{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,1]],"date-time":"2026-10-01T10:01:34Z","timestamp":1790848894584,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":44,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787788800000},"content-version":"am","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Alliance for Collaboration on Climate and Earth Systems Science"},{"name":"Grains-SA"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Future wheat-growing environments are expected to be warmer, drier and characterized by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2). Although drought and elevated temperature generally reduce yield, eCO2 can partly offset these effects, although responses vary among genotypes. The identification of genotypes suited to future climates is therefore crucial, yet large-scale screening under eCO2 remains constrained by the high cost and availability of specialized facilities. An alternative approach is to determine whether genotype performance in ambient conditions can predict responses in combined future climate conditions. However, the robustness of such predictive relationships under interacting environmental drivers remains unclear.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Nineteen wheat genotypes were grown outdoors under ambient CO2 and temperature and in open-top chambers under eCO2, where chamber conditions also produced passive daytime warming and reduced relative humidity. Plants were either well watered or droughted, and the biomass, grain yield and days to maturity (DTM) were measured. Because open-top chambers impose a combined microclimatic shift, the chamber treatment represents an integrated eCO2 and warming environment rather than an independent manipulation of these drivers. Scaling relationships were used to test whether responses in ambient conditions predicted performance in these combined conditions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Key Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Genotypes differed significantly for all traits. Drought reduced biomass and yield and increased DTM across environments. The combined chamber environment altered biomass, yield and development, with strong predictive relationships observed for biomass and DTM but weaker for yield. Predictive strength improved when comparisons were made in matched water treatments and was strongest when temperature conditions were aligned between environments.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Although genotype rankings were partly conserved across environments, these patterns were strongly trait dependent, indicating that predictive relationships are context specific. Low-cost experimental approaches that approximate combined future conditions might therefore provide an effective first step for genotype prescreening prior to targeted validation in fully controlled climate manipulations.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/aob\/mcag274","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]],"date-time":"2026-08-27T14:05:12Z","timestamp":1787839512000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Ambient-condition performance provides trait-dependent prediction of wheat genotype responses under elevated CO2 and chamber-associated warming"],"prefix":"10.1093","author":[{"given":"B S","family":"Ripley","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Botany, Rhodes University , Makhanda 6140 ,","place":["South Africa"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6077-6623","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"E J","family":"Singini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Botany, Rhodes University , Makhanda 6140 ,","place":["South Africa"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"P","family":"Mavindidza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agronomy, University of Fort Hare , Dikeni 5700 ,","place":["South Africa"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C S","family":"Mutengwa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Agronomy, University of Fort Hare , Dikeni 5700 ,","place":["South Africa"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026100105410634200_mcag274-B1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"351","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1469-8137.2004.01224.x","article-title":"What have we learned from 15 years of free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? 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