{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,6]],"date-time":"2026-06-06T02:07:46Z","timestamp":1780711666847,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":88,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]],"date-time":"2026-05-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1779408000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":21,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia occurring in hospitalized patients. NOAF confers a significant risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the form of symptomatic tachyarrhythmia, heart failure, stroke and sudden cardiac death. It is unclear what the cumulative incidence of NOAF is in the hospitalized medical (non-surgical) patient. MEDLINE and Embase were searched for studies published between 01 January 2000 and 10 March 2026. All studies reporting the cumulative incidence of NOAF in hospitalized medical (non-surgical) patients were included. The pooled cumulative incidence of NOAF, 95% confidence intervals (CI), and 95% prediction intervals (PI) were computed using a random-effects model. The inconsistency index (I2) was calculated to measure heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were also performed. A study protocol was registered with the PROSPERO database of systematic reviews (CRD42024626333) A total of 10 323 articles were identified from our searches, and of these 62 met the inclusion criteria. The cumulative incidence of NOAF across all studies was 99 474 (crude incidence 2.4%) out of 3 608 663 patients. The pooled cumulative incidence of NOAF was 9% (95% CI: 7\u201311%), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 99.9%) and a wide prediction interval (1\u201342%). In meta-regression, ICU setting (OR 2.46, 95% CI: 1.22\u20135.00; P = 0.013) and prospective study design (OR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.01\u20132.95; P = 0.044) were independently associated with higher NOAF incidence, while year of publication and use of administrative data were not significant. Subgroup analyses demonstrated consistently higher incidence in prospective and critically ill populations. The cumulative incidence of NOAF in patients hospitalized for acute medical illness varies significantly dependent on disease severity and methods to detect it. Attempts to pool data across studies are limited by differences in study design, patient populations and disease severity.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/ehjopen\/oeag080","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]],"date-time":"2026-05-22T11:21:29Z","timestamp":1779448889000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["The cumulative incidence of atrial fibrillation in the hospitalized medical patient: a systematic review and meta-analysis"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"6","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9445-2582","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Hani","family":"Essa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, Institute of Life Course and Medical Sciences, William Henry Duncan Building, University of Liverpool , Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"University Hospitals of Liverpool Group, Royal Liverpool University Hospital , Mount Vernon Street, Liverpool, L7 8XP ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital , 6 West Derby Street, Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ashwin","family":"Balu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, Institute of Life Course and Medical Sciences, William Henry Duncan Building, University of Liverpool , Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"University Hospitals of Liverpool Group, Royal Liverpool University Hospital , Mount Vernon Street, Liverpool, L7 8XP ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital , 6 West Derby Street, Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Gregory Y H","family":"Lip","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital , 6 West Derby Street, Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg University , Selma Lagerl\u00f8fs Vej 249, 9260 Gistrup, Aalborg ,","place":["Denmark"]},{"name":"Medical University of Bialystok , ul. Jana Kili\u0144skiego 1, 15-089 Bia\u0142ystok ,","place":["Poland"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3408-8798","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ingeborg","family":"Welters","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiovascular and Metabolic Medicine, Institute of Life Course and Medical Sciences, William Henry Duncan Building, University of Liverpool , Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"University Hospitals of Liverpool Group, Royal Liverpool University Hospital , Mount Vernon Street, Liverpool, L7 8XP ,","place":["UK"]},{"name":"Liverpool Centre for Cardiovascular Science at University of Liverpool, Liverpool John Moores University and Liverpool Heart & Chest Hospital , 6 West Derby Street, Liverpool, L7 8TX ,","place":["UK"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"286","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1424","DOI":"10.1016\/j.chest.2018.03.040","article-title":"Atrial fibrillation in the ICU","volume":"154","author":"Bosch","year":"2018","journal-title":"Chest"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e018548","DOI":"10.1161\/JAHA.120.018548","article-title":"Natural course of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery","volume":"10","author":"Hyun","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Am Heart Assoc"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B3","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1648","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.114.014058","article-title":"Long-term outcomes of secondary atrial fibrillation in the community: the Framingham Heart Study","volume":"131","author":"Lubitz","year":"2015","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B4","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1045","DOI":"10.1007\/s12630-021-01944-0","article-title":"Incidence and recurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation detected during hospitalization for non-cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis","volume":"68","author":"McIntyre","year":"2021","journal-title":"Can J Anaesth"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B5","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e007716","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCEP.119.007716","article-title":"Initial precipitants and recurrence of atrial fibrillation","volume":"13","author":"Wang","year":"2020","journal-title":"Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e2213945","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2022.13945","article-title":"Thromboembolic risk in patients with pneumonia and new-onset atrial fibrillation not receiving anticoagulation therapy","volume":"5","author":"S\u00f8gaard","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA Netw Open"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B7","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e269","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0b013e318214876d","article-title":"2011 ACCF\/AHA\/HRS focused updates incorporated into the ACC\/AHA\/ESC 2006 guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation\/American Heart Association task force on practice guidelines","volume":"123","author":"Fuster","year":"2011","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B8","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"202","DOI":"10.1007\/s00392-016-1040-7","article-title":"Prognosis in patients with atrial fibrillation and a presumed \u201ctemporary cause\u201d in a community-based cohort study","volume":"106","author":"Fauchier","year":"2017","journal-title":"Clin Res Cardiol"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B9","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"e676","DOI":"10.1161\/CIR.0000000000001133","article-title":"Atrial fibrillation occurring during acute hospitalization: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association","volume":"147","author":"Chyou","year":"2023","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B10","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"904","DOI":"10.1007\/s00134-025-07895-0","article-title":"Atrial fibrillation in critical illness: state of the art","volume":"51","author":"Sibley","year":"2025","journal-title":"Intensive Care Med"},{"key":"2026060521563302300_oeag080-B11","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"205","DOI":"10.1164\/rccm.201603-0618OC","article-title":"Incidence, predictors, and outcomes of new-onset atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients with sepsis. 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