{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,26]],"date-time":"2026-06-26T05:45:43Z","timestamp":1782452743340,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,2]],"date-time":"2026-06-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780358400000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000272","name":"National Institute for Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000272","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"US Alzheimer\u2019s Association","award":["24HPE-1287320"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24HPE-1287320"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000781","name":"European Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ERC-2013-ADG 340755"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ERC-2013-ADG 340755"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000781","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004423","name":"World Health Organization","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["ALZSI-25-1464205"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["ALZSI-25-1464205"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004423","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004423","name":"World Health Organization","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["24HPE-1287320"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["24HPE-1287320"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004423","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004423","name":"World Health Organization","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["IIRG-04-1286"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["IIRG-04-1286"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004423","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme","award":["GR080002"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GR080002"]}]},{"name":"Wellcome Trust Health Consequences of Population Change Programme","award":["GR066133"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["GR066133"]}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Most people with dementia live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), underscoring the need for LMIC-specific identification of high-risk individuals. This study aimed to develop and validate a simple dementia risk prediction model for these settings. Data from 7 10\/66 Study sites were analyzed. Over 100 candidate predictors were screened based on existing models and the 2024 Lancet Commission, including LMIC-specific variables (eg, food insecurity and household assets). Predictors were selected using LASSO and modelled with the Fine\u2013Gray method to generate a risk score. Predictive accuracy was pooled via meta-analysis. Eleven thousand one hundred forty-three participants were included, among whom 1069 (9.6%) developed dementia during follow-up. A 5-factor risk score comprising age, social engagement, physical activity, hypertension, and difficulty in handling money was developed. The pooled c-statistic was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78), with good calibration across sites. Decision curve analysis showed a modest net benefit, with variation across countries. It is possible to predict incident dementia with reasonable accuracy using a simple model across different LMICs. Our findings support the use of context-specific risk assessment tools to identify individuals at elevated dementia risk in LMIC settings, which may inform resource allocation for dementia care services and public health planning.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwag116","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,28]],"date-time":"2026-05-28T11:44:12Z","timestamp":1779968652000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Development and validation of a dementia risk prediction model for low- and middle-income countries: the 10\/66 study"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0058-1808","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eduwin","family":"Pakpahan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Applied Statistics & Data Science Research Group, School of Engineering, Physics, and Mathematics, Northumbria University , College Street, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0737-3929","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Zhongyang","family":"Guan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University , Kent St, Bentley, Western Australia 6102 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Dementia Centre of Excellence, Curtin EnAble Institute, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University , Kent St, Bentley, Western Australia 6102 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mario","family":"Siervo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Population Health, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University , Kent St, Bentley, Western Australia 6102 ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Dementia Centre of Excellence, Curtin EnAble Institute, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University , Kent St, Bentley, Western Australia 6102 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Graciela","family":"Muniz-Terrera","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Heritage College of Osteopathic Medicine, Ohio University , 191 W Union St, Athens, OH 45701 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Devi","family":"Mohan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, The University of Queensland, Brisbane , 266 Herston Rd, Herston 4006, Queensland ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daisy","family":"Acosta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Internal Medicine Department, Geriatric Section, Universidad Nacional Pedro Henr\u00edquez Ure\u00f1a (UNPHU) , 1\/2, Av. John F. Kennedy 7, Santo Domingo 10203 ,","place":["Dominican Republic"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ana Luisa","family":"Sosa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of the Dementias, Instituto Nacional de Neurologia y Neurocirugia \u201cManuel Velasco Suarez\u201d , Av. Insurgentes Sur 3877, La Fama, Tlalpan, 14269 Ciudad de M\u00e9xico, CDMX ,","place":["Mexico"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isaac","family":"Acosta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of the Dementias, National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery , Av. Insurgentes Sur 3877, La Fama, Tlalpan, 14269 Ciudad de M\u00e9xico ,","place":["Mexico"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Juan J","family":"Llibre-Rodriguez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dementia Research Unit, Medical University of Havana , Ave 31 y 146. Cubanacan, CP 10600 Playa ,","place":["Cuba"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2137-7750","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jorge J","family":"Llibre-Guerra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurology, Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis , 660 S. Euclid Ave., St. Louis, MO 63110-1010 ,","place":["United States"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"Prince","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences and Medicine, King\u2019s College London , Strand, London WC2R 2LS ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Alice","family":"Worrall","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute of Mental Health, University of Nottingham, Innovation Park, Triumph Road , Nottingham NG7 2TU ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aliya","family":"Naheed","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Non Communicable Diseases, Nutrition Research Division, icddr,b , 68, Shaheed Tajuddin Ahmed Sarani, Mohakhali, Dhaka 1212 ,","place":["Bangladesh"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ashleigh S","family":"Vella","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales , Cnr High St & Botany St, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, New South Wales 2033 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiyang","family":"Jiang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales , Cnr High St & Botany St, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, New South Wales 2033 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1684-3577","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Darren M","family":"Lipnicki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales , Cnr High St & Botany St, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, New South Wales 2033 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9595-3220","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Perminder S","family":"Sachdev","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Healthy Brain Ageing (CHeBA), Discipline of Psychiatry and Mental Health, School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales , Cnr High St & Botany St, UNSW Sydney, Kensington, New South Wales 2033 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Louise","family":"Robinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Campus for Ageing and Vitality , Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 5PL ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Matthew","family":"Prina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Population Health Sciences Institute, Faculty of Medical Sciences, Newcastle University, Campus for Ageing and Vitality , Newcastle upon Tyne NE4 5PL ,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Blossom C M","family":"Stephan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dementia Centre of Excellence, Curtin EnAble Institute, Faculty of Health Science, Curtin University , Kent St, Bentley, Western Australia 6102 ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,2]]},"reference":[{"issue":"2","key":"2026062600465313600_ref1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e105","DOI":"10.1016\/S2468-2667(21)00249-8","article-title":"Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019","volume":"7","author":"GBD 2019 Dementia Forecasting Collaborators","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet Public Health"},{"issue":"4","key":"2026062600465313600_ref2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"7","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh-2021-007409","article-title":"The economic burden of dementia in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs): a systematic review","volume":"7","author":"Mattap","year":"2022","journal-title":"BMJ Glob Health"},{"issue":"1","key":"2026062600465313600_ref3","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"49","DOI":"10.1159\/000539744","article-title":"What\u2019s new in dementia risk prediction modelling? 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