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Workers within 10 miles receive only 11.2% (6.6%) of nationwide welfare (employment) short-run gains, with at least 35.9% (62.0%) accruing to out-of-state workers, despite much larger per-worker impacts for the closest workers. Local incidence by demographic category is very sensitive to shock composition, but different shocks produce similar demographic incidence further from the shock. Furthermore, the remaining heterogeneity in incidence at the state or national level can reverse patterns of heterogeneous demographic impacts at the local level. Overall, the results suggest that reduced-form approaches using distant locations as controls can produce accurate estimates of local shock impacts on local workers, but that the distribution of local impacts badly approximates shocks\u2019 statewide or national incidence.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1093\/ej\/ueaf092","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,9,21]],"date-time":"2025-09-21T11:37:15Z","timestamp":1758454635000},"page":"1343-1393","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Contrasting the Local and National Demographic Incidence of Local Labour Demand Shocks"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"136","author":[{"given":"Richard K","family":"Mansfield","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Colorado-Boulder 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