{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,21]],"date-time":"2025-02-21T09:08:02Z","timestamp":1740128882249,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":14,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"Supplement_2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714003200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["INV-030046"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["INV-030046"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS). We investigated whether integrating geostatistical methods with a Markov model or a mechanistic transmission model for projecting prevalence forward in time from baseline can improve IAS design strategies. To do this, we applied these 2 methods to prevalence data collected in Kenya, before evaluating and comparing their performance in accurately informing optimal survey design for a range of IAS sampling designs. We found that, although both approaches performed well, the mechanistic method more accurately projected prevalence over time and provided more accurate information for guiding survey design. Both methods performed less well in areas with persistent STH hotspots where prevalence did not decrease despite multiple rounds of PC. Our findings show that these methods can be useful tools for more efficient and accurate targeting of PC. The general framework built in this paper can also be used for projecting prevalence and informing survey design for other neglected tropical diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciae022","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T16:33:28Z","timestamp":1714062808000},"page":"S146-S152","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["A Comparison of Markov and Mechanistic Models for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Prevalence Projections in the Context of Survey Design"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"78","author":[{"given":"Max T","family":"Eyre","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University , Lancaster , United Kingdom"},{"name":"Department of Disease Control, Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Caroline A","family":"Bulstra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam , Rotterdam , The Netherlands"},{"name":"Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Medical Center , Heidelberg , Germany"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Olatunji","family":"Johnson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester , Manchester , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sake J","family":"de Vlas","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam , Rotterdam , The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Peter J","family":"Diggle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University , Lancaster , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6723-9727","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Claudio","family":"Fronterr\u00e8","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School, Lancaster University , Lancaster , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Luc E","family":"Coffeng","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam , Rotterdam , The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"37","DOI":"10.1186\/1756-3305-7-37","article-title":"Global numbers of infection and disease burden of soil transmitted helminth infections in 2010","volume":"7","author":"Pullan","year":"2014","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1521","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(06)68653-4","article-title":"Soil-transmitted helminth infections: ascariasis, trichuriasis, and hookworm","volume":"367","author":"Bethony","year":"2006","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1859","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(18)32335-3","article-title":"Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990\u20132017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017","volume":"392","author":"Kyu","year":"2018","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"author":"World Health Organization","key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B4"},{"author":"World Health Organization","key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B5"},{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S172","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciab192","article-title":"Model-based geostatistical methods enable efficient design and analysis of prevalence surveys for soil-transmitted helminth infection and other neglected tropical diseases","volume":"72","author":"Johnson","year":"2021","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S554","DOI":"10.1093\/infdis\/jiz554","article-title":"Design and analysis of elimination surveys for neglected tropical diseases","volume":"221","author":"Fronterre","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"76","DOI":"10.1186\/s13071-019-3322-1","article-title":"Results of a national school-based deworming programme on soil-transmitted helminths infections and schistosomiasis in Kenya: 2012\u20132017","volume":"12","author":"Mwandawiro","year":"2019","journal-title":"Parasit Vectors"},{"author":"Kamel","key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B9"},{"author":"Zhengming","key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B10"},{"key":"2024042516223615000_ciae022-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"170004","DOI":"10.1038\/sdata.2017.4","article-title":"WorldPop, open data for spatial demography","volume":"4","author":"Tatem","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci 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