{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,23]],"date-time":"2026-07-23T19:08:02Z","timestamp":1784833682921,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1782777600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100018722","name":"Jaap Schouten Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100018722","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Individuals with prior myocardial infarction (MI) show increased risk of heart failure (HF), yet current risk prediction models leave room for improvement. We aimed to develop and validate a clinically viable prediction model for incident HF in persons with prevalent MI in a general population, and explore sex- and MI subtype-specific differences.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We analysed UK Biobank participants with prior MI but absence of HF at baseline. Sociodemographic factors, clinical variables, and 59 blood biomarkers were included. The primary endpoint was the first in-hospital HF diagnosis. Backward selected Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent predictors of incident HF. Model performance was assessed via discrimination (C-index), using internal- and hold-out validation, and calibration.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>A total of 4743 participants with prevalent MI; 81.4% male, median (P25\u2013P75) age 62 (58\u201366) years, were included. During a median follow-up of 12.1 (11.1\u201313.0) years, 767 (16.2%) developed HF. Sixteen independent predictors were identified and eleven remained significant (P &amp;lt; .05) after treating all-cause mortality as a competing risk. These included several well-established predictors (age, body mass index, smoking, atrial fibrillation, diabetes) as well as haemoglobin [HR per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase: 0.88 (95% CI: 0.79\u20130.96)], mean reticulocyte volume {HR: [1.13 (95% CI: 1.03\u20131.23)], and neutrophil percentage [HR: 1.12 (95% CI: 1.03\u20131.21)], monocyte count [HR:1.11 (95% CI, 1.06\u20131.16)]. A trend towards an interaction (P &amp;lt; .1) between sex and MI subtype was present. Model discrimination was modest (C-index = 0.67) and calibration was adequate.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Our study identifies several clinically accessible blood biomarkers as important risk factors for HF in post-MI individuals, and suggests interactions between sex and MI subtype. Further model refinement and external validation are needed.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/eschf\/xvag187","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,30]],"date-time":"2026-06-30T11:21:29Z","timestamp":1782818489000},"source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Prediction of incident heart failure in men and women with a history of myocardial infarction"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"13","author":[{"given":"Phoebe","family":"Chan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam 3000 CA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas F","family":"Kok","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam 3000 CA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Robert M A","family":"van der Boon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam 3000 CA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Navin","family":"Suthahar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam 3000 CA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Rudolf A","family":"de Boer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam 3000 CA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2559-7128","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eric","family":"Boersma","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. Box 2040, Rotterdam 3000 CA ,","place":["The Netherlands"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2115-9745","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Isabella","family":"Kardys","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Cardiology, Erasmus MC, Cardiovascular Institute, Thorax Centre , P.O. 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