{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T09:32:40Z","timestamp":1740130360580,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,20]],"date-time":"2023-11-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1700438400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["grant K01 AI145572"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["grant K01 AI145572"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>The capture-recapture method is a common tool used in epidemiology to estimate the size of \u201chidden\u201d populations and correct the underascertainment of cases, based on incomplete and overlapping lists of the target population. Log-linear models are often used to estimate the population size yet may produce implausible and unreliable estimates due to model misspecification and small cell sizes. A novel targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) model developed for capture-recapture makes several notable improvements to conventional modeling: \u201ctargeting\u201d the parameter of interest, flexibly fitting the data to alternative functional forms, and limiting bias from small cell sizes. Using simulations and empirical data from the San Francisco, California, Department of Public Health\u2019s human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) surveillance registry, we evaluated the performance of the TMLE model and compared results with those of other common models. Based on 2,584 people observed on 3 lists reportable to the surveillance registry, the TMLE model estimated the number of San Francisco residents living with HIV as of December 31, 2019, to be 13,523 (95% confidence interval: 12,222, 14,824). This estimate, compared with a \u201cground truth\u201d of 12,507, was the most accurate and precise of all models examined. The TMLE model is a significant advancement in capture-recapture studies, leveraging modern statistical methods to improve estimation of the sizes of hidden populations.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwad231","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,16]],"date-time":"2023-11-16T21:36:02Z","timestamp":1700170562000},"page":"673-683","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Evaluating a Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimator for Capture-Recapture Analysis: An Application to HIV Surveillance in San Francisco, California"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"193","author":[{"given":"Paul","family":"Wesson","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Manjari","family":"Das","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Mia","family":"Chen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Ling","family":"Hsu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Willi","family":"McFarland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Edward","family":"Kennedy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Nicholas P","family":"Jewell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,17]]},"reference":[{"issue":"4","key":"2024040804353232100_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"391","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwj216","article-title":"Assessing the completeness of reporting of human immunodeficiency virus diagnoses in 2002\u20132003: capture-recapture methods","volume":"164","author":"Hall","year":"2006","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"7","key":"2024040804353232100_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2248","DOI":"10.1007\/s10461-017-1883-6","article-title":"Evaluating the completeness of HIV surveillance using capture-recapture models, Alameda County, California","volume":"22","author":"Wesson","year":"2017","journal-title":"AIDS Behav."},{"issue":"10","key":"2024040804353232100_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1047","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a117559","article-title":"Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation. 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Fallibility of standard capture-recapture methods in the presence of referrals between sources","volume":"179","author":"Jones","year":"2014","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"535","key":"2024040804353232100_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1297","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2019.1708748","article-title":"Multiple systems estimation for sparse capture data: inferential challenges when there are nonoverlapping lists","volume":"116","author":"Chan","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc."},{"journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc.","article-title":"Doubly robust capture-recapture methods for estimating population size [published online ahead of print April 12, 2023]","author":"Das","key":"2024040804353232100_ref14"},{"issue":"4","key":"2024040804353232100_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"392","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009825","article-title":"Capture-recapture models including covariate effects","volume":"149","author":"Tilling","year":"1999","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024040804353232100_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"65","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kww165","article-title":"Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for causal inference in observational studies","volume":"185","author":"Schuler","year":"2017","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"key":"2024040804353232100_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4419-9782-1","volume-title":"Targeted Learning: Causal Inference for Observational and Experimental Data","author":"Laan","year":"2011"},{"year":"2021","author":"Polley","key":"2024040804353232100_ref18"},{"year":"2021","author":"Das","key":"2024040804353232100_ref19"},{"issue":"423","key":"2024040804353232100_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1137","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476387","article-title":"A three-sample multiple-recapture approach to census population estimation with heterogeneous catchability","volume":"88","author":"Darroch","year":"1993","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc."},{"year":"2014","author":"Rivest","key":"2024040804353232100_ref21"},{"year":"15, 2019","author":"Chan","key":"2024040804353232100_ref22"},{"year":"2015","author":"Johndrow","key":"2024040804353232100_ref23"},{"year":"19, 2019","author":"Fellows","key":"2024040804353232100_ref24"},{"issue":"12","key":"2024040804353232100_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1725","DOI":"10.1097\/QAD.0000000000003313","article-title":"Assessing concordance of HIV risk behaviors collected by different surveillance systems","volume":"36","author":"Panneer","year":"2022","journal-title":"AIDS."},{"issue":"4","key":"2024040804353232100_ref26","article-title":"Population size estimation methods: searching for the holy grail","volume":"6","author":"Neal","year":"2020","journal-title":"JMIR Public Heal Surveill."}],"container-title":["American Journal of Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/aje\/kwad231\/56807516\/kwad231.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article-pdf\/193\/4\/673\/57162602\/kwad231.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article-pdf\/193\/4\/673\/57162602\/kwad231.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,8]],"date-time":"2024-04-08T04:35:57Z","timestamp":1712550957000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article\/193\/4\/673\/7425624"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,17]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,17]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,8]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/aje\/kwad231","relation":{},"ISSN":["0002-9262","1476-6256"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0002-9262"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1476-6256"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024,4]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,17]]}}}