{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T09:13:50Z","timestamp":1783588430561,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,29]],"date-time":"2024-02-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1709164800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Joint United Nations Programme"},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI136664"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI136664"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000060","name":"National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AI170249"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AI170249"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000060","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Summary<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently, HIV interventions and policies have required more information at sub-national levels to support local planning, decision-making and resource allocation. Unfortunately, many areas lack sufficient data for deriving stable and reliable results, and this is a critical technical barrier to more stratified estimates. One solution is to borrow information from other areas within the same country. However, directly assuming hierarchical structures within the HIV dynamic models is complicated and computationally time-consuming. In this article, we propose a simple and innovative way to incorporate hierarchical information into the dynamical systems by using auxiliary data. The proposed method efficiently uses information from multiple areas within each country without increasing the computational burden. As a result, the new model improves predictive ability and uncertainty assessment.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxae003","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,3,1]],"date-time":"2024-03-01T01:11:45Z","timestamp":1709255505000},"page":"1049-1061","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Dynamic models augmented by hierarchical data: an application of estimating HIV epidemics at sub-national level"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"25","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0191-5918","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bao","family":"Le","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University , Shortlidge Rd , State College, PA 16802,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiaoyue","family":"Niu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University , Shortlidge Rd , State College, PA 16802,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tim","family":"Brown","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Program, East-West Center, 1601 East-West Road , Honolulu, HI 96848,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey W","family":"Imai-Eaton","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health , 677 Huntington Ave , Boston, MA 02115,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London , Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,2,29]]},"reference":[{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"2024101407515984200_kxae003-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i58","DOI":"10.1136\/sextrans-2012-050689","article-title":"A new infectious disease model for estimating and projecting HIV\/AIDS epidemics","volume":"88","author":"Bao","year":"2012","journal-title":"Sex Trans Infect."},{"issue":"3","key":"2024101407515984200_kxae003-B2","first-page":"2515","article-title":"Estimating hiv epidemics for subnational areas","author":"Bao","year":"2023","journal-title":"Ann Appl Stat"},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"2024101407515984200_kxae003-B3","first-page":"S131","article-title":"The recent epidemiology of HIV and AIDS in Thailand","volume":"8","author":"Brown","year":"1994","journal-title":"AIDS."},{"issue":"1","key":"2024101407515984200_kxae003-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v080.i01","article-title":"brms: an R package for Bayesian multilevel models using stan","volume":"80","author":"B\u00fcrkner","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Stat Softw"},{"issue":"Suppl 2","key":"2024101407515984200_kxae003-B5","first-page":"ii35","article-title":"Has the quality of serosurveillance in low-and middle-income countries improved since the last HIV estimates round in 2007? 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