{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T17:09:05Z","timestamp":1784308145069,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":24,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]],"date-time":"2026-04-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775779200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"funder":[{"name":"an NHMRC Investigator","award":["2034568"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["2034568"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100021260","name":"Australian Skin and Skin Cancer Research Centre","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100021260","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001168","name":"Cancer Council Queensland Next Generation Research Fellowship","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001168","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000023","name":"Government of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000023","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000024","name":"Canadian Institutes of Health Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["LSA 94473"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["LSA 94473"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000024","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001805","name":"Canada Foundation for Innovation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001805","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Cutaneous melanoma is a common cancer, for which risk stratification has been proposed to aid early detection.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To assess the performance of a polygenic risk score (PRS) in predicting the risk of invasive cutaneous melanoma, alone and combined with clinical risk factors.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The PRS was derived from the most recent genome-wide association study meta-analysis of cutaneous melanoma, which included 28 849 patients with melanoma and 78 922 control participants from 20 studies from the UK, the USA, Australia and Europe. Then, it was tuned in the Canadian Longitudinal Studying on Aging cohort, which included 528 patients with melanoma and 17 787 control participants. The PRS was then tested independently against 14 self-reported clinical factors and a clinical prediction model (the MP16 model) in the QSkin prospective cohort, which included 16 282 participants with genetic data aged 40\u201369\u2005years at baseline, among whom 359 were identified with new invasive melanomas during 10\u2005years of follow-up.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>The PRS outperformed any other single clinical risk factor in QSkin (c-index 0.643). The baseline risk model (age, sex, first 10 principal components) had a c-index of 0.603; adding PRS to the baseline model increased the c-index to 0.670 [likelihood ratio test (LRT) P = 1.68 \u00d7 10\u201321]. Adding PRS to the MP16 model significantly enhanced discrimination [MP16 c-index: 0.713; MP16 + PRS c-index: 0.729 (median LRT P = 5.56 \u00d7 10\u201311)] and predicted more true cases in the first and second top deciles (111 for MP16 + PRS vs. 104 for MP16 in the first decile, and 72 for MP16 + PRS vs. 63 for MP16 in the second decile). Across various screening thresholds (10\u201350%), the sensitivity and\/or specificity is higher and the net reclassification improvements were in the range of 0.01\u20130.05, comparing the MP16 + PRS model with the MP16 model.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Incorporating genetic risk information into existing clinical risk tools significantly improves prediction performance for melanoma.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/bjd\/ljag126","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,9]],"date-time":"2026-04-09T11:42:13Z","timestamp":1775734933000},"page":"316-324","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Genetics versus clinical risk scores for melanoma prediction"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"195","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6137-3391","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Huanwei","family":"Wang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Genetics & Skin Cancer Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Statistical Genetics Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hadis","family":"Ghajari","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Genetics & Skin Cancer Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"G J M Shanika R","family":"Jayasinghe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Genetics & Skin Cancer Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8610-3283","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mathias","family":"Seviiri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistical Genetics Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Scott D","family":"Gordon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Genetic Epidemiology Group , Brain and Mental Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel E","family":"Neale","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Aetiology & Prevention Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1462-4968","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nirmala","family":"Pandeya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Cancer Control Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4483-1888","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Catherine M","family":"Olsen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cancer Control Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Frazer Institute, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6731-8142","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stuart","family":"MacGregor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistical Genetics Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2563-9559","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David C","family":"Whiteman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"Cancer Control Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4303-8821","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matthew H","family":"Law","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Genetics & Skin Cancer Group , Population Health Program, QIMR Berghofer, Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Queensland University of Technology , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]},{"name":"School of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Behavioural Sciences, University of Queensland , Brisbane, QLD ,","place":["Australia"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B1","first-page":"472","article-title":"Melanoma staging: evidence-based changes in the American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition cancer staging manual","volume":"67","author":"Gershenwald","year":"2017","journal-title":"CA Cancer J Clin"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1290","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2023.4342","article-title":"Screening for skin cancer: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement","volume":"329","author":"US Preventive Services Task Force","year":"2023","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1075","DOI":"10.1093\/jnci\/djy023","article-title":"Risk stratification for melanoma: models derived and validated in a purpose-designed prospective cohort","volume":"110","author":"Olsen","year":"2018","journal-title":"J Natl Cancer Inst"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"3033","DOI":"10.3390\/cancers14123033","article-title":"Using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) to evaluate melanoma prediction studies","volume":"14","author":"Kaiser","year":"2022","journal-title":"Cancers (Basel)"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B5","volume-title":"Guidelines for Preventive Activities in General Practice","author":"The Royal Australian College of General Practitioners (RACGP)","year":"2024","edition":"10th edition"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1123","DOI":"10.1001\/jamadermatol.2025.3028","article-title":"A risk prediction tool for invasive melanoma","volume":"161","author":"Whiteman","year":"2025","journal-title":"JAMA Dermatol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"68","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2015.17703","article-title":"Familial risk and heritability of cancer among twins in Nordic countries","volume":"315","author":"Mucci","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"619","DOI":"10.1038\/s41568-023-00599-x","article-title":"Polygenic scores in cancer","volume":"23","author":"Yang","year":"2023","journal-title":"Nat Rev Cancer"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"823","DOI":"10.1111\/bjd.20956","article-title":"Independent evaluation of melanoma polygenic risk scores in UK and Australian prospective cohorts","volume":"186","author":"Steinberg","year":"2022","journal-title":"Br J Dermatol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"494","DOI":"10.1038\/s41588-020-0611-8","article-title":"Genome-wide association meta-analyses combining multiple risk phenotypes provide insights into the genetic architecture of cutaneous melanoma susceptibility","volume":"52","author":"Landi","year":"2020","journal-title":"Nat Genet"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"748","DOI":"10.1038\/nature08185","volume":"460","author":"The International Schizophrenia Consortium. Common polygenic variation contributes to risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder","year":"2009","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"767","DOI":"10.1038\/s41588-024-01704-y","article-title":"Leveraging functional genomic annotations and genome coverage to improve polygenic prediction of complex traits within and between ancestries","volume":"56","author":"Zheng","year":"2024","journal-title":"Nat Genet"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"929","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dys107","article-title":"Cohort profile: the QSkin Sun and Health Study","volume":"41","author":"Olsen","year":"2012","journal-title":"Int J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"964","DOI":"10.1001\/jamadermatol.2024.2601","article-title":"Exploring the germline genetics of in situ and invasive cutaneous melanoma: a genome-wide association study meta-analysis","volume":"160","author":"Ingold","year":"2024","journal-title":"JAMA Dermatol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470316696","volume-title":"Multiple Imputation for Nonresponse in Surveys","author":"Rubin","year":"1987"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"889","DOI":"10.1001\/jamadermatol.2016.0939","article-title":"Development and external validation of a melanoma risk prediction model based on self-assessed risk factors","volume":"152","author":"Vuong","year":"2016","journal-title":"JAMA Dermatol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"100117","DOI":"10.1016\/j.anzjph.2023.100117","article-title":"Balancing the risks and benefits of sun exposure: a revised position statement for Australian adults","volume":"48","author":"Neale","year":"2024","journal-title":"Aust N Z J Public Health"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"826","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwh120","article-title":"Does the addition of information on genotype improve prediction of the risk of melanoma and nonmelanoma skin cancer beyond that obtained from skin phenotype?","volume":"159","author":"Dwyer","year":"2004","journal-title":"Am J Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B19","first-page":"954","article-title":"Polygenic risk score improves melanoma risk assessment in a patient cohort from the Veneto region of Italy","volume":"13","author":"Pellegrini","year":"2024","journal-title":"Biology (Basel)"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B20","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"469","DOI":"10.1111\/1753-6405.13147","article-title":"Repeatability of repeatability': the stability of self-reported melanoma risk factors in two independent samples","volume":"45","author":"Mortimore","year":"2021","journal-title":"Aust N Z J Public Health"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B21","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1329","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2012.06.014","article-title":"Good test\u2013retest reproducibility for an instrument to capture self-reported melanoma risk factors","volume":"65","author":"Morze","year":"2012","journal-title":"J Clin Epidemiol"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B22","author":"Butler"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B23","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"661","DOI":"10.1038\/nature05911","article-title":"Genome-wide association study of 14,000 cases of seven common diseases and 3,000 shared controls","volume":"447","author":"The Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium","year":"2007","journal-title":"Nature"},{"key":"2026071712532940900_ljag126-B24","first-page":"69","article-title":"Childhood sun exposure as a risk factor for melanoma: a systematic review of epidemiologic studies","volume":"12","author":"Whiteman","year":"2001","journal-title":"Cancer Causes Control"}],"container-title":["British Journal of Dermatology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/bjd\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/bjd\/ljag126\/68030911\/ljag126.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/bjd\/article-pdf\/195\/2\/316\/68030911\/ljag126.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/bjd\/article-pdf\/195\/2\/316\/68030911\/ljag126.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]],"date-time":"2026-07-17T16:53:37Z","timestamp":1784307217000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/bjd\/article\/195\/2\/316\/8651382"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]]},"references-count":24,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]]},"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,17]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/bjd\/ljag126","relation":{},"ISSN":["0007-0963","1365-2133"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0007-0963","type":"print"},{"value":"1365-2133","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,10]]}}}