{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,22]],"date-time":"2026-10-22T03:43:02Z","timestamp":1792640582474,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,20]],"date-time":"2024-11-20T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1732060800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,17]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Tuberculosis (TB) incidence remains disproportionately high in people who migrate to Canada and other countries with low TB incidence, but systematic TB screening and prevention in migrants are often cost-prohibitive for TB programs. We aimed to develop and validate a TB risk-prediction model to inform TB screening decisions in foreign-born permanent residents of Canada.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We developed and validated a proportional baselines landmark supermodel for TB risk prediction using health administrative data from British Columbia and Ontario, 2 distinct provincial healthcare systems in Canada. Demographic (age, sex, refugee status, year of entry, TB incidence in country of origin), TB exposure, and medical (human immunodeficiency virus, kidney disease, diabetes, solid organ transplantation, cancer) covariates were used to derive and test models in British Columbia; 1 model was chosen for external validation in the Ontario cohort. The model's ability to predict 2- and 5-year TB risk in the Ontario cohort was assessed using discrimination and calibration statistics.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The study included 715 423 individuals (including 1407 people with TB disease) in the British Columbia derivation cohort and 958 131 individuals (including 1361 people with TB disease) in the Ontario validation cohort. The 2- and 5-year concordance statistic in the validation cohort was 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI]: .75 to .78) and 0.77 (95% CI: .76 to .78), respectively. Calibration-in-the-large values were 0.14 (95% CI: .08 to .21) and \u22120.05 (95% CI: \u2212.12 to .02) in 2- and 5-year prediction windows.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>This prediction model, available online at https:\/\/tb-migrate.com, may improve TB risk stratification in people who migrate to low-incidence countries and may help inform TB screening policy and guidelines.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciae561","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,19]],"date-time":"2024-11-19T19:22:06Z","timestamp":1732044126000},"page":"644-652","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Predicting Risk of Tuberculosis (TB) Disease in People Who Migrate to a Low-TB Incidence Country: Development and Validation of a Multivariable, Dynamic Risk-Prediction Model Using Health Administrative Data"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"80","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3710-5773","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joseph H","family":"Puyat","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Advancing Health Outcomes, Providence Health Care , Vancouver, British Columbia ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"School of Population and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, British Columbia ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3855-6368","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sarah K","family":"Brode","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Health Network , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Division of Respirology, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"ICES , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hennady","family":"Shulha","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Vaccine Evaluation Centre, BC Children's Hospital Research Institute , Vancouver, British Columbia ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Pediatrics, University of British Columbia , Vancouver, British Columbia ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kamila","family":"Romanowski","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Provincial TB Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control , Vancouver, British Columbia ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Respiratory Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Global and Public Health, McGill University , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dick","family":"Menzies","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Respiratory Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Global and Public Health, McGill University , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"McGill International TB Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8314-9497","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Andrea","family":"Benedetti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Respiratory Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Global and Public Health, McGill University , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"McGill International TB Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-1254-5204","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Raquel","family":"Duchen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICES , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9148-1038","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anjie","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICES , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jiming","family":"Fang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICES , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8674-4286","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Liane","family":"Macdonald","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Ontario , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto , Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ted K","family":"Marras","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Health Network , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Division of Respirology, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth","family":"Rea","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto , Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Toronto Public Health , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeffrey C","family":"Kwong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Health Network , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"ICES , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Public Health Ontario , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto , Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Family and Community Medicine, University of Toronto , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael A","family":"Campitelli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"ICES , Toronto, Ontario ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2341-2166","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jonathon R","family":"Campbell","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Respiratory Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Global and Public Health, McGill University , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"McGill International TB Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3354-1159","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kevin","family":"Schwartzman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Respiratory Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Department of Global and Public Health, McGill University , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"McGill International TB Centre , Montreal, Quebec ,","place":["Canada"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Victoria J","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Provincial TB Services, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control , Vancouver, British Columbia ,","place":["Canada"]},{"name":"Division of Respiratory 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