{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,24]],"date-time":"2026-08-24T14:54:56Z","timestamp":1787583296471,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":35,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]],"date-time":"2024-06-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1719014400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>In practice, it is common for collected data to be underreported, an issue that is particularly prevalent in fields such as the social sciences, ecology and epidemiology. Drawing inferences from such data using conventional statistical methods can lead to incorrect conclusions. In this paper, we study tests for serial or cross dependence in time series data that are subject to underreporting. We introduce new test statistics, develop corresponding group-of-blocks bootstrap techniques and establish their consistency. The methods are shown via simulation studies to be efficient and are used to identify key factors responsible for the spread of dengue fever and the occurrence of cardiovascular disease.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/asae027","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]],"date-time":"2024-06-22T21:04:47Z","timestamp":1719090287000},"page":"1293-1312","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Testing serial dependence or cross dependence for time series with underreporting"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"111","author":[{"given":"Keyao","family":"Wei","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science, National University of Singapore , Block S16, Level 7, 6 Science Drive 2 , 117546","place":["Singapore"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lengyang","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Centre for Infectious Diseases , 16 Jln Tan Tock Seng , 308442","place":["Singapore"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yingcun","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics and Data Science, National University of Singapore , Block S16, Level 7, 6 Science Drive 2 , 117546","place":["Singapore"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1854","DOI":"10.1253\/circj.CJ-12-0916","article-title":"Relationship between cold temperature and cardiovascular mortality, with assessment of effect modification by individual characteristics: Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study","volume":"77","author":"Atsumi","year":"2013","journal-title":"Circulation J"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annepidem.2004.09.013","article-title":"Modeling of under-detection of cases in disease surveillance","volume":"15","author":"Bailey","year":"2005","journal-title":"Ann. Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"576","DOI":"10.1038\/nmat3627","article-title":"Nano-analytical electron microscopy reveals fundamental insights into human cardiovascular tissue calcification","volume":"12","author":"Bertazzo","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature Materials"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"504","DOI":"10.1038\/nature12060","article-title":"The global distribution and burden of dengue","volume":"496","author":"Bhatt","year":"2013","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"415","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph19010415","article-title":"Application of the ARIMA model to predict under-reporting of new cases of Hansen\u2019s disease during the COVID-19 pandemic in a municipality of the Amazon region","volume":"19","author":"da Cunha","year":"2021","journal-title":"Int. J. Envir. Res. Public Health"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1013","DOI":"10.3150\/17-BEJ1011","article-title":"Towards a general theory for nonlinear locally stationary processes","volume":"25","author":"Dahlhaus","year":"2019","journal-title":"Bernoulli"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B7","article-title":"testcorr: Testing Zero Correlation","author":"Dalla","year":"2021","journal-title":"R package version 0.2.0"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.100.1.e1","article-title":"Unhealthy effects of atmospheric temperature and pressure on the occurrence of myocardial infarction and coronary deaths","volume":"100","author":"Danet","year":"1999","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"89","DOI":"10.1002\/jtsa.12053","article-title":"A generalized block bootstrap for seasonal time series: Generalized seasonal block bootstrap","volume":"35","author":"Dudek","year":"2014","journal-title":"J. Time Ser. Anal"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"24","DOI":"10.1177\/1471082X15588398","article-title":"Sparse Bayesian modelling of underreported count data","volume":"16","author":"Dvorzak","year":"2016","journal-title":"Statist. Mod"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4404","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8306","article-title":"Untangling serially dependent underreported count data for gender-based violence","volume":"38","author":"Fern\u00e1ndez-Fontelo","year":"2019","journal-title":"Statist. Med"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4875","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7026","article-title":"Under-reported data analysis with INAR-hidden Markov chains","volume":"35","author":"Fern\u00e1ndez-Fontelo","year":"2016","journal-title":"Statist. Med"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9876.00187","article-title":"Time series modelling of childhood diseases: A dynamical systems approach","volume":"49","author":"Finkenst\u00e4dt","year":"2000","journal-title":"J. R. Statist. Soc. C"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"553","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijcard.2016.11.155","article-title":"Relationship between ambient temperature and frequency and severity of cardiovascular emergencies: A prospective observational study based on out-of-hospital care data","volume":"228","author":"Hensel","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Cardiol"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1217","DOI":"10.1214\/aos\/1176347265","article-title":"The jackknife and the bootstrap for general stationary observations","volume":"17","author":"Kunsch","year":"1989","journal-title":"Ann. Statist."},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"110","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pulmoe.2020.05.015","article-title":"Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters","volume":"27","author":"Lau","year":"2021","journal-title":"Pulmonology"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B17","volume-title":"Exploring the Limits of Bootstrap","author":"LePage","year":"1992"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"113","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwx196","article-title":"Has underreporting of cigarette consumption changed over time? Estimates derived from US national health surveillance systems between 1965 and 2015","volume":"187","author":"Liber","year":"2018","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B19","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0005568","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0005568","article-title":"Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models","volume":"11","author":"Mordecai","year":"2017","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"147","DOI":"10.1016\/S0378-3758(97)00073-6","article-title":"Estimating with incomplete count data: A Bayesian approach","volume":"66","author":"Moreno","year":"1998","journal-title":"J. Statist. Plan. Infer"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B21","first-page":"85","article-title":"Models for underreporting: A Bernoulli sampling approach for reported counts","volume":"40","author":"Neubauer","year":"2011","journal-title":"Austrian J. Statist"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B22","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e0008528","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0008528","article-title":"Gravitrap deployment for adult Aedes aegypti surveillance and its impact on dengue cases","volume":"14","author":"Ong","year":"2020","journal-title":"PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1084","DOI":"10.1016\/j.scitotenv.2016.01.154","article-title":"Ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular hospitalization: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"550","author":"Phung","year":"2016","journal-title":"Sci. Tot. Envir"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B24","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1303","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1994.10476870","article-title":"The stationary bootstrap","volume":"89","author":"Politis","year":"1994","journal-title":"J. Am. Statist. Assoc"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B25","author":"R Development Core Team","year":"2024"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B26","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"44","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2016.01.015","article-title":"A comparative study on active and passive epidemiological surveillance for dengue in five countries of Latin America","volume":"44","author":"Sarti","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int. J. Inf. Dis."},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B27","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"755","DOI":"10.1097\/01.ede.0000134875.15919.0f","article-title":"Hospital admissions for heart disease: The effects of temperature and humidity","volume":"15","author":"Schwartz","year":"2004","journal-title":"Epidemiology"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B28","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"159","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijar.2017.04.002","article-title":"Dealing with under-reported variables: An information theoretic solution","volume":"85","author":"Sechidis","year":"2017","journal-title":"Int. J. Approx. Reason"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B29","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"662","DOI":"10.1186\/s12879-017-2759-0","article-title":"A novel Bayesian geospatial method for estimating tuberculosis incidence reveals many missed TB cases in Ethiopia","volume":"17","author":"Shaweno","year":"2017","journal-title":"BMC Inf. Dis"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B30","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1481","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2019.1573732","article-title":"A hierarchical framework for correcting under-reporting in count data","volume":"114","author":"Stoner","year":"2019","journal-title":"J. Am. Statist. Assoc"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B31","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"41","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-020-04554-9","article-title":"Spatio-temporal analysis of the main dengue vector populations in Singapore","volume":"14","author":"Sun","year":"2021","journal-title":"Parasit. Vectors"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B32","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1529","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwz110","article-title":"Force of infection and true infection rate of dengue in Singapore: Implications for dengue control and management","volume":"188","author":"Tan","year":"2019","journal-title":"Am. J. Epidemiol"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B33","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"245","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01126.x","article-title":"Threshold autoregression, limit cycles and cyclical data","volume":"42","author":"Tong","year":"1980","journal-title":"J. R. Statist. Soc. B"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B34","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"575","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01180702","article-title":"Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of underreported count data with an application to worker absenteeism","volume":"21","author":"Winkelmann","year":"1996","journal-title":"Empirical Econ"},{"key":"2024112207520766100_asae027-B35","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3548","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2446","article-title":"Cumulative effects of air pollution on public health","volume":"25","author":"Xia","year":"2006","journal-title":"Statist. Med"}],"container-title":["Biometrika"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/biomet\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/biomet\/asae027\/58789094\/asae027.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/biomet\/article-pdf\/111\/4\/1293\/60783748\/asae027.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/biomet\/article-pdf\/111\/4\/1293\/60783748\/asae027.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,22]],"date-time":"2024-11-22T07:54:34Z","timestamp":1732262074000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/biomet\/article\/111\/4\/1293\/7697536"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]]},"references-count":35,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,1]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/biomet\/asae027","relation":{},"ISSN":["0006-3444","1464-3510"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0006-3444","type":"print"},{"value":"1464-3510","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2024,12]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,22]]}}}