{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,9]],"date-time":"2026-10-09T16:00:32Z","timestamp":1791561632338,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,6]],"date-time":"2025-12-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1764979200000},"content-version":"unspecified","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["lww.com","ovid.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,1]]},"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>\n \n Purpose<\/jats:title>\n United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) Step 2 Clinical Knowledge (CK) scores have been predictive of performance on in-training examinations in various fields, including internal medicine and surgery. As of 2022, USMLE Step 1, a basic science examination that has been studied as a strong predictor of Step 2 CK scores, has transitioned to pass\/fail grading. This study aims to identify factors that predict performance on the Step 2 exam, focusing on comparisons with prior standardized test scores.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Method<\/jats:title>\n In this single-institution cross-sectional study, data from 600 medical students at the University of California San Francisco who matriculated between 2016 and 2019 were analyzed. Scores on the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT), Comprehensive Basic Sciences Examination (CBSE), Open-Ended Question (OEQ) in-house block exams, and National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) subject examinations were collected. There were 12 OEQ exams taken during the preclinical foundational science blocks. Multivariable regression models were used to examine MCAT, CBSE, OEQ, and NBME subject exam score predictability of Step 2 CK score. Data were analyzed in February 2023.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Results<\/jats:title>\n \n A model containing the MCAT combined percentile, CBSE 1, CBSE 2, NBME subject exams for neurology, psychiatry, and surgery, and in-house block examinations for five different blocks accounted for 45% of variability in Step 2 score. The surgery NBME subject exams had the largest\n \u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n coefficient (\n \u03b2<\/jats:italic>\n \u2009=\u20090.212,\n P<\/jats:italic>\n < .001). This study found that neurology, psychiatry, and surgery NBME exam scores are the strongest predictors of Step 2 performance.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n In students who may be underperforming, these findings promote earlier interventions to optimize standardized test scores, which, with a well-rounded curriculum vitae, maximize chances of successful residency match.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/acamed\/wvaf085","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,14]],"date-time":"2026-02-14T14:46:40Z","timestamp":1771080400000},"page":"300-304","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1097\/lww.0000000000001000","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Predictors of USMLE Step 2 performance"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"101","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5544-5918","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mandeep","family":"Kaur","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew Y C","family":"Lin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Adnan","family":"Alseidi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"},{"name":"Department of Education, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christy K","family":"Boscardin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"},{"name":"Department of Anesthesia and Perioperative Care, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Karen E","family":"Hauer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Camilla","family":"Gomes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"wvaf085-B1-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1196","DOI":"10.1177\/0003134820973382","article-title":"Implications of the United States medical licensing examination step 1 examination transition to pass\/fail on medical students education and future career opportunities","volume":"87","author":"Ehrlich","year":"2021","journal-title":"Am Surg"},{"key":"wvaf085-B2-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"564","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjsurg.2022.10.050","article-title":"USMLE step 1 scores and PGY-5 ABSITE performance are predictive of American board of surgery examination first-time pass rates","volume":"225","author":"Suchanek","year":"2023","journal-title":"Am J Surg"},{"key":"wvaf085-B3-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"412","DOI":"10.4300\/JGME-D-19-00099.1","article-title":"USMLE step 2 CK: best predictor of multimodal performance in an internal medicine residency","volume":"11","author":"Sharma","year":"2019","journal-title":"J Grad Med Educ"},{"key":"wvaf085-B4-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e388","DOI":"10.1093\/milmed\/usab332","article-title":"Medical school clinical knowledge exam scores, not demographic or other factors, associated with residency in-training exam performance","volume":"188","author":"Patzkowski","year":"2023","journal-title":"Mil Med"},{"key":"wvaf085-B5-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"8","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jss.2019.10.048","article-title":"USMLE scores and clinical rotation role in predicting ABSITE performance among surgery interns","volume":"247","author":"Elkbuli","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Surg Res"},{"key":"wvaf085-B6-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"627","DOI":"10.1007\/s40596-014-0130-y","article-title":"US medical licensing exam scores and performance on the psychiatry resident in-training examination","volume":"38","author":"Miller","year":"2014","journal-title":"Acad Psychiatry"},{"key":"wvaf085-B7-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"722","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jamcollsurg.2021.08.674","article-title":"US medical licensing exam performance and American board of surgery qualifying and certifying examinations","volume":"233","author":"Stain","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Am Coll Surg"},{"key":"wvaf085-B8-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"943","DOI":"10.2147\/AMEP.S180786","article-title":"Predicting performance on the United States medical licensing examination step 1 and step 2 clinical knowledge using results from previous examinations","volume":"9","author":"Guiot","year":"2018","journal-title":"Adv Med Educ Pract"},{"key":"wvaf085-B9-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"385","DOI":"10.2147\/AMEP.S138557","article-title":"Predicting United States medical licensure examination step 2 clinical knowledge scores from previous academic indicators","volume":"8","author":"Monteiro","year":"2017","journal-title":"Adv Med Educ Pract"},{"key":"wvaf085-B10-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1348","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0b013e31826a13bd","article-title":"Correlation of national board of medical examiners scores with United States 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Educ"},{"key":"wvaf085-B17-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1003","DOI":"10.5435\/JAAOS-D-23-00347","article-title":"Advising orthopaedic hopefuls in the wake of a pass\/fail US medical licensing examination step 1: a proposed method for predicting US medical licensing examination step 2 clinical knowledge outcomes","volume":"31","author":"Paladino","year":"2023","journal-title":"J Am Acad Orthop Surg"},{"key":"wvaf085-B18-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"373","DOI":"10.1080\/10401334.2014.945033","article-title":"Relationship between performance on the NBME\u00ae comprehensive clinical science self-assessment and USMLE\u00ae step 2 clinical knowledge for USMGs and IMGs","volume":"26","author":"Morrison","year":"2014","journal-title":"Teach Learn Med"},{"key":"wvaf085-B19-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"125","DOI":"10.1007\/s40670-017-0518-x","article-title":"Using the NBME\u00ae comprehensive subject examinations to assess readiness for USMLE\u00ae step 1 and step 2 CK: a comparison of US\/Canadian and international medical school students","volume":"28","author":"Morrison","year":"2018","journal-title":"Med Sci Educ"},{"key":"wvaf085-B20-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S89","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0b013e3181400379","article-title":"A multilevel analysis of the relationships between examinee gender and United States medical licensing exam (USMLE) step 2 CK content area performance","volume":"82","author":"Cuddy","year":"2007","journal-title":"Acad Med"},{"key":"wvaf085-B21-20260406","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"364","DOI":"10.1097\/ACM.0000000000002366","article-title":"Examining demographics, prior academic performance, and United States medical licensing examination scores","volume":"94","author":"Rubright","year":"2019","journal-title":"Acad 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