{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]],"date-time":"2026-09-03T02:13:15Z","timestamp":1788401595324,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,17]],"date-time":"2026-06-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781654400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>For infectious diseases where people can experience multiple infections during their lifetime, the time between observed infections in individuals (or \u201ctime to recurrence\u201d) can provide valuable information on infection and transmission dynamics. Routinely collected data, such as electronic health records, are a potential source of time to recurrence data. However, they are challenging to analyse because patients can drop out of the data set in a way that is not visible to the data collection process. Standard epidemiological approaches, such as parametric survival analysis with imputation, cannot be applied to such data. In this study, we explored the feasibility of interrogating routinely collected time to recurrence data by calibrating mechanistic transmission models with explicit dropout mechanisms. We identified model structures and parameter regimes where the method could precisely and accurately estimate important epidemiological quantities. Application of our method to real data of malaria infections routinely collected in Papua, Indonesia, was able to estimate the forces of infection for different malaria species, the rate of dropout and recrudescence for Plasmodium falciparum, and the probability of treatment success. Our method has the potential to increase the value of existing and new data sets for informing public health research.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwag138","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,16]],"date-time":"2026-06-16T12:23:30Z","timestamp":1781612610000},"page":"2458-2468","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Identifiability and model misspecification for modelling recurrent infections using routine health care data"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"195","author":[{"given":"Ada W C","family":"Yan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, La Trobe University , Melbourne, Australia"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London , United Kingdom"},{"name":"Department of Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University , Melbourne, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jennifer A","family":"Flegg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeanne Rini","family":"Poespoprodjo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Yayasan Pengembangan Kesehatan Dan Masyarakat Papua (YPKMP) , Timika, Indonesia"},{"name":"Mimika General Hospital, Timika , Indonesia"},{"name":"Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University , Darwin, Australia"},{"name":"Centre for Child Health-pro, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing Universitas Gadjah Mada , Yogyakarta, Indonesia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas M","family":"Douglas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University , Darwin, Australia"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Otago, Christchurch , New Zealand"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, Christchurch Hospital , Te Whatu Ora, Christchurch, New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ric N","family":"Price","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University , Darwin, Australia"},{"name":"Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford , Oxford, United Kingdom"},{"name":"Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University , Bangkok, Thailand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angela","family":"Devine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University , Darwin, Australia"},{"name":"Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne , Melbourne, Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David 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