society: DESIGN Conference"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib40","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"102303","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aei.2023.102303","article-title":"Adaptive design change considering making small impact on the original manufacturing process","volume":"59","author":"Wang","year":"2024","journal-title":"Advanced Engineering Informatics"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib41","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"081009","DOI":"10.1115\/1.4027495","article-title":"Predicting change propagation in complex design workflows","volume":"136","author":"Wynn","year":"2014","journal-title":"Journal of Mechanical Design"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib42","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1561","DOI":"10.1093\/jcde\/qwad070","article-title":"Data-driven intelligent computational design for products: method, techniques, and applications","volume":"10","author":"Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Journal of Computational Design and Engineering"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib43","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"869","DOI":"10.1109\/TEM.2018.2884242","article-title":"A bayesian networks approach to estimate engineering change propagation risk and duration","volume":"67","author":"Yeasin","year":"2020","journal-title":"IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib44","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"108053","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cie.2022.108053","article-title":"Requirement-driven engineering change management in product design","volume":"168","author":"Yin","year":"2022","journal-title":"Computers & Industrial Engineering"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib45","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"17389","DOI":"10.1109\/ACCESS.2022.3149001","article-title":"Complex network\u2013based change propagation path optimization in mechanical product development","volume":"10","author":"Yin","year":"2022","journal-title":"IEEE Access"},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.1155\/2022\/1994257","article-title":"Analysis of the impact of change propagation within complex product modules","volume":"2022","author":"Ying","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci. Program."},{"key":"2025082705112383400_bib47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"3058","DOI":"10.1108\/K-05-2020-0285","article-title":"A network-based four-phase routing approach of multisource design change propagation on complex products","volume":"50","author":"Zhang","year":"2021","journal-title":"Kybernetes"}],"container-title":["Journal of Computational Design and Engineering"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcde\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/jcde\/qwaf084\/64138211\/qwaf084.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcde\/article-pdf\/12\/8\/361\/64138211\/qwaf084.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcde\/article-pdf\/12\/8\/361\/64138211\/qwaf084.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,27]],"date-time":"2025-08-27T09:11:32Z","timestamp":1756285892000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/jcde\/article\/12\/8\/361\/8241354"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"references-count":47,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,8,4]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/jcde\/qwaf084","relation":{},"ISSN":["2288-5048"],"issn-type":[{"value":"2288-5048","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,8]]}}}