{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,29]],"date-time":"2026-09-29T16:20:16Z","timestamp":1790698816563,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":46,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"10","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,6,6]],"date-time":"2018-06-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1528243200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1094793"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1094793"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["106866\/Z\/15\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["106866\/Z\/15\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,10,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Madagascar reports few measles cases annually and high vaccination campaign coverage. However, the underlying age profile of immunity and risk of a measles outbreak is unknown. We conducted a nested serological survey, testing 1,005 serum samples (collected between November 2013 and December 2015 via Madagascar\u2019s febrile rash surveillance system) for measles immunoglobulin G antibody titers. We directly estimated the age profile of immunity and compared these estimates with indirect estimates based on a birth cohort model of vaccination coverage and natural infection. Combining these estimates of the age profile of immunity in the population with an age-structured model of transmission, we further predicted the risk of a measles outbreak and the impact of mitigation strategies designed around supplementary immunization activities. The direct and indirect estimates of age-specific seroprevalence show that current measles susceptibility is over 10%, and modeling suggests that Madagascar may be at risk of a major measles epidemic.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwy114","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,5,31]],"date-time":"2018-05-31T19:44:26Z","timestamp":1527795866000},"page":"2219-2226","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":31,"title":["Revealing Measles Outbreak Risk With a Nested Immunoglobulin G Serosurvey in Madagascar"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"187","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2737-7003","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Amy K","family":"Winter","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amy P","family":"Wesolowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Keitly J","family":"Mensah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Miora Bruna","family":"Ramamonjiharisoa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrianmasina Herivelo","family":"Randriamanantena","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Richter","family":"Razafindratsimandresy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Virology Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, 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