{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,2]],"date-time":"2025-12-02T23:16:57Z","timestamp":1764717417941,"version":"3.46.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]],"date-time":"2025-01-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1737331200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/journals\/pages\/open_access\/funder_policies\/chorus\/standard_publication_model"}],"funder":[{"name":"Wellcome Trust Early Career Award","award":["225001\/Z\/22\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["225001\/Z\/22\/Z"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["106866\/Z\/15\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["106866\/Z\/15\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1094793"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1094793"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Estimating the durability of immunity from vaccination is complicated by unreported revaccination and unobserved natural infection or reexposure, which could result in overestimation of protection longevity. We tested serial, cross-sectional serum samples from 2005 to 2015 (n\u00a0=\u00a02530) for immunoglobulin G (IgG) to examine measles seroprevalence, spatiotemporal patterns of titers across regions, and antibody dynamics among children aged 1-9\u00a0years who grew up during varying measles circulation in Madagascar under a 1-dose vaccination schedule. We found that measles seroprevalence generally decreased over this period. Furthermore, we conducted 2 nested serological surveys, analyzing 393 samples taken in 2005 (n\u00a0=\u00a0158), a time point preceded by high levels of measles circulation, and 2015 (n\u00a0=\u00a0235), a time point preceded by low levels of measles circulation. Among children alive during periods of limited measles circulation, we found lower measles seroprevalence in all age groups and lower antibody titers in children aged 7-9\u00a0years old. Notably, titers among children aged 7-9 dipped near the threshold of protection, highlighting the importance of additional measles vaccine doses. Our findings suggest vulnerabilities might emerge during periods of limited measles circulation for countries with a 1-dose schedule, due to both the buildup of susceptible individuals and waning titers.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwaf005","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,9]],"date-time":"2025-01-09T23:20:43Z","timestamp":1736464843000},"page":"3416-3423","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Revealing trends in measles immunity during periods of varying measles circulation in Madagascar"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"194","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0195-4071","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Arthur","family":"Menezes","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"James A","family":"Hay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7LF ,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Pandemic Sciences Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford , Oxford OX3 7DQ ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Richter","family":"Razafindratsimandresy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar , Antananarivo 101 ,","place":["Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andriamasina Herivelo","family":"Randriamanantena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar , Antananarivo 101 ,","place":["Madagascar"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Luojun","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jean-Michel","family":"H\u00e9raud","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar , Antananarivo 101 ,","place":["Madagascar"]},{"name":"Global Influenza Programme, World Health Organization , 1211 Geneva 27, Geneva ,","place":["Switzerland"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Cauchemez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Universit\u00e9 Paris Cit\u00e9 , UMR 2000, CNRS, 75015 Paris Cedex 15 ,","place":["France"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amy","family":"Wesolowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Baltimore, MD 21205 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Bryan","family":"Grenfell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrea L","family":"Graham","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"Santa Fe Institute , Santa Fe, NM 87501 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"C Jessica E","family":"Metcalf","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540 ,","place":["United States"]},{"name":"Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08540 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]]},"reference":[{"author":"World Health Organization (WHO)","key":"2025120218123742300_ref1"},{"issue":"6","key":"2025120218123742300_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"343","DOI":"10.1016\/S1341-321X(06)70892-3","article-title":"Current status of measles in Japan: molecular and seroepidemiological studies","volume":"12","author":"Okafuji","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Infect Chemother."},{"issue":"433","key":"2025120218123742300_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/scitranslmed.aao5945","article-title":"Vaccine waning and mumps re-emergence in the United States","volume":"10","author":"Lewnard","year":"2018","journal-title":"Sci Transl Med."},{"issue":"7","key":"2025120218123742300_ref4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"912","DOI":"10.1038\/s41390-019-0354-3","article-title":"America and Europe\u2019s new normal: the return of vaccine-preventable diseases","volume":"85","author":"Hotez","year":"2019","journal-title":"Pediatr Res."},{"key":"2025120218123742300_ref5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coviro.2020.05.009","article-title":"Waning immunity and re-emergence of measles and mumps in the vaccine era","volume":"40","author":"Yang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Curr Opin Virol."},{"issue":"8","key":"2025120218123742300_ref6","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0072086","article-title":"Immune boosting explains regime-shifts in prevaccine-era pertussis dynamics","volume":"8","author":"Lavine","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One."},{"issue":"17","key":"2025120218123742300_ref7","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7259","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.1014394108","article-title":"Natural immune boosting in pertussis dynamics and the potential for long-term vaccine failure","volume":"108","author":"Lavine","year":"2011","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A."},{"key":"2025120218123742300_ref8","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1016\/j.coviro.2019.01.002","article-title":"Successes and challenges for preventing measles, mumps and rubella by vaccination","volume":"34","author":"Bankamp","year":"2019","journal-title":"Curr Opin Virol."},{"volume-title":"Measles","year":"2019","author":"World Health Organization","key":"2025120218123742300_ref9"},{"issue":"47","key":"2025120218123742300_ref10","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1489","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7147a1","article-title":"Progress toward regional measles elimination - worldwide, 2000-2021","volume":"71","author":"Minta","year":"2022","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep."},{"issue":"4","key":"2025120218123742300_ref11","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"434","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.77.4.434","article-title":"Measles outbreak in a vaccinated school population: epidemiology, chains of transmission and the role of vaccine failures","volume":"77","author":"Nkowane","year":"1987","journal-title":"Am J Public Health."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025120218123742300_ref12","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"173","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a115106","article-title":"An explosive point-source measles outbreak in a highly vaccinated population. Modes of transmission and risk factors for disease","volume":"129","author":"Chen","year":"1989","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"18","key":"2025120218123742300_ref13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2467","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.1990.03440180073035","article-title":"Mild measles and secondary vaccine failure during a sustained outbreak in a highly vaccinated population","volume":"263","author":"Edmonson","year":"1990","journal-title":"JAMA."},{"issue":"6","key":"2025120218123742300_ref14","first-page":"153","article-title":"Measles outbreak--California, December 2014-February 2015","volume":"64","author":"Zipprich","year":"2015","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep."},{"issue":"12","key":"2025120218123742300_ref15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1980","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiw480","article-title":"Measles outbreak among previously immunized healthcare workers, the Netherlands, 2014","volume":"214","author":"Hahn\u00e9","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Infect Dis."},{"issue":"15","key":"2025120218123742300_ref16","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1853","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2015.11.006","article-title":"A measles outbreak in a middle school with high vaccination coverage and evidence of prior immunity among cases, Beijing, P.R. China","volume":"34","author":"Ma","year":"2016","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"issue":"11","key":"2025120218123742300_ref17","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1238","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a009951","article-title":"Modeling the impact of subclinical measles transmission in vaccinated populations with waning immunity","volume":"150","author":"Mossong","year":"1999","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"19","key":"2025120218123742300_ref18","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1903","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa066092","article-title":"Duration of humoral immunity to common viral and vaccine antigens","volume":"357","author":"Amanna","year":"2007","journal-title":"N Engl J Med."},{"issue":"8","key":"2025120218123742300_ref19","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pbio.2006601","article-title":"Heterogeneity and longevity of antibody memory to viruses and vaccines","volume":"16","author":"Antia","year":"2018","journal-title":"PLoS Biol."},{"issue":"4","key":"2025120218123742300_ref20","first-page":"415","article-title":"Duration of immunity following immunization with live measles vaccine: 15 years of observation in Zhejiang Province, China","volume":"69","author":"Dai","year":"1991","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ."},{"issue":"17-19","key":"2025120218123742300_ref21","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2434","DOI":"10.1016\/S0264-410X(00)00468-0","article-title":"Twin studies of immunogenicity--determining the genetic contribution to vaccine failure","volume":"19","author":"Tan","year":"2001","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025120218123742300_ref22","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"47","DOI":"10.2174\/1389202916666141223220551","article-title":"Genetics and vaccines in the era of personalized medicine","volume":"16","author":"Castiblanco","year":"2015","journal-title":"Curr Genomics."},{"issue":"2","key":"2025120218123742300_ref23","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"129","DOI":"10.1016\/0264-410X(94)90049-3","article-title":"Measles antibody: comparison of long-term vaccination titres, early vaccination titres and naturally acquired immunity to and booster effects on the measles virus","volume":"12","author":"Christenson","year":"1994","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"issue":"5","key":"2025120218123742300_ref24","first-page":"135","article-title":"Measles virus haemagglutination-inhibition antibodies among pregnant and non-pregnant women in the vaccine era in Harare, Zimbabwe","volume":"42","author":"Obi","year":"1996","journal-title":"Cent Afr J Med."},{"issue":"6","key":"2025120218123742300_ref25","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"716","DOI":"10.1016\/S0035-9203(97)90538-1","article-title":"Response to measles revaccination among Bolivian school-aged children","volume":"91","author":"Bartoloni","year":"1997","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg."},{"issue":"2","key":"2025120218123742300_ref26","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"161","DOI":"10.1023\/a:1023038705835","article-title":"Fully vaccinated children are rare: immunization coverage and seroprevalence in Austrian school children","volume":"18","author":"Ringler","year":"2003","journal-title":"Eur J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"3","key":"2025120218123742300_ref27","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/vaccines7030118","article-title":"A survey of vaccine-induced measles IgG antibody titer to Verify temporal changes in response to measles vaccination in young adults","volume":"7","author":"Sasaki","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"2025120218123742300_ref28","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ofid\/ofad500.989","article-title":"Long-term neutralizing antibody levels against measles and rubella viruses among adults with three doses of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine","volume":"10","author":"Alonge","year":"2024","journal-title":"Open Forum Infect Dis."},{"issue":"20","key":"2025120218123742300_ref29","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2052","DOI":"10.1016\/S0264-410X(98)00081-4","article-title":"Vaccine-induced measles virus antibodies after two doses of combined measles, mumps and rubella vaccine: a 12-year follow-up in two cohorts","volume":"16","author":"Davidkin","year":"1998","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"author":"World Health Organization","key":"2025120218123742300_ref30"},{"volume-title":"WHO Immunization Data Portal","author":"World Health Organization","key":"2025120218123742300_ref31"},{"key":"2025120218123742300_ref32","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"84","DOI":"10.11604\/pamj.2020.35.84.19630","article-title":"Measles outbreak in 2018-2019, Madagascar: epidemiology and public health implications","volume":"35","author":"Nimpa","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pan Afr Med J."},{"issue":"45","key":"2025120218123742300_ref33","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1700","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm6945a6","article-title":"Progress toward regional measles elimination - worldwide, 2000-2019","volume":"69","author":"Patel","year":"2020","journal-title":"MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025120218123742300_ref34","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2020-003153","article-title":"Towards better targeting: lessons from a posthoneymoon measles outbreak in Madagascar, 2018-2019","volume":"5","author":"Raherindrasana","year":"2020","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025120218123742300_ref35","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2219","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwy114","article-title":"Revealing measles outbreak risk with a nested immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar","volume":"187","author":"Winter","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol."},{"issue":"3","key":"2025120218123742300_ref36","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.heliyon.2018.e00563","article-title":"Assessment of poliovirus antibody seroprevalence in high risk areas for vaccine derived poliovirus transmission in Madagascar","volume":"4","author":"Razafindratsimandresy","year":"2018","journal-title":"Heliyon."},{"key":"2025120218123742300_ref37","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268820002800","article-title":"Seroprevalence of pertussis in Madagascar and implications for vaccination","volume":"148","author":"Razafimahatratra","year":"2020","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"key":"2025120218123742300_ref38","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"e39","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268822000097","article-title":"Leveraging serology to titrate immunisation programme functionality for diphtheria in Madagascar","volume":"150","author":"Razafimahatratra","year":"2022","journal-title":"J Hygiene."},{"issue":"2","key":"2025120218123742300_ref39","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"209","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jviromet.2005.08.001","article-title":"Measles immunity testing: comparison of two measles IgG ELISAs with plaque reduction neutralisation assay","volume":"131","author":"Cohen","year":"2006","journal-title":"J Virol Methods."},{"issue":"516","key":"2025120218123742300_ref40","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1548","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2016.1180986","article-title":"Smoothing parameter and model selection for general smooth models","volume":"111","author":"Wood","year":"2016","journal-title":"J Am Stat Assoc."},{"volume-title":"Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)","year":"4, 2025","author":"Wood","key":"2025120218123742300_ref41"},{"author":"Institut National de la Statistique","key":"2025120218123742300_ref42"},{"issue":"10","key":"2025120218123742300_ref43","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001110","article-title":"Measuring the performance of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys: a likelihood framework and retrospective analysis","volume":"8","author":"Lessler","year":"2011","journal-title":"PLoS Med."},{"issue":"18","key":"2025120218123742300_ref44","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2511","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2019.02.069","article-title":"Seasonal gaps in measles vaccination coverage in Madagascar","volume":"37","author":"Mensah","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"issue":"1","key":"2025120218123742300_ref45","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"11","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268803001584","article-title":"Seroprevalence of measles, mumps and rubella antibodies in Luxembourg: results from a national cross-sectional study","volume":"132","author":"Mossong","year":"2004","journal-title":"Epidemiol Infect."},{"issue":"2","key":"2025120218123742300_ref46","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"175","DOI":"10.1080\/02724939992509","article-title":"Serum levels of measles IgG antibody activity in children under 5 years in Dar-es-salaam, Tanzania","volume":"19","author":"Lyamuya","year":"1999","journal-title":"Ann Trop Paediatr."},{"issue":"13","key":"2025120218123742300_ref47","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1775","DOI":"10.1016\/j.vaccine.2019.02.030","article-title":"Differential durability of immune responses to measles and mumps following MMR vaccination","volume":"37","author":"Kennedy","year":"2019","journal-title":"Vaccine."},{"issue":"10","key":"2025120218123742300_ref48","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v8100282","article-title":"The immune response in measles: virus control, clearance and protective immunity","volume":"8","author":"Griffin","year":"2016","journal-title":"Viruses."},{"issue":"3","key":"2025120218123742300_ref49","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"203","DOI":"10.1097\/00006454-199503000-00007","article-title":"Serologic status and measles attack rates among vaccinated and unvaccinated children in rural Senegal","volume":"14","author":"Samb","year":"1995","journal-title":"Pediatr Infect Dis J."}],"container-title":["American Journal of Epidemiology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/aje\/kwaf005\/61518324\/kwaf005.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article-pdf\/194\/12\/3416\/61518324\/kwaf005.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article-pdf\/194\/12\/3416\/61518324\/kwaf005.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,2]],"date-time":"2025-12-02T23:12:46Z","timestamp":1764717166000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/aje\/article\/194\/12\/3416\/7964519"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"12","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,12,2]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/aje\/kwaf005","relation":{},"ISSN":["0002-9262","1476-6256"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0002-9262"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1476-6256"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,12]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,20]]}}}