{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T06:19:34Z","timestamp":1790144374428,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":51,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,10]],"date-time":"2026-05-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1778371200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":9,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"name":"Wellcome administered by the Cambridge Academy of Therapeutic Sciences","award":["WT-222062\/Z\/20\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["WT-222062\/Z\/20\/Z"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100018956","name":"NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIHR203312"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIHR203312"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100018956","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100006662","name":"NIHR","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100006662","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000276","name":"Department of Health and Social Care","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000276","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"name":"Cancer Research United Kingdom","award":["RCCCDF-May24\/100001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["RCCCDF-May24\/100001"]}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MC_UU_00002\/14 and MC_UU_00040\/03"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MC_UU_00002\/14 and MC_UU_00040\/03"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background &amp; Aims<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Robust evidence for most licensed Crohn\u2019s disease therapies is lacking for perianal fistula outcomes due to a lack of dedicated clinical trials. This study aimed to use a Bayesian framework to determine the efficacy of medical therapies for perianal fistulizing Crohn\u2019s disease (PFCD).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A formal prior elicitation exercise was conducted by a group of 11 gastroenterologists and 5 statisticians. Consensus priors were developed leveraging both existing published data and clinical expertise, to determine one-year fistula remission rates for medical treatments with 5 different mechanisms of action (anti-TNF, anti-integrin, anti-IL-12\/23, anti-IL-23, and JAK inhibitor). Consensus priors on efficacy of each treatment were determined relative to an elicited consensus prior for placebo control.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Consensus priors were obtained for the likelihood of fistula remission at 1 year. The prior mean, together with a 90% prior credible interval, of the one-year fistula remission rate was 0.22 (0.05, 0.46) for placebo, 0.58 (0.09, 0.96) for intravenous infliximab, 0.39 (0.06, 0.82) for adalimumab, 0.53 (0.09, 0.93) for subcutaneous infliximab, 0.24 (0.03, 0.60) for intravenous vedolizumab, 0.44 (0.05, 0.90) for upadacitinib, 0.34 (0.04, 0.77) for ustekinumab, and 0.36 (0.04, 0.82) for anti-IL-23 specific agents. Oral upadacitinib and subcutaneous infliximab demonstrated the highest probability for efficacy, alongside intravenous infliximab.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We have conducted the first Bayesian prior elicitation exercise in inflammatory bowel disease. The generated priors could be used to enhance the design and analysis of clinical trials in PFCD by improving estimation of treatment efficacy, minimizing sample sizes, and potentially reducing the need for placebo control arms.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ecco-jcc\/jjag061","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,14]],"date-time":"2026-04-14T11:29:29Z","timestamp":1776166169000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["Bayesian prior elicitation on the efficacy of medical therapies in perianal fistulizing Crohn\u2019s disease"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"20","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3426-6408","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Nurulamin M","family":"Noor","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust , Cambridge,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Department of Medicine, University of Cambridge School of 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Oxford,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Klaartje B","family":"Kok","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Royal London Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust , London,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James O","family":"Lindsay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Royal London Hospital, Barts Health NHS Trust , London,","place":["United Kingdom"]},{"name":"Blizard Institute, Barts and The London Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London , London,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gordon W","family":"Moran","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Institute of Health Research Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, University of Nottingham and Nottingham University Hospitals , Nottingham,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2611-4260","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Kamal V","family":"Patel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, St George\u2019s University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust , London,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3670-6545","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Shaji","family":"Sebastian","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"IBD Unit, Department of Gastroenterology, Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust , Hull,","place":["United Kingdom"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5855-9873","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tim","family":"Raine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology, Cambridge University 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