{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,10]],"date-time":"2026-09-10T19:01:31Z","timestamp":1789066891169,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,13]],"date-time":"2025-02-13T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1739404800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":12,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Research and Development Foundation"},{"name":"Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland"},{"name":"Franciscus Research Foundation"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Background and aims<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Large registries are promising tools to study the epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models to identify IBD cases in administrative data, aiming to determine the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of IBD in the Netherlands.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We developed machine learning models for administrative data to identify IBD cases and classify them on subtype and incidence year. Models were developed in a population-based cohort and externally validated in a hospital cohort. Models were evaluated on Brier score, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration, and accuracy. The best models were used to determine the epidemiology of IBD in the Netherlands between 2013 and 2020.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>For identifying IBD cases the random forest model was best (AUC: 0.97, 95% CI [0.96; 0.97]). The gradient-boosted trees model for subtype was best (accuracy: 0.95, 95% CI [0.94; 0.95]) as was the random forest model for incidence year (0.88, 95% CI [0.86; 0.89]). The prevalence of IBD in the Netherlands was 577.6 (95% CI [566.7; 586.2]) per 100 000 on December 31, 2020, with varying prevalence across the Netherlands. Incidence of IBD was 20.1 (95% CI [18.0; 22.3]) per 100 000 in 2020 and stable over time. Mortality rates of IBD patients rose over time and were 11.6 (95% CI [10.5; 11.8]) per 1000 in 2020 as compared to 9.5 in the general population.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Inflammatory bowel disease cases can be accurately identified using administrative data. The prevalence of IBD in the Netherlands is increasing slower than expected, suggesting a trend towards the epidemiological stage of Prevalence Equilibrium.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ecco-jcc\/jjaf017","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,1,24]],"date-time":"2025-01-24T20:19:14Z","timestamp":1737749954000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Prevalence, incidence, and mortality of inflammatory bowel disease in the Netherlands: development and external validation of machine learning models"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"19","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3052-596X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Reinier C A","family":"van Linschoten","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland , P.O. Box\u00a010900, 3004 BA,\u00a0Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC , P.O. Box\u00a02040, 3000 CA,\u00a0 Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC , P.O. Box\u00a02040, 3000 CA, Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nikki","family":"van Leeuwen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC , P.O. Box\u00a02040, 3000 CA, Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David","family":"van Klaveren","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC , P.O. Box\u00a02040, 3000 CA, Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6981-6516","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Marieke J","family":"Pierik","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, MUMC+ , P.O. Box\u00a05800, 6202 AZ,\u00a0Maastricht ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"NUTRIM School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University , P.O. Box\u00a0616, 6200 MD, Maastricht ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5046-2030","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rob","family":"Creemers","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NUTRIM School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University , P.O. Box\u00a0616, 6200 MD, Maastricht ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Geriatrics, Internal and Intensive Care Medicine (Co-MIK), Sittard-Geleen, Zuyderland Medical Centre , P.O. Box\u00a05, 6130 AA,\u00a0Heerlen ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0482-4640","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Evelien M B","family":"Hendrix","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, MUMC+ , P.O. Box\u00a05800, 6202 AZ,\u00a0Maastricht ,","place":["The Netherlands"]},{"name":"NUTRIM School of Nutrition and Translational Research in Metabolism, Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University , P.O. Box\u00a0616, 6200 MD, Maastricht ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9414-5539","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jan A","family":"Hazelzet","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC , P.O. Box\u00a02040, 3000 CA, Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"C Janneke","family":"van der Woude","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Erasmus MC , P.O. Box\u00a02040, 3000 CA,\u00a0 Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rachel L","family":"West","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland , P.O. Box\u00a010900, 3004 BA,\u00a0Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1578-9123","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Desir\u00e9e","family":"van Noord","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Franciscus Gasthuis & Vlietland , P.O. Box\u00a010900, 3004 BA,\u00a0Rotterdam ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0001","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1169","DOI":"10.1093\/ecco-jcc\/jjx055","article-title":"A 20-year temporal change analysis in incidence, presenting phenotype and mortality, in the Dutch IBDSL cohort\u2014Can diagnostic factors explain the increase in IBD incidence","volume":"11","author":"van den Heuvel","year":"2017","journal-title":"J Crohns Colitis."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0002","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"56","DOI":"10.1038\/s41575-020-00360-x","article-title":"The four epidemiological stages in the global evolution of inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"18","author":"Kaplan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Nat Rev Gastroenterol 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Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0028","author":"Centraal Bureau voor Statistiek","year":"2021"},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0029","author":"Ritchie","year":"2019"},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0030","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1706","DOI":"10.2174\/1389450122666210203193817","article-title":"Inflammatory bowel disease in migrant populations: should we look even further back","volume":"22","author":"Fiorino","year":"2021","journal-title":"Curr Drug Targets."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0031","first-page":"263","article-title":"Frailty in patients with inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"17","author":"Ananthakrishnan","year":"2021","journal-title":"Gastroenterol Hepatol (N Y)."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0032","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2672","DOI":"10.1097\/MIB.0000000000000933","article-title":"Variation in care of inflammatory bowel diseases patients in Crohn\u2019s and colitis foundation of America partners: role of gastroenterologist practice setting in disease outcomes and quality process measures","volume":"22","author":"Weaver","year":"2016","journal-title":"Inflamm Bowel Dis."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0033","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"139","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.15512","article-title":"Fine-scale geographical distribution and ecological risk factors for Crohn\u2019s disease in France (2007-2014)","volume":"51","author":"Genin","year":"2020","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0034","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"230","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-019-1466-7","article-title":"Calibration: the Achilles heel of predictive analytics","volume":"17","author":"Van Calster","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMC Med."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0035","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"i3140","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.i3140","article-title":"External validation of clinical prediction models using big datasets from e-health records or IPD meta-analysis: opportunities and challenges","volume":"353","author":"Riley","year":"2016","journal-title":"BMJ."},{"key":"2025030420582995900_CIT0036","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"635","DOI":"10.1111\/apt.17370","article-title":"Systematic review with meta-analysis: time to diagnosis and the impact of delayed diagnosis on clinical outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease","volume":"57","author":"Jayasooriya","year":"2023","journal-title":"Aliment Pharmacol Ther."}],"container-title":["Journal of Crohn's and Colitis"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ecco-jcc\/advance-article-pdf\/doi\/10.1093\/ecco-jcc\/jjaf017\/61866232\/jjaf017.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"am","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ecco-jcc\/article-pdf\/19\/2\/jjaf017\/61866232\/jjaf017.pdf","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"syndication"},{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ecco-jcc\/article-pdf\/19\/2\/jjaf017\/61866232\/jjaf017.pdf","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,3,4]],"date-time":"2025-03-04T21:42:12Z","timestamp":1741124532000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ecco-jcc\/article\/doi\/10.1093\/ecco-jcc\/jjaf017\/8010968"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"references-count":36,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,4]]}},"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/ecco-jcc\/jjaf017","relation":{},"ISSN":["1873-9946","1876-4479"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1873-9946","type":"print"},{"value":"1876-4479","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published-other":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"published":{"date-parts":[[2025,2]]},"article-number":"jjaf017"}}