{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,11]],"date-time":"2026-06-11T21:25:45Z","timestamp":1781213145003,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":25,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,1]],"date-time":"2025-07-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1751328000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Mortality prediction models (MPMs) play a crucial role in risk assessment for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR), but their external validity in Japanese patients remains unclear. This study evaluated the performance of existing short-term (30-day) and long-term (1-year) MPMs with Japanese TAVR patients.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We analysed patients who underwent TAVR between 2016 and 2023 in the KPUM transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) registry, a prospective multicentre registry in Japan. Five short-term (30-day) MPMs (Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality [STS-PRoM], French Aortic National CoreValve and Edwards registry [FRANCE-2], Observational Study Of Appropriateness, Efficacy And Effectiveness of AVR-TAVR Procedures For the Treatment Of Severe Symptomatic Aortic Stenosis registry [OBSERVANT], American College of Cardiology-TAVI [ACC-TAVI], and Netherlands Heart Registration [NHR] models) and 3 long-term (1-year) MPMs (Optimized CathEter vAlvular iNtervention-TAVI [OCEAN-TAVI], Osaka University, and TAVR-Risk [TARI] models) were validated. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) for discrimination and calibration plots\/slope\/intercept for calibration. Intercept recalibration was performed for short-term MPMs.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Among 1756 patients analysed for short-term mortality, the mortality risk was 1.4% (n\u2009=\u200925), while among 1235 patients analysed for long-term mortality, the mortality risk was 14.5% (n\u2009=\u2009179), respectively. Among short-term MPMs, NHR (AU-ROC: 0.82) and STS-PRoM (0.78) showed the highest discrimination, though all models overestimated mortality risk, which improved after intercept recalibration. Among long-term MPMs, the OCEAN-TAVI and Osaka University models (AU-ROC: 0.75) showed the highest discrimination, with the OCEAN-TAVI demonstrating the best calibration.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>\n               <jats:sec>\n                  <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In Japanese TAVR patients, STS-PRoM and NHR models showed superior short-term performance after recalibration, while OCEAN-TAVI demonstrated the best overall long-term performance. Future research should explore machine learning-based models to improve risk prediction accuracy and clinical applicability.<\/jats:p>\n               <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/ejcts\/ezaf227","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2025,7,9]],"date-time":"2025-07-09T15:55:20Z","timestamp":1752076520000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":1,"title":["External Validation of Mortality Prediction Models in Japanese Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement Registry"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"67","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0006-6732-4538","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Ryo","family":"Shibata","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3387-9774","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tomotsugu","family":"Seki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]},{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Kizugawa Hospital , Kyoto, 610-0101,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yuki","family":"Takeda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takuma","family":"Iwaya","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eisuke","family":"Kataoka","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tatsuya","family":"Kitada","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Motoyoshi","family":"Takahara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ryotaro","family":"Tani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Shunsuke","family":"Nakamura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kishiwada Tokushukai Hospital , Osaka, 596-8522,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9855-9360","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tomotaka","family":"Fujimoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4143-138X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Masaki","family":"Yashige","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kazuaki","family":"Takamatsu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Okamoto Memorial Hospital , Kyoto, 613-0034,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nobuyasu","family":"Ito","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Nishinomiya Watanabe Cardiovascular Center , Hyogo, 662-0911,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kensuke","family":"Kuwabara","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kishiwada Tokushukai Hospital , Osaka, 596-8522,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoji","family":"Nagata","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Fukui Cardiovascular Center , Fukui, 910-0833,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michiyo","family":"Yamano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Tetsuhiro","family":"Yamano","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Takeshi","family":"Nakamura","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 602-8566,","place":["Japan"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Satoaki","family":"Matoba","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Kyoto Prefectural University of Medicine , Kyoto, 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