{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,2]],"date-time":"2026-09-02T01:54:10Z","timestamp":1788314050122,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"Supplement_2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1714003200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:p>Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation\u2013follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1\u20139 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43\u20131.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and\/or surveillance of high-risk districts.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciae031","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]],"date-time":"2024-04-25T16:31:36Z","timestamp":1714062696000},"page":"S101-S107","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"78","author":[{"given":"Ariktha","family":"Srivathsan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Amza","family":"Abdou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme National de Sant\u00e9 Oculaire , Minist\u00e8re De La Sant\u00e9 Publique, Niamey , Niger"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tawfik","family":"Al-Khatib","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Prevention of Blindness Program, Ministry of Public Health & Population , Sana'a , Yemen"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sue-Chen","family":"Apadinuwe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Health and Medical Services , Denig , Republic of Nauru"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mouctar D","family":"Badiane","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme National de Promotion de La Sant\u00e9 Oculaire, Minist\u00e8re de la Sant\u00e9 et de L'Action sociale , Dakar, S\u00e9n\u00e9gal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Victor","family":"Bucumi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement En Charge des Maladies Tropicales N\u00e9glig\u00e9es, Minist\u00e8re De La Sant\u00e9 Publique Et De La Lutte Contre Le Sida , Bujumbura , Burundi"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tina","family":"Chisenga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Health Public Health Department , Lusaka , Zambia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"George","family":"Kabona","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Neglected Tropical Disease Control Program, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare , Dar Es Salaam , United Republic of Tanzania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"Kabore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme national de lutte contre les maladies tropicales n\u00e9glig\u00e9es, Minist\u00e8re de la sant\u00e9 et de l'hygi\u00e8ne publique , Ouagadougou , Burkina Faso"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sarjo Kebba","family":"Kanyi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The National Eye Health Programme, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Banjul, Kanifing , The Gambia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lucienne","family":"Bella","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme National De Lutte Contre La C\u00e9cit\u00e9, Minist\u00e8re De La Sant\u00e9 Publique, Yaound\u00e9 , Cameroon"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nekoua","family":"M\u2019po","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme National De Lutte Contre Les Maladies Transmissibles, Minist\u00e8re De La Sant\u00e9 , Cotonou , Benin"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Masika","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Services, Ministry of Health , Lilongwe , Malawi"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Abdellahi","family":"Minnih","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement Des Maladies Transmissibles, Minist\u00e8re De La Sant\u00e9 Nouakchott , Nouakchott , Mauritania"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Henis Mior","family":"Sitoe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Direc\u00e7\u00e3o Nacional De Sa\u00fade P\u00fablica Ministerio Da Saude , Maputo , Mozambique"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sailesh","family":"Mishra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nepal Netra Jyoti Sangh , Kathmandu , Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas","family":"Olobio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Trachoma Elimination Programme, Federal Ministry of Health , Abuja , Nigeria"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fatma Juma","family":"Omar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Zanzibar Ministry of Health , Zanzibar Town, Zanzibar"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Isaac","family":"Phiri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Disease Control, Ministry of Health & Child Welfare , Harare , Zimbabwe"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Salimato","family":"Sanha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programa Nacional De Sa\u00fade De Vis\u00e3o, Minsap , Bissau , Guinea-Bissau"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fikre","family":"Seife","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Ministry of Health , Addis Ababa , Ethiopia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shekhar","family":"Sharma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nepal Netra Jyoti Sangh , Kathmandu , Nepal"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rabebe","family":"Tekeraoi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Eye Department, Ministry of Health and Medical Services , South Tarawa , Kiribati"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Lamine","family":"Traore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Programme National de la Sant\u00e9 Oculaire, Minist\u00e8re de la Sant\u00e9 , Bamako , Mali"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Titus","family":"Watitu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Ministry of Health , Nairobi , Kenya"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yak Yak","family":"Bol","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Neglected Tropical Diseases Programme, Ministry of Health , Juba , South Sudan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Borlase","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biology, University of Oxford , Oxford , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael S","family":"Deiner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kristen K","family":"Renneker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health , Decatur, Georgia , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"P J","family":"Hooper","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health , Decatur, Georgia , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Paul M","family":"Emerson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Trachoma Initiative, The Task Force for Global Health , Decatur, Georgia , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andreia","family":"Vasconcelos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford , Oxford , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Benjamin F","family":"Arnold","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Travis C","family":"Porco","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"T D\u00e9irdre","family":"Hollingsworth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford , Oxford , United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas M","family":"Lietman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Seth","family":"Blumberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"},{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of California , San Francisco, California , USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e1221","DOI":"10.1016\/S2214-109X(17)30393-5","article-title":"Global causes of blindness and distance vision impairment 1990\u20132020: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"5","author":"Flaxman","year":"2017","journal-title":"Lancet Glob Health"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"372","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(03)00659-5","article-title":"A critical review of the SAFE strategy for the prevention of blinding trachoma","volume":"3","author":"Kuper","year":"2003","journal-title":"Lancet Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B3","author":"World Health Organization"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B4"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"648106","DOI":"10.1155\/2013\/648106","article-title":"Will the SAFE strategy be sufficient to eliminate trachoma by 2020? Puzzlements and possible solutions","volume":"2013","author":"Lavett","year":"2013","journal-title":"ScientificWorldJournal"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B6","author":"WHO Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B7","author":"WHA51.11"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B8"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B9","author":"World Health Organization. Validation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B10","volume-title":"Ending the neglect to attain the sustainable development goals: a road map for neglected tropical diseases 2021\u20132030","year":"2020"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2011.03.004","article-title":"The epidemiological dynamics of infectious trachoma may facilitate elimination","volume":"3","author":"Lietman","year":"2011","journal-title":"Epidemics"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B12","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2303","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0002303","article-title":"Assessment of transmission in trachoma programs over time suggests no short-term loss of immunity","volume":"7","author":"Liu","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B13","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e462","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000462","article-title":"The development of an age-structured model for trachoma transmission dynamics, pathogenesis and control","volume":"3","author":"Gambhir","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B14","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"91","DOI":"10.1186\/1471-2334-7-91","article-title":"A rationale for continuing mass antibiotic distributions for trachoma","volume":"7","author":"Ray","year":"2007","journal-title":"BMC Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B15","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e458","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0000458","article-title":"When can antibiotic treatments for trachoma be discontinued? Graduating communities in three African countries","volume":"3","author":"Ray","year":"2009","journal-title":"PLoS Negl Trop Dis"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B16","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"213","DOI":"10.1093\/trstmh\/traa171","article-title":"Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination","volume":"115","author":"Borlase","year":"2021","journal-title":"Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B17","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S275","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciy004","article-title":"Models of trachoma transmission and their policy implications: from control to elimination","volume":"66","author":"Lietman","year":"2018","journal-title":"Clin Infect Dis"},{"key":"2024042516221533300_ciae031-B18","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"48","DOI":"10.1016\/j.epidem.2017.01.007","article-title":"Probabilistic forecasts of trachoma transmission at the 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