{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,4]],"date-time":"2026-10-04T21:31:11Z","timestamp":1791149471235,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2013,8,1]],"date-time":"2013-08-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1375315200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/pages\/standard-publication-reuse-rights"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2013,8,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a strong risk factor for heart failure (HF); HF onset in patients with AF is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Risk factors that predict HF in individuals with AF in the community are not well established.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods and results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We examined clinical variables related to the 10-year incidence of HF in 725 individuals (mean 73.3 years, 45% women) with documented AF in the Framingham Heart Study. Event rates for incident HF (n = 161, 48% in women) were comparable in women (4.30 per 100 person-years) and men (3.34 per 100 person-years). Age, body mass index, ECG LV hypertrophy, diabetes, significant murmur, and history of myocardial infarction were positively associated with incident HF in multivariable models (C-statistic 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.67\u20130.75). We developed a risk algorithm for estimating absolute risk of HF in AF patients with good model fit and calibration (adjusted calibration \u03c72 statistic 7.29; P\u03c72 = 0.61). Applying the algorithm, 47.6% of HF events occurred in the top tertile in men compared with 13.1% in the bottom tertile, and 58.4% in women in the upper tertile compared with 18.2% in the lowest category. For HF type, women had a non-significantly higher incidence of HF with preserved EF compared with men.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We describe advancing age, LV hypertrophy, body mass index, diabetes, significant heart murmur, and history of myocardial infarction as clinical predictors of incident HF in individuals with AF. A risk algorithm may help identify individuals with AF at high risk of developing HF.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1093\/eurjhf\/hft041","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2013,4,17]],"date-time":"2013-04-17T23:47:55Z","timestamp":1366242475000},"page":"843-849","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":119,"title":["Risk Assessment for Incident Heart Failure in Individuals With Atrial Fibrillation"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"15","author":[{"given":"Renate B.","family":"Schnabel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Department of General and Interventional Cardiology, University Heart Center Hamburg Eppendorf , Hamburg ,","place":["Germany"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michiel","family":"Rienstra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s 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,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Levy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center for Population Studies, Division of Intramural Research, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health , Bethesda, MD ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael J.","family":"Pencina","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health , Boston, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jo\u00e3o D.","family":"Fontes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jared W.","family":"Magnani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine , Boston, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David D.","family":"McManus","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Cardiology Division, Department of Medicine, University of Massachusetts Medical School , Worcester, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven A.","family":"Lubitz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cardiovascular Research Center and Cardiac Arrhythmia Service, Massachusetts General Hospital , Boston, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas M.","family":"Tadros","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thomas J.","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NHLBI\u2019s and Boston University\u2019s Framingham Heart Study , Framingham, MA ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Cardiology Division, Massachusetts General Hospital , Boston, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Patrick T.","family":"Ellinor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Cardiovascular Research Center and Cardiac Arrhythmia Service, Massachusetts General Hospital , Boston, MA ,","place":["USA"]},{"name":"Cardiology Division, Massachusetts General Hospital , Boston, MA ,","place":["USA"]}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ramachandran 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