{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,26]],"date-time":"2025-04-26T00:40:08Z","timestamp":1745628008669,"version":"3.40.4"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,29]],"date-time":"2024-04-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714348800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":3,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DP2LM013340","R01HL137808","T32ES015459"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DP2LM013340","R01HL137808","T32ES015459"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000001","name":"National Science Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["DGE-1762114"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["DGE-1762114"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000001","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Individualizing treatment assignment can improve outcomes for diseases with patient-to-patient variability in comparative treatment effects. When a clinical trial demonstrates that some patients improve on treatment while others do not, it is tempting to assume that treatment effect heterogeneity exists. However, if outcome variability is mainly driven by factors other than variability in the treatment effect, investigating the extent to which covariate data can predict differential treatment response is a potential waste of resources. Motivated by recent meta-analyses assessing the potential of individualizing treatment for major depressive disorder using only summary statistics, we provide a method that uses summary statistics widely available in published clinical trial results to bound the benefit of optimally assigning treatment to each patient. We also offer alternate bounds for settings in which trial results are stratified by another covariate. Our upper bounds can be especially informative when they are small, as there is then little benefit to collecting additional covariate data. We demonstrate our approach using summary statistics from a depression treatment trial. Our methods are implemented in the rct2otrbounds R package.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwae040","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,29]],"date-time":"2024-04-29T01:08:35Z","timestamp":1714352915000},"page":"1161-1167","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Can the potential benefit of individualizing treatment be assessed using trial summary statistics alone?"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"193","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2185-1344","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nina","family":"Galanter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics , School of Public Health, , Seattle, WA 98195 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"University of Washington , School of Public Health, , Seattle, WA 98195 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2106-0953","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marco","family":"Carone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics , School of Public Health, , Seattle, WA 98195 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"University of Washington , School of Public Health, , Seattle, WA 98195 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4831-2305","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ronald C","family":"Kessler","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School , Boston, MA 02115 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9936-3236","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alex","family":"Luedtke","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, University of Washington , Seattle, WA 98195 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]]},"reference":[{"issue":"12","key":"2025042520014450300_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1445","DOI":"10.1176\/appi.ajp.2010.09111680","article-title":"Personalized medicine for depression: can we match patients with treatments?","volume":"167","author":"Simon","year":"2010","journal-title":"Am J Psychiatry."},{"issue":"7","key":"2025042520014450300_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1118","DOI":"10.1017\/S0033291718001708","article-title":"Personalized prediction of antidepressant v. placebo response: evidence from the EMBARC study","volume":"49","author":"Webb","year":"2019","journal-title":"Psychol Med."},{"issue":"499","key":"2025042520014450300_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1106","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2012.695674","article-title":"Estimating individualized treatment rules using outcome weighted learning","volume":"107","author":"Zhao","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc."},{"key":"2025042520014450300_ref4","first-page":"1","article-title":"An individualized treatment rule to optimize probability of remission by continuation, switching, or combining antidepressant medications after failing a first-line antidepressant in a two-stage randomized trial","author":"Kessler","year":"2021","journal-title":"Psychol Med."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042520014450300_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0083875","article-title":"The personalized advantage index: translating research on prediction into individualized treatment recommendations: a demonstration","volume":"9","author":"DeRubeis","year":"2014","journal-title":"PloS One."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025042520014450300_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1063","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2019.1530","article-title":"Evaluation of differences in individual treatment response in schizophrenia spectrum disorders: a meta-analysis","volume":"76","author":"Winkelbeiner","year":"2019","journal-title":"JAMA Psychiatry."},{"issue":"6","key":"2025042520014450300_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"607","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2019.4815","article-title":"Individual differences in response to antidepressants: a meta-analysis of placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials","volume":"77","author":"Maslej","year":"2020","journal-title":"JAMA Psychiatry."},{"issue":"8","key":"2025042520014450300_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0237950","article-title":"Individual response to antidepressants for depression in adults-a meta-analysis and simulation study","volume":"15","author":"Munkholm","year":"2020","journal-title":"PloS One."},{"issue":"12","key":"2025042520014450300_ref9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2019-034816","article-title":"What are the chances for personalised treatment with antidepressants? Detection of patient-by-treatment interaction with a variance ratio meta-analysis","volume":"9","author":"Pl\u00f6derl","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ Open."},{"issue":"11","key":"2025042520014450300_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0241497","article-title":"On the treatment effect heterogeneity of antidepressants in major depression: a Bayesian meta-analysis and simulation study","volume":"15","author":"Volkmann","year":"2020","journal-title":"PloS One."},{"key":"2025042520014450300_ref11","article-title":"On the relationship between treatment effect heterogeneity and the variability ratio effect size statistic","author":"Volkmann","year":"2020","journal-title":"arXiv"},{"issue":"6","key":"2025042520014450300_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1571","DOI":"10.1377\/hlthaff.24.6.1571","article-title":"Reporting clinical trial results to inform providers, payers, and consumers","volume":"24","author":"Hayward","year":"2005","journal-title":"Health Aff."},{"year":"2022","author":"Galanter","key":"2025042520014450300_ref13"},{"key":"2025042520014450300_ref14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.spl.2021.109323","article-title":"Sharp lower and upper bounds for the covariance of bounded random variables","volume":"182","author":"H\u00f6ssjer","year":"2022","journal-title":"Stat Probabil Lett."},{"key":"2025042520014450300_ref15","first-page":":46","volume-title":"Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence Proceedings of the Tenth Conference","author":"Balke","year":"1994"},{"key":"2025042520014450300_ref16","article-title":"An automated approach to causal inference in discrete settings","author":"Duarte","year":"2021","journal-title":"arXiv"},{"year":"2020","author":"Berkelaar","key":"2025042520014450300_ref17"},{"volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","year":"2021","author":"R Core Team","key":"2025042520014450300_ref18"},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042520014450300_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"140","DOI":"10.1038\/s41386-018-0156-z","article-title":"Sex differences in antidepressant efficacy","volume":"44","author":"LeGates","year":"2019","journal-title":"Neuropsychopharmacology."},{"issue":"6","key":"2025042520014450300_ref20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"427","DOI":"10.1080\/15622975.2019.1635270","article-title":"Results of the European Group for the Study of Resistant Depression (GSRD)\u2014basis for further research and clinical practice","volume":"20","author":"Bartova","year":"2019","journal-title":"World J Biol Psychiatry."},{"issue":"3","key":"2025042520014450300_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"319","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00933815","article-title":"The continuity of the optimum in parametric programming and applications to stochastic programming","volume":"18","author":"Bereanu","year":"1976","journal-title":"Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042520014450300_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"747","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-psych-010418-102803","article-title":"How to do a systematic review: a best practice guide for conducting and reporting narrative reviews, meta-analyses, and meta-syntheses","volume":"70","author":"Siddaway","year":"2019","journal-title":"Annu Rev Psychol."},{"key":"2025042520014450300_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"241","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119536604.ch10","article-title":"Analysing data and undertaking meta-analyses","author":"Deeks","year":"2019","journal-title":"Cochrane Handbook Syst Rev Interventions."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042520014450300_ref24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"305","DOI":"10.1515\/ijb-2015-0052","article-title":"Super-learning of an optimal dynamic treatment rule","volume":"12","author":"Luedtke","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int J Biostat."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025042520014450300_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"83","DOI":"10.1017\/S0963180121000839","article-title":"On algorithmic fairness in medical practice","volume":"31","author":"Grote","year":"2022","journal-title":"Camb Q Healthc Ethics."},{"volume-title":"Proceedings of the Machine Learning: the Debates Workshop","year":"2018","author":"Green","key":"2025042520014450300_ref26"}],"container-title":["American Journal of Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/aje\/kwae040\/58437684\/kwae040.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article-pdf\/193\/8\/1161\/58718802\/kwae040.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article-pdf\/193\/8\/1161\/58718802\/kwae040.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,4,26]],"date-time":"2025-04-26T00:01:55Z","timestamp":1745625715000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article\/193\/8\/1161\/7658882"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,5]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/aje\/kwae040","relation":{},"ISSN":["0002-9262","1476-6256"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0002-9262"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1476-6256"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,26]]}}}